The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like the MJO is with our CV disturbance.

lol. The MJO and the disturbance look like they just tied the knot......
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Quoting StormsAreCool:


What makes them "evil"? I hate it when people use negative terms to label weather systems. Why does a storm always have to be "bad weather?" I prefer them to blue skies, 100+ degree weather and high humidity.


You must not live on the coast or own a boat.
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Looks like the MJO is with our CV disturbance.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
He did his video yesterday and mentioned he suddenly had gotten sick.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:




One of the longest lived hurricanes ever...
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


hmmm, didn't know he was sick.


yeah...
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Quoting btwntx08:
634. Stormchaser2007 7:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


I hear ya. I mean, if you look at that run you posted...the GFS has it initialized closer to like 17-18N...and it's closer to 10N as we speak.


Exactly. If the initialization is off the whole run is off.

At any rate, it should be an invest within the next 12-24 hours.
We'll see. According to the blog experts we were supposed to have at least 2 tropical storms within 3 days...and that was 6 days ago......
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How about the AOI the NHC has a 20% of developing? Is this the wave you all are talking about re curving? I know there is a second wave being talked about that is supposed to go much further westward posing a threat to land?

What’s with the High going eastward? I thought the GFS and other models were indicating the high moving westward? Can someone please shed some light on this? Thanks
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Quoting MSInland05:
Missing Levi32 today..he must really be sick.


hmmm, didn't know he was sick.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting btwntx08:

told ya

That's why I agreed
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Good Afternoon all!!! Looks like things are starting to ramp up!
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Missing Levi32 today..he must really be sick.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:






yeah, except probably not as close to the Islands, and maybe even a little father East...Maybe.

Not even considering intensity right now.
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:


I think it'll be closer to a Hurricane Fabian track, look out Bermuda.


Instead,LOL, look at hurricane george 1998.
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I believe we will see something VERY nuch like Hurricane Faith in 1966




Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wish they would declare it an invest soon so we could get some model runs on this and have a general idea of where this may go.

I dont really like the GFS track so far. Doesn't add up.



Show me the beef. All this only exists in the minds of the computers so far. I'm not a down caster. I just want to see some real world weather........or a good analysis of why what the models are showing is not what's really happening.


We have a "general idea" of where this will go and that is northward way before the islands. A break in the ridge is a break in the ridge. How much of a change would you expect once we get an invest?

Having said that, can the overall pattern change days from now? Absolutely. But with the information we have now the general flow is into the North Atlantic.
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Quoting btwntx08:
looks where its postion near 11n and gfs start off the system at 16n i believe storm mention it earlier

Correct and yes he did
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705. IKE
scottsvb is a met, btwntx08. He's usually correct.
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What are the models doing with the Carribean storm?
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702. xcool
I Don't Care About NOO MODELS RightNow I Just need Invest 95L.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I believe we will see something VERY nuch like Hurricane Faith in 1966
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Quoting btwntx08:
scottsvb=no good


Why? I think he's right.
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Good afternoon,,,first off for those who dont know I did my very first blog this morning..I would really appreciate you all reading it and giving your opinions...and for those who did thank you very much!! Lastly I see we have the wave off africa got identified by the NHC,,I just wanted to ask although it seems this system will recurve, does that necassarily mean that future systems will??Or will a ridge eventually build off east coast and cause US threats?? thanks for any input!!
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Quoting sailingallover:

Buy yourself a solar panel, battery, charge controller and inverter....
Doesn't work so well when storms torn it down or thrown a 2x4 through it.
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I've been lurking the last few days and it just amazes me how people are so sure of the track before we even have a center to go off of. Its great we can pick up on the pattern anomalies but we can not say for sure where this will head based on model data that has shifted significantly the last few days. The bottom line is, until this has a center to fix on, the models aren't worth much. And thats my 2 cents.
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695. IKE
scottsvb....I notice both the GFS and ECMWF start turning it around 45W.
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Quoting weatherpending:



Reference for the Orange Beach incident? TIA


LINK to video
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Quoting Gearsts:
Hurricane Georges track?


That's Georges track, not a chance....
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Quoting Dakster:
Been out for a couple of weeks... What name are we up to?

Looks like the ramp up hasn't happened yet, but storm's last comment leads me to believe it is getting ready to start?


We're about to get Danielle.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Something's cooking...
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COAPS FSU 12z GFS MSLP loop
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting sailingallover:
If the models are right it is going to become a large Storm. Easily 300miles in diameter
Yes. I noticed that some of the models have been consistent with the size of this system.
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Quoting breald:


Don't get me wrong, I don't want anyone to get a storm. I just want something viable to track.


You know i have fun tracking even the tropical waves (especially when i am waiting for them to bring me some surf) even in winter i track the cold fronts (and the surf from those r truely epic)
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There will be a strong ridging in the eastern Atlantic and east of the Possible hurricane in 4-5 days.. this will cause a NW to N movement of the possible hurricane by the time it gets to 45W .. I dont expect (after 5 days from now) anything to get west of 55W from south of 20N. 90% chance of development,under 10% chance of making it the the U.S mainland

There is a slight chance a weak TW will get into the northern Lessar Antilles in 3-4 days and might have a chance to develop more after that as it pushes west towards Hispaniola and the Bahamas. 20% chance of development
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hey Stormchaser2007 just think is this CV storm was to make it in that we could be talking about a mega cat 5 lol
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Been out for a couple of weeks... What name are we up to?

Looks like the ramp up hasn't happened yet, but storm's last comment leads me to believe it is getting ready to start?
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Quoting sailingallover:

Another TUTT/ULL to save us from the evil Tropical waves that want to develop


What makes them "evil"? I hate it when people use negative terms to label weather systems. Why does a storm always have to be "bad weather?" I prefer them to blue skies, 100+ degree weather and high humidity.
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Quoting mojofearless:

Someone on here already said French Press - I strongly second that motion, and actually have a French Press in my hurricane box. Now if only I could find a manual grinder for my whole beans...


..and I have a butler I'll send out for espresso. You guys don't know how to "rough it".......LOL
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Quoting StormW:


OUCH!

I'm glad you posted the 500mb height anomalies.



No problem.

Those TCHP levels are some of the highest I've ever seen.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting nw5b:


REI and other places have little manual "camp grinders" fairly inexpensive. If you're going to grind for more than one cup I suggest looking online...but bigger grinders are pretty pricey.

Yes...I'm a coffee geek! I figured out how to do this once when an ice storm took my power out for 3 days!

See...weather related...

Buy yourself a solar panel, battery, charge controller and inverter....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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