The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE NOW I MADE IT.


I couldn't get the sound to work or I went deaf last night when I got a major wedgie. Nice slide show though.
Member Since: April 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 5001
Quoting weatherman566:
Storm, or anyone at that:

The NWS from Atlanta wrote this in their discussion. What is your thoughts on this?

ECMWF/GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY BEYOND THIS POINT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PUSHES MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LEAVE A LINGERING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...SOMETHING I AM ALWAYS LEARY
OF AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MIGHT EVEN YET BE THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
NO 5 ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS TAKES THIS SFC LOW WEST INTO THE UPPER TX
COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT BACK NORTH INTO GA LATE NEXT WEEK.


Nearly all the models develop a very (unusually) persistent surface trough over the northern GOMEX next week...if not cyclogenic tropically, then a very convective week indeed for the deep south and gulf coast east of Galveston coming up...
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2274. breald
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE NOW I MADE IT.



LOL!!
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2272. Jax82
Based on my Saturday plans (I'm going deep sea FISHING tomorrow and to the Jags vs DOLPHINS pre season opener) and the analysis of those plans I think its a sign this will be a Fish storm. ;)
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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ITS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ON THE EAST COAST.
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Quoting germemiguel:
CIMSS shows that there is a lot of dry air over central Atlantic.

I'm thinking that the development of 95L will be slow.

then if the system remains weak, it will go west and perhaps it will be too south to feel the weakening of the ridge between 45W and 55W...

Perhaps A Dean(2007) track coming....

I'm french excuse my english lollll


Your English is great, I wish could write French as well as you write English.
Member Since: April 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 5001
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE NOW I MADE IT.


Best video ever. ;P
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
45 west will be the key for 95l if it makes it that far..
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Quoting StormW:


If it doesn't giddy up and go...forward motion wise...it has less chance at being a fish, though I'm not too hooked at the moment at the higher percentages of a fish..


Fish...hooked...pun intended?? ;-)
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TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE NOW I MADE IT.
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i agree ike the dry air is starting to disrupt 95l and convection is decreasing...this may be only temporary...i can say this x5 will not redevelop off the carolina coast its toast...
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2256. Bayside
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Go back and read the blog. He has many posts on what he thinks might happen.


Yeah, go back and read like 2500 posts... sheesh the nerve. As far as I've ever seen StormW doesn't have a problem resharing his opinion on such matters, so why do you pipe in with your comment? If StromW wants doesn't feel like answering a question like that, why don't you let him speak for himself?
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2255. Vero1
Hurricane Frances (08/25 - 09/10)

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Slow development of 95L would be the norm for a potent Cape Verde storm.

Most don't tend to ramp up until they're at least halfway across the Atlantic.

Fred last year was much the aberration.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



dont get him started
I MADE A VIDEO NOW ABOUT THE TROPICALS.
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CIMSS shows that there is a lot of dry air over central Atlantic.

I'm thinking that the development of 95L will be slow.

then if the system remains weak, it will go west and perhaps it will be too south to feel the weakening of the ridge between 45W and 55W...

Perhaps A Dean(2007) track coming....

I'm french excuse my english lollll
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. A TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THE BROAD LOW THROUGH NEW ORLEANS AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE MIDSECTION OF THE GULF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...BEING
STEERED BY THE HIGH`S CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.

See that's where we get into trouble here. Hope that's the last thing that rotates around that high this season.

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2247. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Local met thinks the cv storm will be riding the edge of the atl high which will give it its northward curve just before it reaches the islands what is the forcast for this high any one witha graphic for it?
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2244. shawn26
Thank you for the info. I have been on this blog for about 3 years just learning. I am sort of the weather guru here at my work, but that is not saying much. Everybody at my work always comes to me for information on storms so we can prepare here at work if something does come this way. I am in Ft. Myers, and ever since Charlie hit, everyone here is a lot more cautious now. I appreciate everything you have tought me on here over the years.
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2242. IKE
You can see the spin on the central Atlantic visible loop...looks near 11.5N and about 28W....maybe dry air to it's north with a lack of convection....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:


Exactly, which I believe in turn had an effect on the monsoonal moisture from India that aids in our CV stuff. The Indian monsoon has a Quasi-Bi-weekly Oscillation, which I feel the phase to where the monsoon is suppressed, may have been enhanced further by that dip in the jetstream (eastern side of it), which would have helped to force winds toward an easterly direction, keeping the moisture over the areas that were affected.

INDIAN MONSOON


Makes some sense.

The beauty of weather, everything is so inter-related.
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2238. shawn26
StormW, what is your gut feeling on the CV storm?
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Quoting StormW:


Felix was a beast too.


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You mean the one by Scotland?



Supposedly giving off heavy rain, 70mph gusts, thunderstorms and an isolated tornado or two.

Had a downpour earlier, but that's it so far. Been the warmest day for ages, though (up to 74).
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2233. Patrap
O Lordy...

here it comes..

a Dean reference.

Wait for it, Wait for it,,,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Holy vorticity batman!
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Quoting weatherman566:


The NWS from Atlanta wrote this in their discussion. What is your thoughts on this?

ECMWF/GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY BEYOND THIS POINT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PUSHES MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LEAVE A LINGERING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...SOMETHING I AM ALWAYS LEARY
OF AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MIGHT EVEN YET BE THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
NO 5 ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS TAKES THIS SFC LOW WEST INTO THE UPPER TX
COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT BACK NORTH INTO GA LATE NEXT WEEK.

xTD5 reminds me of a shark - circling for the kill!
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Thanks for the graph, Storm.

--

The large scale effect was largely caused by blocking and the relation to the jetstream positioning.

Doesn't the NAO have some impact on that...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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