The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 627 - 577

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

627. nw5b
Quoting MSInland05:


When Katrina came..we plugged my drip maker into the generator...talk about bogging the generator down. I will make it the old fashioned way if we get a storm like that again.


Check on the back of your coffee maker. It might surprise you. Some of those "little drip coffee makers" are 1400 Watts!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Agreed! That recurvature so far east is because of the GFS overdoing the amplification of troughs...what's new? Especially being in a negative NAO.


You have data on overdoing the amplification of troughs? Link?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
624. IKE
Here's the 12Z ECMWF 192 hour frame...




216 hour frame...




240 hour frame...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sailingallover:

Why? Storms won't affect something 5000' down.
They have shut to well off before with no leaks. I'm not even sure anymore what the status is now that the media is not screaming about it. Are they collecting or is it shut off right now?


It's been capped since 7-18; the static kill worked but they want to do a further bottom kill to ensure it's stopped. At this point, no oil is leaking from the seabed, though I hear a great deal just washed up at Orange Beach Al from the original leak
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I kind of wish the wave train will get going so we have something real to talk about. Instead of the if it forms talk we have now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Made it to show everyone where the pouches are...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
An operation to permanently seal the ruptured oil well in the Gulf of Mexico has been delayed until early September, US officials say.

They better hope nothing gets spinning in the Gulf before then.

Why? Storms won't affect something 5000' down.
They have shut to well off before with no leaks. I'm not even sure anymore what the status is now that the media is not screaming about it. Are they collecting or is it shut off right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


24 hr

The Hurricane Tropical Winds map shows high level (about 40,000 feet) wind speed and direction over the Atlantic Ocean.



48 hr



72 hr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


How bout a steamer trunk full of video/dvds of every Dallas Cowboy game aired since 1989. It's made three trips with us since 2005. I love my hubby but the man has a sickness. Lol.


Now that's pretty funny!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Impressive area 0f 850mb vort with PGI31L:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wish they would declare it an invest soon so we could get some model runs on this and have a general idea of where this may go.

I dont really like the GFS track so far. Doesn't add up.


Exactly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Only way I see the 12z GFS track happening is if the CV wave REALLY begins to ramp up (like, TD tomorrow ramp up)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wish they would declare it an invest soon so we could get some model runs on this and have a general idea of where this may go.

I dont really like the GFS track so far. Doesn't add up.
Agreed! That recurvature so far east is because of the GFS overdoing the amplification of troughs...what's new? Especially being in a negative NAO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest GFS looks like Ireland and England better develop a hurricane plan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wish they would declare it an invest soon so we could get some model runs on this and have a general idea of where this may go.

I dont really like the GFS track so far. Doesn't add up.


the ridge that is set up, along with what the fact the ridge is forecasted to shift westward; does not support the track the GFS shows
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Quoting StormW:


That's not the funny part.


I wish they would declare it an invest soon so we could get some model runs on this and have a general idea of where this may go.

I dont really like the GFS track so far. Doesn't add up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


That's not the funny part.
The recurveature so far east is what's funny, the intensity scheme shown on the GFS looks on par to me, if not stronger.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this is for our two aoi that are highlighted on the TWO

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:
If this is from today's run, then the position of the storm looks further west than GFS showed a couple of hours ago:



now that is right
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
606. IKE
Quoting angiest:
If this is from today's run, then the position of the storm looks further west than GFS showed a couple of hours ago:



No...that's from 2 days ago....here it is...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting unf97:




The interesting thing about this TUTT feature north of the Virgin islands is that as it continues to move west is that it appears to be the last one at least for awhile. Looking at the rest of the Atlantic Basin eastward, it appears that we don't have anymore ULL to create shear to systems developing from the African coast. Conditions look to be quite conducive for CV systems to really get cranking in the near future.


Also the tutt is helping push the SAL out faster from the area and if you look east the SAL really diminishes for the antilles
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow its about time we see that yellow on our CV AOI do we have any invest tagged yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Re: 585... not as happy-making as the earlier run, is it? That setup allows for an E coast hit, at least potentially. This is what I was talking about earlier RE: all the model runs consistently placing this storm at 50W before any hint of recurvature. Doesn't mean we WILL see a landfall, just implies increased potential for one.

I'm also starting to think that if this system ends up being big enough, NE Car will get effects, landfall or no landfall.

But we shall see.

I'm out for a while. Will check in later to see what's happening with our modest gestating system...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:


Not liking the setup of the high on Monday [per OPC]. This is looking less like early recurve, especially with the suggestion that the high centre is expected to shift Wward. Those two little "bobbles" in the 1016 isobar between 50-60W and E of 40W seem to represent our potential storm and the Twave in front of it....

Looking forward with alacrity to some RADICAL modifications in this by Saturday :o)


That is a disturbing graphic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z GFS




Wow...a major in the making, huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z GFS




I definitely do not see that happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


?????????????????????????????????


lol i know
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My favorite, local met, Dr. Bill Williams mentioned the other day that things will ramp up and stay that way longer...perhaps through October.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that looks to be the run from the 17th


I like the way Allan Huffman does the GFS updates: he removes the images. For Euro, though, he just overwrites them so it is hard to tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z GFS


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Coffee. And ice to chill it with... Hmmm... anybody with a clue how to brew coffee on a gas grill or over a sterno?

If power does go out...


Get yourself a french press, that way all you have to do is boil water. Plus you do not end up with a mouthfull of grounds from the old percolators. Had to deal with a percolator after Ike, we called it cowboy coffee, nice n' gritty.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:
If this is from today's run, then the position of the storm looks further west than GFS showed a couple of hours ago:



that looks to be the run from the 17th
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
587. beell
Quoting msphar:
So this monsoonal trough extending out of Africa where we normally see waves emerging, is this some sort of enhanced wave trigger ?
I don't think I have ever seen this before. Does this happen every summer ?


Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just to chime in, we have already had a pattern of these lows drifting into the Gulf---that is something that may continue. Folks here who have been through decades of hurricane seasons are wary of, even more than longrange diagnostic model runs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this is from today's run, then the position of the storm looks further west than GFS showed a couple of hours ago:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry. DP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Look, I'm at least trying to keep it somewhat civilized.......LOL

Let me get this straight... you are trying to keep things civilized on this blog? In hurricane season?

Seriously?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:


You need one of the old style percolators. Amazingly, I actually have one.
You can still find them at Coleman stores or any army/navy. On-line too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
An operation to permanently seal the ruptured oil well in the Gulf of Mexico has been delayed until early September, US officials say.

They better hope nothing gets spinning in the Gulf before then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the coffee tips, everyone. I think I have everything I need, down to a very small pot [for eggpoaching] that will boil relatively quickly over low heat...

NOW I am good.... lol Though I'd rather not find out from personal experience how well this works....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
578. Bonz
I know. I looked and went "Oh boy, not too much shear." (in the first image)

Quoting StormW:


?????????????????????????????????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BBL, for some reason I have the urge to make some Joe........in my Bunn of course.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 627 - 577

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
45 °F
Partly Cloudy