The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting spartankicker:


Models also showed Hurricane Ike hitting South Florida and moving back into the Atlantic for days as well, to the point that the NHC was even forecasting it.

We all know how that one ended....

The fact of the matter is that models that far in advance are not always trustworthy, evem with developed systems.

I'd love for this to be a fish storm, but climatology dictates that we look at the factors at hand. StormW's blog today does a great job of that.


That is exactly why I always caution people to keep an eye on a storm, even if it appears to be going away from them. Even the less likely scenario is not a 0% chance, and so I will certainly keep an eye on this storm (should it develop) for two reasons, 1 is because it is a hobby of mine, and 2 is because it will be a potential threat to me all the way out here in Texas until dies or tracks east.

Remember, Ike, as did Betsy, actually started to make the northward turn (in close to the same area, to boot) before being deflected and winding up in the GOM.
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Do you ever think that this could accurately describe some down and hyper casters?
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Someone should post the 2:00pm TWO...
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Quoting IKE:
Get ready for 95L on the eastern ATL wave...future Danielle. Then the GFDL and HWRF will spin it up. Looks like a major in the making.


Possibly.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH


Yes! Finally!
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Quoting IKE:
Get ready for 95L on the eastern ATL wave...future Danielle. Then the GFDL and HWRF will spin it up. Looks like a major in the making.


IF it spins up....who really knows?
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Quoting kramus:


I'm starting to understand why you're homeless.


Lol. No Sweety, that has to do with me being old. The homeless thing is a long story. ;)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Reading the last couple of pages, one would think it was 3:15 am, or something...
A LOT of incredibly Obscure stuff and whatnot.
I love this blog, for the very reasons that some people complain bitterly about it.
I never could quite understand the aversion to diversionary posts, when there really is very little to be diverted from....
But then again, I was always a little strange...
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Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Thanks for "keepin it real". I'm going to go discuss some models responsibly with some responsible friends of mine.
Be sure to appoint a designated blogger.
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
20% on CV wave.


That oughta get'em movin
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413. IKE
Get ready for 95L on the eastern ATL wave...future Danielle. Then the GFDL and HWRF will spin it up. Looks like a major in the making.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting angiest:


Boy that ones gotten lost in all this. For days the GFS has shown, in every run:

1 A CV storm
2 said CV storm is very intense
3 said CV storm recurves

By number 3 I mean it has never once shown this storm (that I recall) doing more than skirting the Caribbean. Now,. recurvature has happened everyone from post landfall in Florida to east of Bermuda. But those three trends may actually be telling us something useful...


Models also showed Hurricane Ike hitting South Florida and moving back into the Atlantic for days as well, to the point that the NHC was even forecasting it.

We all know how that one ended....

The fact of the matter is that models that far in advance are not always trustworthy, even with developed systems.

I'd love for this to be a fish storm, but climatology dictates that we look at the factors at hand. StormW's blog today does a great job of that.
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we have 2 yellow circles now folks
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409. IKE
There it is...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
20% on CV wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

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Quoting BahaHurican:
You don't mock "the debate"; you only mock the side you don't support.... be real man....

Seems to me there's a lot of pple who don't understand that if nobody talks about the models.... well, what is there to talk about? If u are ill-advised enough to panic on the basis of a model run on a storm that hasn't formed yet, well... u are ill-advised. I don't see the harm in responsible people discussing responsibly, which a lot of us certainly can handle. The others.... well, I wish them the best on their journey...

Thanks for "keepin it real". I'm going to go discuss some models responsibly with some responsible friends of mine.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I don't support either side. Apathy has gotten me this far, why start caring now?


Ummm...because your future great-grandchildren will think more highly of you if you don't suceed in totally trashing the planet you left for them, maybe?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


very well said +1


Ah that's what that (+1) means. DOH!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Theres a cure for Model-itis.

Check the Local CONUS or take a walk outside.
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339 An Orange Circle I haven't seen one of those in weeks haha I'm still not sure what to think of "future Danielle" I wish everyone would just sit and wait for it to form before we list all the scenarios
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


and you were there

or were you? *raises eyebrow*

Trendy is 'now',
Nostalgia is coming,
And we will be there.

Pretty dismal prospect, if you ask me...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, it just eats a tropical storm.


Wow..thats crazy! Note the TS is actually moving in a bad direction towards the Caribbean..lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
irregardless=regardless; recurvation=recurvature....

And yes, recurvature is a scientific term.... guess the guys who made it up studied a bit more math than we do these days.

You don't mock "the debate"; you only mock the side you don't support.... be real man....

Seems to me there's a lot of pple who don't understand that if nobody talks about the models.... well, what is there to talk about? If u are ill-advised enough to panic on the basis of a model run on a storm that hasn't formed yet, well... u are ill-advised. I don't see the harm in responsible people discussing responsibly, which a lot of us certainly can handle. The others.... well, I wish them the best on their journey...


HARUMPH! Sorry. kankunkid started it. Seriously, I agree. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665


ex L5 still spinning. like the path it seems to be taking to!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
irregardless=regardless; recurvation=recurvature....

And yes, recurvature is a scientific term.... guess the guys who made it up studied a bit more math than we do these days.

You don't mock "the debate"; you only mock the side you don't support.... be real man....

Seems to me there's a lot of pple who don't understand that if nobody talks about the models.... well, what is there to talk about? If u are ill-advised enough to panic on the basis of a model run on a storm that hasn't formed yet, well... u are ill-advised. I don't see the harm in responsible people discussing responsibly, which a lot of us certainly can handle. The others.... well, I wish them the best on their journey...


very well said +1
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Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC... Trough/ULL off of the east coast.
The GEM still has a low off of Tampa Bay next week. Link Are you trough-casting?...jk..
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Not even close to being the same. Recurve is a verb meaning to curve or bend something backward. Where TCs are concerned, recurvation occurs when a westbound storm is picked up and flung "back" to the northeast. OTOH, irregardless is an outdated, internally-redundant, and "humorous" portmanteau of irrespective and regardless that means the same thing as, well, regardless.

So there you have it: recurve is scientific; irregardless is just silly.
irregardless=regardless; recurvation=recurvature....

And yes, recurvature is a scientific term.... guess the guys who made it up studied a bit more math than we do these days.

Quoting DestinJeff:


Just the opposite, actually. Which is why I can mock the debate.
You don't mock "the debate"; you only mock the side you don't support.... be real man....

Seems to me there's a lot of pple who don't understand that if nobody talks about the models.... well, what is there to talk about? If u are ill-advised enough to panic on the basis of a model run on a storm that hasn't formed yet, well... u are ill-advised. I don't see the harm in responsible people discussing responsibly, which a lot of us certainly can handle. The others.... well, I wish them the best on their journey...
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Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS run...
LOL, it just eats a tropical storm.
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Quoting angiest:


When the tropics start revving up "next week?"

I am going to get organized, 'next week'.
Funny how 'next week' is always a week away....
heheheh
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..finally we will rest a little bit...


312. reedzone 5:04 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Out till tonight, not staying home on my day off lol... Have fun, be good and I do expect either 95L or a yellow circle for the TWO when I get back. IKE, save me some crow will ya, just in case I am wrong?


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Quoting Enigma713:

are you sure it creates a ULL? I would think that it creates a more stacked low-pressure system.


It may create a cold core funnel.
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386. MTWX
Quoting IKE:


Then it's GW arguments. That's almost as bad as this. Maybe worse sometimes.

Yeah, I dont care for those much either... I do like the info regarding the Heat wave in Moscow and the extra tropical storm (which are the theme of todays blog) yet noone is talking about them just because it is hurricane season.
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385. IKE
12Z NOGAPS run...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
i just wish they would throw the quote button in the garbage can
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Homeless....


Hey Tex. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC... Trough/ULL off of the east coast.


Should reflect it out to sea. Could be a very similar path to Hurricane Bill of last year.
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Everywhere there are happy content people there are critics who come out of the woodwork.
I'm buying the out to sea senario (if the system develops).
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Quoting RipplinH2O:
You couldn't make this stuff it if you tried...and it's happening here, now...LOL!!!


and you were there

or were you? *raises eyebrow*
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


SmileyCentral.com


Hi Homeless....
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You couldn't make this stuff it if you tried...and it's happening here, now...LOL!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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