The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Oh I was talking about the storm/CV season. That usually calms the chaos somewhat. Sometimes. :)

I hope it does work, or were in some deep trouble! ;)
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
IF THE STORM MOVE FAST ITS A FISH STORM BUT IF ITS SLOW DOWN A LOT ITS WILL HIT THE USA.
NOW That's being decisive!!!
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474. JRRP

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Quoting Neapolitan:


I think the correct term is oblate spheroid...but yes, you're right. :-)

Lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do you mean the blog chaos is beginning, or is it the storm?


Oh I was talking about the storm/CV season. That usually calms the chaos somewhat. Sometimes. :)
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I knew a Model once with great re-curves.
Left a trail of destruction and woe behind...
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I know this has been posted 1000 times before, but still....




[doing the Snoopy dance] We've got a circle, we've got a circle....

Does this mean I am a horrible terrible wishing-death-and-destruction-upon-thousands person?

Of course not.... just REALLY glad to see the "model" debate is now moot.... lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts Valid August 24, 2010 -- 18:00 GMT. PSML (MB).



NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts Valid August 24, 2010 -- 18:00 GMT. WIND (KT).



Now, this is pretty impressive. Check out the wave heights:


A huge storm producing huge waves in a huge ocean. Not good.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
RIGHT NOW ITS A FISH STORM..


no right now it is a possible invest near the CV Islands that has not yet developed

jason meet reality
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464. xcool
GO new orleans saints
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Are you Dennis Miller?


Nah, he's far too Right for me--though I did write a few bits for him back in the late 90s, now that you mention it...
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD THAT IS NOT GOOD FOR THE USA.

Dude!!! Pick a leg to stand on and try to do it for more than 15 minutes...you are getting more flips and flops in than the sale rack at Walm#$t!!!
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
I've got a great idea. Everybody go the whole day without looking at any model. Simply observe, analyze and discuss "current" conditions only.


Fat Chance!
That's like lifting heavy stones one by one to a new location when you've got a perfectly good wheelbarrow sitting right there.

Balance is good; using the models as ONE of the forecasting tools at their disposal is how NHC continues to stay on top of the game...

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Rather impressive vort max embedded in PGI31L's axis:



ASCAT also found a broad area of low pressure:

Hmmm... looks like something might be getting started... on schedule?

Quoting Hurricanes101:


Actually it has had a few runs where it hit the SE US coastline

but yea most of the runs have shown a recurve; either way we have to see how the system develops and where it develops before we can determine which solution is right
But RECURVING doesn't mean it doesn't hit anything. If u examine the storm track of 90% of TCs that originate in an African Twave [even ones that form in the EPac] u will notice that sooner or later that track curves back to the east. It doesn't matter WHERE the recurve takes place, but it does. That's because the poleward motion of the storm takes it AROUND the nearest high pressure, and when it gets to the mid-latitudes the steering pattern is consistently to the east [due to the westerlies there].

So an east coast hit doesn't mean we don't get a recurve.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Look at the amplification of the trough shown on the 12z GFS, I mean how often do you see that in August, especially in a negative phase of the NAO? Those type of troughs you see in February...not August. Looks like the GFS still overdoes the amplification of troughs.


That's the one thing for me that's been bothering me about the early recurve scene. We've had numerous instances over the last five years when a trough expected to turn a storm north was forecasted to be stronger than it turned out to be. I was kinda hoping that was one thing the modifications to the GFS had addressed....


Quoting KanKunKid:


It's funny you should mention that, when I have the overhead fan on, it creates an upper level low and I just can't develop anything new and the stuff I was working on, just fizzles.
U two are going to be in SO much trouble when there's actually a big storm and you run out of joke material... u will have hundreds of bloggers hunting u down and insisting, "Next joke!!! Next joke!!! Whaddayamean u don't have any fresh material!!!!" LOL

Quoting angiest:


Exactly!
Or as they say elsewhere, "Snap!" I read ur earlier post after I posted this than thought, "That's exactly what I was saying, only MUCH clearer.... lol"

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NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts Valid August 24, 2010 -- 18:00 GMT. PSML (MB).



NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts Valid August 24, 2010 -- 18:00 GMT. WIND (KT).



Now, this is pretty impressive. Check out the wave heights:

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This season is going to be summed up like this. Dry air,Hot sea surface temps, ULL, wind shear, recurvature. All great factors to keep the US safe from storms except hot temps. But sea surface temps dont make a storm.. The atmosphere does.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Looks more like a squashed oval to me...But whatever, it doesn't really matter.


I think the correct term is oblate spheroid...but yes, you're right. :-)
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


2

Thanks Shen.
As I can see from that, we are Undecided, Unaware and Unruffled.
The models say 1, 2 and 3. And the TWO says 2.
As it should be. I go with the Averages every time I have options as well.
Keep up the good work.
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450. JRRP
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yep. Looks like it's beginning.

Do you mean the blog chaos is beginning, or is it the storm?
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Quoting angiest:


Which models will be discussed?


Kate Moss, Cindy Crawford maybe
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nice
but very steamy afterwards
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Impressive. They have it moving westward and becoming a 1000mb system.


Yep. Looks like it's beginning.
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Quoting angiest:


I thought it was fish food?


he changes his opinion like he changes he screennames
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Impressive. They have it moving westward and becoming a 1000mb system.

:0
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD THAT IS NOT GOOD FOR THE USA.


I thought it was fish food?
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Quoting Huracaneer:
We have a yellow circle!

Looks more like a squashed oval to me...But whatever, it doesn't really matter.
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438. xcool
now 95L 100%
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Quoting Vero1:
Impressive. They have it moving westward and becoming a 1000mb system.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


C'mon, multi-flavored ice cream, that was pure dead-pan.


Multi-flavored ice cream? That's funny coming from a guy named after a song by Céline Dion. (Or is it instead the Congolese soccer player?) ;-)
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Quoting SFlKatCane5:

lol
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432. Vero1
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Be sure to appoint a designated blogger.


Which models will be discussed?
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Quoting pottery:
Someone should post the 2:00pm TWO...


2
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We have a yellow circle!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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