The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:


Yeah, between the childish sniping, along with the wannabe comedians posting the same lame, unfunny bits over and over again--not to mention the obsessive model-sitting--it often takes a lot of diligence to find anything of value. It's there; you just have to work hard when seraching for it. ;-)


Thats true, there is some good stuff on here. Just hidden somewhere in a buried treasure box.
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324. IKE
Quoting spartankicker:


Dr. Jeff said "However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted."

If that's the case, why take a model run as if it's fact that is still 10-15 days out?

I'm a meterological consultant for a major insurance company. I certainly don't know everything about the tropics, but I know it's foolish to look at a 15-day model like that and come to a conclusion that it will be quiet. Climatology and looking at data (aka FACTS) still trumps reading long range models. That's why I love reading StormW's reports everyday to see if my opinions stack up to his.


I never said it was fact. Just stating what it showed. I added the great news part because I'm a down-caster and want no death or destruction from a tropical system.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting angiest:


But there also seems to be the class that says that anyone watching the developments in the model is automatically model casting.


those people get carried away then, nothing wrong with seeing what the models are saying, as long as you realize that the next run could be totally different
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Quoting IKE:


But if it showed it slamming into the east coast....watch out.

This blog is amusing. Actually predictable and amusing.


Exactly!
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I've lurked some the past few days and I noticed some questions like 'Is this trough setup something that will be a anomaly for this season that makes most storms go out to sea?', well for a average season a trough NOT being there is a anomaly, thats why you see most major CV systems like Bill, Karl 2004, ect go out to sea. That being said 4/5 of our systems have affected the United States, all 5 of our systems affected land (Bermuda and Colin) so that should be a telling of where storms might go if a storm forms when a trough is lifting out and a ridge is building back in. So far, luck has been on our side, but it might not last.
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319. MahFL
Quoting miamiheat:
,,,,,," The great active 2010 hurricane season",,,,,yeah right!!


You mean Hyper Active.......
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
Its the same crap every day during this time. People come on here and think there opinion is king, and then put other peoples comments/opinions to the dirt. It's retarded. Thats why you don't see me on here that much during the day time. This blog just isn't the same that it used to be years ago.


Yeah, between the childish sniping, along with the wannabe comedians posting the same lame, unfunny bits over and over again--not to mention the obsessive model-sitting--it often takes a lot of diligence to find anything of value. It's there; you just have to work hard when seraching for it. ;-)
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I've got a great idea. Everybody go the whole day without looking at any model. Simply observe, analyze and discuss "current" conditions only.


Fat Chance!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am in line with the 2nd one and I think that is how the models should be used


But there also seems to be the class that says that anyone watching the developments in the model is automatically model casting.
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313. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


yeah, Ike.


That's all I show.
Quoting angiest:


Nah, I think some people simply latch on to a model when it seems to verify their preconceived notions. Strong CV storms all recurve, and GFS proves it! As a for instance.

And then some people are actually interested in watching how the model develops everything in a particular run, and seeing how it changes through time.


That's exactly what it is and my preconceived notion is...this one isn't coming near the USA. If I'm wrong...crow me.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Out till tonight, not staying home on my day off lol... Have fun, be good and I do expect either 95L or a yellow circle for the TWO when I get back. IKE, save me some crow will ya, just in case I am wrong?
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Quoting IKE:
GFS shows nothing else through September 4th. That is great news!


Dr. Jeff said "However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted."

If that's the case, why take a model run as if it's fact that is still 10-15 days out?

I'm a meterological consultant for a major insurance company. I certainly don't know everything about the tropics, but I know it's foolish to look at a 15-day model like that and come to a conclusion that it will be quiet. Climatology and looking at data (aka FACTS) still trumps reading long range models. That's why I love reading StormW's reports everyday to see if my opinions stack up to his.
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Quoting angiest:


Nah, I think some people simply latch on to a model when it seems to verify their preconceived notions. Strong CV storms all recurve, and GFS proves it! As a for instance.

And then some people are actually interested in watching how the model develops everything in a particular run, and seeing how it changes through time.


I am in line with the 2nd one and I think that is how the models should be used
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Hello everybody!!!!,I wonder if anybody has notice the spin North East of Puerto Rico?, it seems like this feature have a nice spin,any comments???,the location of this clouds remind me where Hurricane Andrew was born,god forfeit any repeat of that event!!!!!!!
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Its the same crap every day during this time. People come on here and think there opinion is king, and then put other peoples comments/opinions to the dirt. It's retarded. Thats why you don't see me on here that much during the day time. This blog just isn't the same that it used to be years ago.
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it is very unwise to look at a model for cyclongenesis past 192 hours, a lot times they show multiple 'ghost storms' and a lot of times they show nothing at all and in that time frame something spins up, like Claudette. Now, for what patterns might be in store (ridging, trough, ect) it is always smart to see if there is any consensus on what kind of consensus the models show. For example, most of the models show a trough off the east coast that should deflect this system out to sea.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
276. alaina1085 4:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

Sadly it is pretty obvious that some put too much stock in the models. They are a tool that can give us a look into the future. It doesn't mean what they show will or will not happen. Can they be right? Of course, but all they are is a tool more than anything.

Also to only show the models when they do not show much activity is being fairly ignorant as well.


Nah, I think some people simply latch on to a model when it seems to verify their preconceived notions. Strong CV storms all recurve, and GFS proves it! As a for instance.

And then some people are actually interested in watching how the model develops everything in a particular run, and seeing how it changes through time.
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256. reedzone 4:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
People are starting to make sense on here now :)

what? and i missed it!

i thought it was funny!
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300. DestinJeff 4:59 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

you said it not me lol
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298. IKE
Models are only garbage when they show no development. Have em show multiple storms in a 16 day period and some WU bloggers will jump all over it. The wave train is open for business...multiple storms are about to happen.

Oh well...if the GFS is correct, everyone on here gets their wish...a powerful cane that bothers no one.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting DestinJeff:


Just the opposite, actually. Which is why I can mock the debate.
I figured i didn't need a sarcasm flag for you.
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Points:

JP - 1
IKE - 1
DestinJeff - 3
Reed 11 all the same
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Good Morning/Afternoon WUnderbloggers!
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Y'all need to quit busting on Reed and listen to him. You guys are getting to worked up on something that hasn't even formed yet. Let it form and then we will see what will happen to it.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Well, maybe not. Haven't you heard? Models for systems not yet formed are useless.

I think it is actually a Commonlaw Rule of the Road.

So are smart (you know what) comments.....
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


they are only garbage when they shows 3 or 4 storms, but when they only show 1 or none; then they are to be trusted

*rolls eyes*


You hit the nail on the head.
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276. alaina1085 4:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

Sadly it is pretty obvious that some put too much stock in the models. They are a tool that can give us a look into the future. It doesn't mean what they show will or will not happen. Can they be right? Of course, but all they are is a tool more than anything.

Also to only show the models when they do not show much activity is being fairly ignorant as well.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Sure there is:
Epitahhs,
Survey data
Pharao's faces
Bench marks.
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7 to 10 days out is a lot of time. I am having a hard time seeing how this recurves when the troph is located pretty far north and for that, a weak troph.

Did anyone notice the vorticity on all levels for this system leaving the coast? 850, 500, 250 - all layers are very strong.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
angiest yes tha is very true even I don't trust the models beyond 72-102 hours out
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Quoting DestinJeff:
The uselessness of models for systems that have not yet formed does indeed appear to be set in stone.

*I recommend using the type stone where you can add water and it becomes workable again.


You add alot of humor to the blog, that's awesome!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


He Sure did:

At 36 hours, ridging filling in between the A/B high and Florida. There's also a small ridge just off to the west of the depression THAT MEAN NO FISH STORM....

*snicker*
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Man, there is more Mob Mentality here than in the Gambino Crime Family.
Give this to the Gambino,s......
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Like GW theory.


* haha, funny. don't get started. Just mocking the debate, that is all. *
Young man, have you no respect whatsoever?
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Actually the 12Z GFS generates a Typhoon very close to the Chinese coast, typical of La Nina summers, btw.

To-be Danielle is still forecast to recurve into the North Atlantic = fish storm.

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Quoting reedzone:
Sorry DestinJeff, just adding some reality to the blog ;)
NOTHING IS SET IN STONE


Sure there is:
Epitahhs,
Survey data
Pharao's faces
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279. IKE
Quoting angiest:


I thought long-range models are garbage. :)


I've never said that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
,,,,,," The great active 2010 hurricane season",,,,,yeah right!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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