The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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BBL, for some reason I have the urge to make some Joe........in my Bunn of course.....
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Quoting nw5b:
Oh Man...Coffee with no power. That's one of the first things I do for my emergency preparedness!

At the grocery store you can get conical plastic filter holders for the paper filters for your drip coffee maker. The plastic holders sometimes come with their own caraffe or fit over a coffee cup. Just put the filter in the holder and fill with coffee just like you would a regular coffee maker. Boil some water with whatever means you can and manually pour it into the filled filter holder.

I think it makes better coffee than the electric drip makers. Most of them don't get the water hot enough for proper brewing.


When Katrina came..we plugged my drip maker into the generator...talk about bogging the generator down. I will make it the old fashioned way if we get a storm like that again.
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yea looks like the 12Z forecasts do not support an early recurve
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7831


Vertical Shear (kt)
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Not liking the setup of the high on Monday [per OPC]. This is looking less like early recurve, especially with the suggestion that the high centre is expected to shift Wward. Those two little "bobbles" in the 1016 isobar between 50-60W and E of 40W seem to represent our potential storm and the Twave in front of it....

Looking forward with alacrity to some RADICAL modifications in this by Saturday :o)
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Quoting Enigma713:

Actually, you don't need a percolator.... just a pot, strainer, and coffee filter.


Look, I'm at least trying to keep it somewhat civilized.......LOL
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570. nw5b
Oh Man...Coffee with no power. That's one of the first things I do for my emergency preparedness!

At the grocery store you can get conical plastic filter holders for the paper filters for your drip coffee maker. The plastic holders sometimes come with their own caraffe or fit over a coffee cup. Just put the filter in the holder and fill with coffee just like you would a regular coffee maker. Boil some water with whatever means you can and manually pour it into the filled filter holder.

I think it makes better coffee than the electric drip makers. Most of them don't get the water hot enough for proper brewing.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Of course, there's always good old Folgers coffee crystals........yuk


Lol. My Mom drinks instant. No one else will.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

COORDINATED THE LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TPC DURING THE MIDDAY CALL...AS SUCH CIRCULATIONS
BREAKING OFF FRONTAL ZONES DO BECOME TROPICAL FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOW FAR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE SYNOPTIC LOW ENDS UP
FORMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE THE POWER OF THE HIGHLY
RESOLVED ECENS MEAN MEMBERS TO BACK UP THE FINAL MANUAL DEPICTION.





Deja vu all over again.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting homelesswanderer:


We just use an old coffee pot and boil the water and pour it thru.


Of course, there's always good old Folgers coffee crystals........yuk
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So this monsoonal trough extending out of Africa where we normally see waves emerging, is this some sort of enhanced wave trigger ?
I don't think I have ever seen this before. Does this happen every summer ?
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Quoting sailingallover:

Another TUTT/ULL to save us from the evil Tropical waves that want to develop


Probably won't have any affect whatsoever on the system south of the Cape Verde islands.

repost of what StormW posted, you can see the very large anti-cyclone creating outflow. This is the first time I've seen shear maps show a tropical cyclone in the future.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Coffee. And ice to chill it with... Hmmm... anybody with a clue how to brew coffee on a gas grill or over a sterno?

If power does go out...


We just use an old coffee pot and boil the water and pour it thru.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting StormSurgeon:


You need one of the old style percolators. Amazingly, I actually have one.

Actually, you don't need a percolator.... just a pot, strainer, and coffee filter.
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Hmm. A bit of a reversal from earlier:

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Storm....just curious...the wave in the Carribean seems to have held on the past couple of days without a whole lot of attention, due to the CV wave ( I guess)...do you have any opinion (forecast for this AOI)? I haven't read your synopsis today, so if you have answered already I apologize in advance!!

Thanks!!
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Big rain being throwed my way.
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Quoting sailingallover:

Another TUTT/ULL to save us from the evil Tropical waves that want to develop


Works for me. Send 'em to the fish.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

COORDINATED THE LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TPC DURING THE MIDDAY CALL...AS SUCH CIRCULATIONS
BREAKING OFF FRONTAL ZONES DO BECOME TROPICAL FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOW FAR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE SYNOPTIC LOW ENDS UP
FORMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE THE POWER OF THE HIGHLY
RESOLVED ECENS MEAN MEMBERS TO BACK UP THE FINAL MANUAL DEPICTION.



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556. unf97
Quoting mrpuertorico:


its a tutt low


Quoting mrpuertorico:


its a tutt low


The interesting thing about this TUTT feature north of the Virgin islands is that as it continues to move west is that it appears to be the last one at least for awhile. Looking at the rest of the Atlantic Basin eastward, it appears that we don't have anymore ULL to create shear to systems developing from the African coast. Conditions look to be quite conducive for CV systems to really get cranking in the near future.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Coffee. And ice to chill it with... Hmmm... anybody with a clue how to brew coffee on a gas grill or over a sterno?

If power does go out...


You need one of the old style percolators. Amazingly, I actually have one.
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554. xcool


MAJOR IMPACT SEASON STILL THE MAINSTAY OF MY HURRICANE FORECAST

While the hurricane season so far has been less active than normal, I expect a frenzy of activity the rest of the way. The overall numbers, which the media is addicted to, are still expected to be much higher than normal, but they are or not, the pattern close to the U.S. coast remains ripe for a high impact year, and I have little change in that idea, which I will review below. Given what is going on worldwide, the idea that the Atlantic Basin will be the main basin for well above-normal activity continues to be the mainstay of the forecast, and with it a much higher-than-normal impact year on the U.S. coast, which while centered over the Southeastern states, includes a higher-than-normal risk west to Texas and north to New England.

The last forecast I gave you called for 18-21 storms, with eight of them impacting the U.S., five or six as hurricanes and two as major hurricanes. Using the impact scale that runs from 1-7, where 1 is the impact from a tropical depression, 2 from a tropical storm, 3-7 from Category 1-5 hurricanes, the forecast if one wishes to "total" the scale would add up to 28-30 total impact points. This is close to the total impact points of 2008. The forecast for this aspect remains unchanged.

So far, if we want to score what has happened as far as impact: Alex gave moderate tropical storm conditions to southern Texas (2.5 points), Bonnie minimal tropical storm conditions to Florida (2 points) and tropical depression 2 (1.5 points) on the southern Texas coast. While T.D. 5 caused tropical storm warnings, this did not impact anyone in a way I would score, and Colin remained far out at sea. The point total thus far stands at 6, or roughly 20% of the forecast total for the U.S. coast. It is interesting to note that four of the five systems have traversed in some way the Gulf of Mexico, and in past years that type of situation, several early systems in the Gulf, has been a harbinger of an active season.

Before continuing, a theory as to why this year has been so feeble. If tropical cyclones are nature's way of taking heat out of the tropics and redistributing it in the temperate regions, then if there is no need for that (too cool in the tropics or too warm farther north), then there is no reason for them. A look at the water temps may give us a clue.

The warmth in the north Pacific and coolness from the La Nina certainly shuts that area down, though there should be an uptick in the southwest Pacific, though not to above normal even there. The bulk of the rest of the Pacific Basin is probably less than 50% normal the rest of the way. The Atlantic, though warm in the tropical breeding grounds, is warm farther north. This has led to lower-than-normal pressures not only in the tropics but over much of North America, which "distorts" the upward motion pattern and causes it not to focus in the tropics.

This pet theory of mine was actually something I used to counter Al Gore's argument that global warming would cause MORE hurricanes... given the distribution of land and the mass considerations of the Northern Hemisphere, a warming of the major land masses may lead to the opposite of what he was saying (just so you know where this theory came from). Stay with me here for why the season should come to life.

The natural cooling process of the late summer and fall, even if we maintain the current distorted pattern should mean the Atlantic comes to life, since pressure rises will occur anyway over the continent faster than they do over the ocean. Since the Pacific Basin is so convoluted, it has to be the Atlantic where the imbalance of the warm tropical oceans tries to resolve itself. I have model support in the European still calling for 13 storms from Sept. 1 on. Assuming we see one or two more storms named in August (3 if we're lucky, given the increase in activity the models are seeing) there is no need to "throw in the towel" on this season yet. Far from it. If we look at the last year that the globe cooked this way, 1998, all impact storms occurred after Aug. 20 (six of them). Given where we are now, with already two names and a depression, we are in good company. The upper pattern, as shown in recent posts on the everyday site, is heading toward the pattern of 2005, right in the heart of the season. So overall, I have no changes on the ideas I gave you earlier on total impact on the U.S. coast, and the rally that can occur with naming going into November this year would take care of the total also.

So the most important of the numbers, landfall impact, remains essentially unchanged. I wish to continue to emphasize my belief that the total numbers are a red herring, and the focus of what I try to do has to do with the storms that cause at least tropical storm conditions in U.S. coastal waters, landfall or not. Given the current run of the models, two weeks from now, a lot may have already happened to change some perceptions of the season. With or without that, the parameters... the very warm waters in the tropical breeding ground, lowering amounts of shear, the NATURAL change of actual temperatures and pressures as we come out of the heart of the summer season, which by the way was forecast to be warmer and wetter from this forecaster, not warm and dry, which would help "focus" upward motion in the breeding grounds... (remember the analogs to 1995 and 2005 in the preseason idea) and modeling that still says that the season Sept. 1 on has twice the normal ACE in the Atlantic, still give me confidence that the hurricane season will come to life and perhaps in a frenzied manner.

Please watch the Long Ranger this morning for some visuals... which may or may not be abysmal... to go with this.

Ciao for now

BY JOE B ..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting pensacolastorm:
What is the swirl NE of the Virgin Islands? ULL? Sure looks low level.

Another TUTT/ULL to save us from the evil Tropical waves that want to develop
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Looks like we'll see 95L soon.


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551. xcool
CybrTeddy .GOM TOO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting swlagirl:

slap ya momma seasoning
Coffee. And ice to chill it with... Hmmm... anybody with a clue how to brew coffee on a gas grill or over a sterno?

If power does go out...
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548. nw5b
Quoting bobwxnrd:
Patrap

What did you mean by, "Checking the Local CONUS".


Check the weather in the local CONtinental United States.
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And so the dance begins. This should be an agonizing week. LOL.
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Quoting mojofearless:
Hola y'all. Woohoo! FINALLY - two yellow circles. 20% chance of development on the CV wave, and 90% chance of screeching chaos here at the WU blog.
Just for fun, since we're all playing the waiting game - what's the ONE THING you wouldn't go through a hurricane without? Not including water - that's too obvious.
The weirder the better.
I'll start the ball rolling with... green tea and cucumber scented baby wipes.


How bout a steamer trunk full of video/dvds of every Dallas Cowboy game aired since 1989. It's made three trips with us since 2005. I love my hubby but the man has a sickness. Lol.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF running.. 144 hours out has a TS/ Hurricane and a TD.


Looks like what GFS showed a couple of days ago.
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Storm, I don't think anybody is [seriously] debating IF something will form; it's been more how intense and track today.

BTW, someone mentioned that ULL [in its usual place] NE of PR... isn't that forecast to retreat Wward or fade over the next 2-3 days?
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ECMWF running.. 144 hours out has a TS/ Hurricane and a TD.
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Quoting StormW:
Questions as to development?



Guess we don't have to worry about anything developing in Montana...LOL
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Quoting mojofearless:
Hola y'all. Woohoo! FINALLY - two yellow circles. 20% chance of development on the CV wave, and 90% chance of screeching chaos here at the WU blog.
Just for fun, since we're all playing the waiting game - what's the ONE THING you wouldn't go through a hurricane without? Not including water - that's too obvious.
The weirder the better.
I'll start the ball rolling with... green tea and cucumber scented baby wipes.

slap ya momma seasoning
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Quoting pensacolastorm:
What is the swirl NE of the Virgin Islands? ULL? Sure looks low level.


its a tutt low
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537. xcool


2 STORMS & 1 LOWER IN GOM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StormW:
Questions as to development?



Oh my, lots of shear. Good thing there's an Anticyclone. I'llbe back in about an hour or so...
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Another looks to be building up to set out a few days behind PGI33L:

Click image for full-size
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Quoting StormW:
Questions as to development?



Is that a nice looking anticyclone with the wave StormW?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7831
530. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I don't know what an OT pic is.
Off Topic. Remember the fish pictures? pple got banned like crazy for them one season... 08? 07?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Thing is, in Ike and... Jeanne, I think? the MODELS were calling for the change; the HUMANS didn't believe it because it was counterintuitive to expectations / experience. This doesn't make ur point less valid, though. Perhaps such storms have to come along in order to remind forecasters that the model isn't automatically right - or wrong - but simply an indicator of potential.

Resistance is futile...
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527. unf97
Quoting pensacolastorm:
What is the swirl NE of the Virgin Islands? ULL? Sure looks low level.


It is an Upper Level Low
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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