The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Afternoon all!!! Looks like things are starting to ramp up!


Where? Certainly not in the tropics!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
766. pilotguy1 8:18 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

Ok how about that this area has strong vorticity at the 850mb level, it has very strong model support, conditions are favorable for development with forecasts showing a very strong anticyclone moving along with the system and it is the 3rd week of August.

Need anymore proof that this system isn't just going to go poof like all the others?


We shall see won't we.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I see that posted here, but no one so far has been able to produce actual data.
Mainly because it's anecdotal? Most pple who talk about that aspect of GFS performance do so from prior observation thereof...

Quoting KanKunKid:


Well I just realized after the last model run, that I really need to wait for the next model run. Probably will have to wait for the one after that too.
Right on that one. This amount of variability 7 days out is go be expected.

Quoting Gearsts:
Hurricane Georges track?
WAAAAY to early to tell...

Quoting sailingallover:

Buy yourself a solar panel, battery, charge controller and inverter....
Hmmm... only problem I see with solar panels is if ur roof gets gone...
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
No, it was said directly by at least one and inferred by many. By at least one "expert"(MH09). I'll go back and look through thousands of posts if anyone cares to wager substantially on it.


Does it really matter that much? I mean sometimes this blog becomes a scorecard lately best to just move on.
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I was wondering the same thing about the potential caribbean storm
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
I've seen a lot of storms, (like FAY 1966) that develop into TD almost as soon as they emerge off Africa. Some of their track START EAST of the CV Islands....
SO.... has it ever been necessary to post TS warnings or watches for the CV Islands?

Thanks.
I have seen tropical storm warnings for the Cape Verde Islands at least once, but I cannot remember what year it was...;0
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771. xcool


nice
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This is a strange season. I think a lot has to do with the quick flip from El Nino to La Nina. The entire globe has been quiet. It's August 19th in a supposed to be very active year and we don't even have a TD to talk about. IMO 2011 is going to be the real deal. The year after the switch and staying neutral is when the fireworks really start. You tend to have more land threats in those years as well.
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766. pilotguy1 8:18 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

Ok how about that this area has strong vorticity at the 850mb level, it has very strong model support, conditions are favorable for development with forecasts showing a very strong anticyclone moving along with the system and it is the 3rd week of August.

Need anymore proof that this system isn't just going to go poof like all the others?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
Impressive Major hurricane on the ECMWF.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Nothing anywhere close to a Georges track will come to fruition.
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 451
Quoting CybrTeddy:


There is a system south of the Cape Verde Islands






I'll grant you that but I think we have seen about a hundred of them this year that just go away. No rotation at all and just vaporize out there in the Atlantic. I wish someone would try to explain why this keeps happening. I know some of them have be destroyed by shear but the lack of development is way beyond my expertise.
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Quoting kap333:



Nothing is happening, no ramp up!! Relax


???
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
also means a potential trouble down the road as well
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
763. xcool
Long term (saturday night through next thursday)...models
continue to indicate an amplifying trough along the eastern
Seaboard which will push a cold front down into the local region
early next week. The front should stall over or just north of our
County Warning Area. The GFS develops a wave on or near the boundary in the
northeast Gulf Monday and drifts it westward over la on Tuesday.
This looks very similar to what we just saw with the remnant low
of dew point 5. Time height cross sections show deep layer moisture in
place at least through Monday and plenty of upper level energy.
This along with daytime heating and sea-breeze interaction with
the stalled boundary will result in above seasonal chances for
showers and thunderstorms though Monday. If the GFS solution
verifies and the surface low pulls further west on Tuesday we may
see convection trending back to more seasonal levels (40%) Tuesday
through the remainder of the extended period. Maximum temperatures
will generally be in the lower 90s and min temperatures will be in the
lower to middle 70s.

National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
No, it was said directly by at least one and inferred by many. By at least one "expert"(MH09). I'll go back and look through thousands of posts if anyone cares to wager substantially on it.


This has been the season of two weeks out. Not bashing anyone, it has gone slower than than most had thought. With all the hype of a very active or hyper active year, I guarantee you that very few people would have predicted that on Aug 19 we would still be waiting Danielle. And yes, there have been many experts (not necessarily on this blog) that predicted we would be tracking 2 or 3 CV storms by the weekend.
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I've seen a lot of storms, (like FAY 1966) that develop into TD almost as soon as they emerge off Africa. Some of their track START EAST of the CV Islands....
SO.... has it ever been necessary to post TS warnings or watches for the CV Islands?

Thanks.
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Quoting kap333:



Nothing is happening, no ramp up!! Relax

The NHC has cyclone formation probabilities up which does mean that something is going on.
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758. xcool
ha
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750. pilotguy1 8:11 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

because that is what normal level-headed people do who are trying to discuss all possibilities

Sure we may have our opinions, but if you want to be taken seriously you look at all factors and all forecasts; whether they agree with your opinion or not
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Afternoon all!!! Looks like things are starting to ramp up!



Nothing is happening, no ramp up!! Relax
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Quoting Tazmanian:



??????

its showing a negative nao on the ecmwf
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting pilotguy1:


Where? I don't see anything but model formation yet.


There is a system south of the Cape Verde Islands




Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Quoting StormsAreCool:


I do. I grew up in florida and now I'm on the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
Where in Florida did you live S.A.C.?
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752. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
202 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 2 PM THU...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHARP UPR TRF DEVELOPING
ALONG THE E CST SUN AND MON AS SRT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE
UPR RDG TO THE W. AT THE SFC THE MDLS SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TRF. MDLS DIFFER GREATLY SUN WITH GFS
QUICKER AND MUCH WETTER WITH WARM FRONT WHILE ECMWF SLOWER AND
DRIER. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE SO WILL CONT PREV FCST OF LOW CHC POPS
SUNDAY. WITH THE UPR TRF AND SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN FCST. SHLD DRY OUT A BIT MID WEEK
AS RDG ALOFT BUILDS E PUSHING UPR TRF OFFHSORE WITH FRONT MOVING S
OF AREA. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD MAINLY MID TO UPR 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPR 70S BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --


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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


No one ever said that.

Why do people confuse someone posting a model image of something as "saying" it will happen.


Why post it if you don't think, in your opinion, that it's going to happen? I think cows could jump over the moon, I just haven't see one do it yet.
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749. xcool
TropicalAnalystwx13 .you meaning in 24hrs
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Afternoon all!!! Looks like things are starting to ramp up!


Are you referring to the tropics or the blog?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Afternoon all!!! Looks like things are starting to ramp up!


Where? I don't see anything but model formation yet.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yup.


Should see at least a Tropical Depression by Saturday Night
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


No one ever said that.

Why do people confuse someone posting a model image of something as "saying" it will happen.


That's been the standard on the blog the last few days. Why do some folks have to be so impatient.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting pensacolastorm:


You must not live on the coast or own a boat.

Or had you entire life and livelihood destroyed by one.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Area south of the CV islands showing signs of organization. 850mb vorticity continues to increase and it should not be long before a surface circulation forms. Upper level winds appear conducive for some development. MIMIC-TPW and water vapor imagery show the the system is located in an MJO associated moisture maximum.


Yup.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
742. xcool
btwntx08 OKAY thanks
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Impressive.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting StormW:


Because the ridge in the U.S. that will pump the trof, doesn't indicate a strong trof.

It's not forecast to get pumped by a ridge. The trough currently over the central US is forecast to become a low in 3 days then forms a stalled front which turns into a trough off the coast and then develops into a low which bring it north. This along with the fact the AB High is WEAK is enough to turn it north just like Colin.

The Models are much better at forecasting Lows and Highs and ridges and trough than individual tropical storms and especially TS strength which is why SHIPS was developed.
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Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 WHO?

scottsvb
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting CosmicEvents:
No, it was said directly by at least one and inferred by many. By at least one "expert"(MH09). I'll go back and look through thousands of posts if anyone cares to wager substantially on it.


MiamiHurricanes09 says he is not an expert.
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Quoting pensacolastorm:


You must not live on the coast or own a boat.


I do. I grew up in florida and now I'm on the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


No one ever said that.

Why do people confuse someone posting a model image of something as "saying" it will happen.
No, it was said directly by at least one and inferred by many. By at least one "expert"(MH09). I'll go back and look through thousands of posts if anyone cares to wager substantially on it.
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Area south of the CV islands showing signs of organization. 850mb vorticity continues to increase and it should not be long before a surface circulation forms. Upper level winds appear conducive for some development. MIMIC-TPW and water vapor imagery show the the system is located in an MJO associated moisture maximum.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


No one ever said that.

Why do people confuse someone posting a model image of something as "saying" it will happen.


Exactly...I really do not know.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


No one ever said that.

Why do people confuse someone posting a model image of something as "saying" it will happen.


exactly
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
730. xcool
btwntx08 WHO?
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Quoting hydrus:
One of the longest lived hurricanes ever...


Also the largest in gale diameter
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
We'll see. According to the blog experts we were supposed to have at least 2 tropical storms within 3 days...and that was 6 days ago......


No one ever said that.

Why do people confuse someone posting a model image of something as "saying" it will happen.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like the MJO is with our CV disturbance.

lol. The MJO and the disturbance look like they just tied the knot......
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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