The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Floodman:


It's been capped since 7-18; the static kill worked but they want to do a further bottom kill to ensure it's stopped. At this point, no oil is leaking from the seabed, though I hear a great deal just washed up at Orange Beach Al from the original leak



Reference for the Orange Beach incident? TIA
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If the models are right it is going to become a large Storm. Easily 300miles in diameter
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Quoting IKE:


Looks like Accuweather has jumped on board with a NW movement.


Notice you didn't highlight "track is very uncertain" lol
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672. nw5b
Quoting mojofearless:

Someone on here already said French Press - I strongly second that motion, and actually have a French Press in my hurricane box. Now if only I could find a manual grinder for my whole beans...


REI and other places have little manual "camp grinders" fairly inexpensive. If you're going to grind for more than one cup I suggest looking online...but bigger grinders are pretty pricey.

Yes...I'm a coffee geek! I figured out how to do this once when an ice storm took my power out for 3 days!

See...weather related...
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Quoting Floodman:


It's been capped since 7-18; the static kill worked but they want to do a further bottom kill to ensure it's stopped. At this point, no oil is leaking from the seabed, though I hear a great deal just washed up at Orange Beach Al from the original leak


There's been a few splotches here and there on the Bama coast the past week but certainly not a great deal. I've been to Dauphin Island twice in the past two weeks and the coast was clear.....no pun intended. Open the waters for shrimping already, I'm dying to make some gumbo!
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Quoting WeekiWacheeWoman:

Have made a couple of posts, but this is my first question...
I do not understand much of weather, other than what I have learned here(and a little on another site), by lurking for three years. Does this mean if it were a 1000 mb storm you would look at the arrows on the steering maps for a 1000 mb storm to determine where it may go? I understand that this is hypothetical, of course.
That's pretty much it. Basically depending on the strength of the storm, the steering layer you would look at. I'll Wu-mail you when I get home that way you understand it better.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting KanKunKid:


Well I just realized after the last model run, that I really need to wait for the next model run. Probably will have to wait for the one after that too.


I agree, no way at this point to accept or discount the models.
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One thing is for sure. There is going to have to be some major activity in the months of September and October for all these insane forecasts to verify. These deep digging troughs are unheard of for this time of year. It's going to be hard for a CV storm to make it across the Atlantic with this pattern. The -NAO is going to shunt almost everything out to sea. If were going to have any US landfalls it's going to have to come from the Caribbean or homebrew imo
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Quoting btwntx08:
good afternoon all!!!


Hey Rob
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Hurricane Georges track?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2001
Quoting StormW:
Back in a short.


Bye Storm!
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659. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Accuweather

We are monitoring closely a large area of clouds, rain and thunderstorms mostly just south of the Cape Verde Islands. We don't see a lower level feature forming yet. However, satellite motion shows clouds associated with this system are turning counter clockwise suggesting at least some mid level rotation. Upper level winds,lower level winds and the overall atmosphere are favorable for further organization. We believe there is a good chance this feature will gradually become an organized tropical system within the next day or two and could become the next tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin this weekend. The movement of this system will be highly dependent on where a low level feature forms. Computer forecasts are suggesting formation will start to take place over the next 24-36 hours around 12 north, 30 west. The large high pressure area in the Atlantic has been slowly working eastward during the past couple of days and this trend should continue. This suggests this system will move westward for a few days then gradually turn more northwestward next week. The future path of this system remains highly uncertain until a low level feature forms.


Looks like Accuweather has jumped on board with a NW movement.
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Quoting mrpuertorico:


well first of all train is allready out of the station second of all watching if a storm will form is half the battle and third like storm said watch what you wish for


Don't get me wrong, I don't want anyone to get a storm. I just want something viable to track.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Impressive area 0f 850mb vort with PGI31L:



WOW TD like vort :/
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653. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Impressive. They have it moving westward and becoming a 1000mb system.Have made a couple of posts, but this is my first question...
I do not understand much of weather, other than what I have learned here(and a little on another site), by lurking for three years. Does this mean if it were a 1000 mb storm you would look at the arrows on the steering maps for a 1000 mb storm to determine where it may go? I understand that this is hypothetical, of course.
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650. xcool
''
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You have data on overdoing the amplification of troughs? Link?
Nope, no data, but I've seen the GFS over-amplify troughs since last year.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I believe, if this does in fact recurve, it will recurve after it has passed the Leeward Islands.
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I know the kind you are talking about, I used one for years, but over the years and children well it disappeared. I think now I will go on search for one.
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Quoting breald:
I kind of wish the wave train will get going so we have something real to talk about. Instead of the if it forms talk we have now.


well first of all train is allready out of the station second of all watching if a storm will form is half the battle and third like storm said watch what you wish for
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Accuweather

We are monitoring closely a large area of clouds, rain and thunderstorms mostly just south of the Cape Verde Islands. We don't see a lower level feature forming yet. However, satellite motion shows clouds associated with this system are turning counter clockwise suggesting at least some mid level rotation. Upper level winds,lower level winds and the overall atmosphere are favorable for further organization. We believe there is a good chance this feature will gradually become an organized tropical system within the next day or two and could become the next tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin this weekend. The movement of this system will be highly dependent on where a low level feature forms. Computer forecasts are suggesting formation will start to take place over the next 24-36 hours around 12 north, 30 west. The large high pressure area in the Atlantic has been slowly working eastward during the past couple of days and this trend should continue. This suggests this system will move westward for a few days then gradually turn more northwestward next week. The future path of this system remains highly uncertain until a low level feature forms.
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Quoting Baybuddy:
My favorite, local met, Dr. Bill Williams mentioned the other day that things will ramp up and stay that way longer...perhaps through October.


I love Dr. Bill. I took his 3 quarter meteorology series at S. Alabama back in 92.
those were some fun classes. He's heading up a full blown Meteorology degree program out at South now.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


how about years of the GFS overamplifying troughs, it is infamous for it


I see that posted here, but no one so far has been able to produce actual data.
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Quoting sailingallover:

Yes but then a Large Low develops off the coast from the cold front that just passed over the east coast putting a weakness in the ridge which creates a weakness and the higher pressures retreat East. If you trust the model enough to develop the storm why don't you trust the model to predict where it will go?


because they are much better at showing development in the short term (which is where we are now with this system), then they are at showing tracks in the long term
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Coffee. And ice to chill it with... Hmmm... anybody with a clue how to brew coffee on a gas grill or over a sterno?

If power does go out...

Someone on here already said French Press - I strongly second that motion, and actually have a French Press in my hurricane box. Now if only I could find a manual grinder for my whole beans...
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Quoting StormW:






Thats current data, what will it be in 7 days.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


the ridge that is set up, along with what the fact the ridge is forecasted to shift westward; does not support the track the GFS shows

Yes but then a Large Low develops off the coast from a cold front that just passed over the east coast putting a weakness in the ridge which creates a weakness and the higher pressures retreat East. If you trust the model enough to develop the storm why don't you trust the model to predict where it will go?
LOOK at the where the 1016MB line is in the surface forecast. At a minimum it will climb North to that line rapidly and the stronger it is the faster it will go north. It is not just the fact the ridge exists it is how strong it is as well.
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Quoting StormW:


I hear ya. I mean, if you look at that run you posted...the GFS has it initialized closer to like 17-18N...and it's closer to 10N as we speak.


Exactly. If the initialization is off the whole run is off.

At any rate, it should be an invest within the next 12-24 hours.
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Quoting nw5b:


Check on the back of your coffee maker. It might surprise you. Some of those "little drip coffee makers" are 1400 Watts!


LOL I know we did that. My BF said D*** that thing uses more power than the fridge. It was funny.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You have data on overdoing the amplification of troughs? Link?


how about years of the GFS overamplifying troughs, it is infamous for it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting MSInland05:


When Katrina came..we plugged my drip maker into the generator...talk about bogging the generator down. I will make it the old fashioned way if we get a storm like that again.


You're not kidding. That heating element in a drip maker eats up about 1200 watts. I'm serious, I have an old percolator that you put on the stove. I used to use on camp outs and such when I was young, and believe it or not, it makes a really great pot of coffee....if you don't over perc it.
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hmm he 24-72 hours forecast shows either a strong TD or TS is 72 hours



that not only has it moving west
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Coffee. And ice to chill it with... Hmmm... anybody with a clue how to brew coffee on a gas grill or over a sterno?

If power does go out...
Put your coffee in the coffee filter and tie it off with string. Then put in pot of water. You can adjust water or coffee amount for strength. Slowly simmer for a few minutes or longer if needed.:)
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627. nw5b
Quoting MSInland05:


When Katrina came..we plugged my drip maker into the generator...talk about bogging the generator down. I will make it the old fashioned way if we get a storm like that again.


Check on the back of your coffee maker. It might surprise you. Some of those "little drip coffee makers" are 1400 Watts!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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