The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BahaHurican:
I surely do hope it never gets bad enough for me to be in a pinch.... lol

Of course, if the strike is bad enough, I guess nobody's going to be worried about drip or instant, anyway....


Well Baha, that's why I own a generator. Can't live on the Gulf Coast without one.
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Got it, thanks ya!
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Quoting StormW:


We have a winner! That was my point, where is the monster ridge to the west of that trof, pumping it to make it so strong?


Lol...Do I get a chicken dinner?
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924. xcool
[
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StormW:


You have a zonal flow (more of a west to east flow, pretty flat).



The thing with that graph is it is the average from 168-240 hours, but where is the storm in relation to that time frame? I don't disagree that the GFS may be wrong, but also the ECMWF may be wrong. My issue from the start was the blanket statement that the GFS overdoes troughs. Maybe it does but I would like to see data that shows it.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


...bite your tongue..but it will work in a pinch.
I surely do hope it never gets bad enough for me to be in a pinch.... lol

Of course, if the strike is bad enough, I guess nobody's going to be worried about drip or instant, anyway....
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See this all makes me laugh

The models show a system going out to sea and some automatically yell FISH without so much as even looking at what the actual steering mechanisms look like

Lets put it this way, if what StormW is showing is true, that first and only trough better be a big one.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7871
Quoting StormW:


How strong is the ridging? Hint: does the flow appear zonal or meridional?


It's becoming zonal, east to west. Upper lows are losing their influence.....don't you think?
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Quoting Floodman:
Hydrus, my friend! How are you?

Okay, that having been said, I got to go!

Play nice, friends...and remember, for the most, we are all friends here...
Absolutely.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Is a ridge with a zonal flow harder for a trough to break?

Basically storm is saying that the weakness will be zonal in a east to west fashion, not north to south
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will45
892. NOSinger 5:10 PM EDT on August 19, 2010

nope its like i said theres La Niña
in the Atlantic


I'm well aware of La Nina in the Atlantic....I said the Pacific...
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Quoting Baybuddy:
Those who doubt, go ahead and stock up on Capt. Morgan& Diet Coke. we haven't even started yet.


Diet coke? What kind of a pirate are you? Arrrrhh!
Member Since: April 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 5001
Quoting StormW:


You have a zonal flow (more of a west to east flow, pretty flat).



Zonal flow wouldn't allow a trof to dig so far south and be that strong. That's why it doesn't add up, especially in a strongly negative NAO period.
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Quoting StormW:


You have a zonal flow (more of a west to east flow, pretty flat).



Is a ridge with a zonal flow harder for a trough to break?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7871
Quoting BahaHurican:
So long as we don't count that brilliant idea about instant.... lol


...bite your tongue..but it will work in a pinch.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks pretty strong to me


Zonal?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Just an FYI...Rarely does the entire Caribbean reach 30C. It's happening this year and warming more every day. The big negative NAO is only going to help SSTs rise in the Tropical Atlantic or at least remain the same. I dread the day that a system makes it into the Caribbean with ideal upper level conditions. It's going to happen this year eventually, like it or not.





So what you're trying to say is that if the Caribbean was a girl, she'd be a "hottie"?

Like it or not, I don't like it. The "swoosh factor is much higher when you live on the water. So I will put my vote in early for nothing bigger than a Cat 1 or marginal Cat 2, anything bigger and I will not be happy. So keep that in mind. I appreciate you cooperation in this regard.
Member Since: April 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 5001
Those who doubt, go ahead and stock up on Capt. Morgan& Diet Coke. we haven't even started yet.
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Quoting StormW:


How strong is the ridging? Hint: does the flow appear zonal or meridional?


looks pretty strong to me
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7871
Caribbean Sat. Loop

Link
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Quoting Floodman:


Was that here or on his blog?


that was here
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Nothing but ridging, I dont see anymore troughs at all


Which means what?
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892. NOSinger 5:10 PM EDT on August 19, 2010

nope its like i said theres La Niña
in the Atlantic
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Hydrus, my friend! How are you?

Okay, that having been said, I got to go!

Play nice, friends...and remember, for the most, we are all friends here...
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I think we'll probably see something similar to Hurricane Fabian (2003).
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Quoting WeatherMum:
Been bringing in some stunning kings and spanish myself lately!


Great fishing in the gulf. All the charter boats and commercial fishing boats are still driving in circles for BP making more money than they did before the spill. Recreational fishing is booming.
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(Sorry, I know it's off topic, but I'm a met and sick of looking at it today. Yes, that IS possible.)

Actually allergic to seafood, so I fish it and the closest fisherman to me that wants it takes it Home! Fun too ! My son sobiki's my bait and I bring in the big boys. Hoping the water clears up soon for the smarty pants Pomps to come back out to play.

And with that, I'm starting dinner and then doing the evening data runs. Night all. See you on the board in the AM.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


The best method of preparing coffee during a power outage following a hurricane. It was really interesting with some great ideas. You should have been here.....LOL
So long as we don't count that brilliant idea about instant.... lol
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Quoting StormW:


Ok...let's assume that.

What doe you see over the U.S., west of the trof?



Nothing but ridging, I dont see anymore troughs at all
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7871
Quoting NEwxguy:


Hey,flood off tomorrow,so long weekend,visions of cold beer dancing in my head. You missed Storms tutorial yesterday,great stuff,I actually learned something,and thats no easy feat.


Was that here or on his blog?
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Quoting Floodman:


Where you at and who'd work an old ridge runner like you? LOL
Now there is something ya dont see often, Floodman calling something old. its,....its like a joke....Good Afternoon Floodman.:)
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893. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
will45
its called La Niña


I think you mean...El Nino...in the Pacific
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thanks
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Good afternoon.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


haha.......maybe so.....they want a pool not a hot tub.

lol
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ahh! I understand now. Thanks Storm! You are a great teacher
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Quoting Floodman:


So what happened in here that was noteworthy toay?


The best method of preparing coffee during a power outage following a hurricane. It was really interesting with some great ideas. You should have been here.....LOL
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Quoting iammothernature:
Does anybody know why the entire northern hemisphere is so quiet?

I realize things are starting to kick into gear here in the Atlantic, but the West Pacific, Central Pacific and Indian Ocean have all just been absolutely DEAD this entire season. So, whats up with that?


Blocking High over Russia the last month or so?
Welcome to the Horse Latitudes.
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Quoting StormW:
Let's review...the GFS is on the right side. Is this the trough that folks are speaking of?



Storm lets assume it is
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Forget the solar panels and all that . A yanmar diesel tractor with a PTO mounted gen. I've yet to find anything that mine won't run well on. Up to B80 , as well as JP5 mixed with clean motor oil.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Doesn't work so well when storms torn it down or thrown a 2x4 through it.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I'd like to know where the keep the list of common and known facts, sure would help sometimes to be able to consult it.


consult your knowledgeable tropical weather enthusiast and they will tell you that the GFS tends to have a poleward bias with systems this far out in the Atlantic
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7871
875. eyesontheweather 5:04 PM EDT on August 19, 2010

its called La Niña
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Ok but even so, still does not prove to me that the GFS does not overamplify troughs

It has been doing it for years and it is pretty common fact no matter what statistics you may show.
I'd like to know where the keep the list of common and known facts, sure would help sometimes to be able to consult it.
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Quoting WeatherMum:
Been bringing in some stunning kings and spanish myself lately!


I just hope to reel in a dozen Gulf and Southern Kingfish (ground mullet) to fry up. That's some good eating.
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
It to dang hot...Even the hurricanes don't want to stick their toes in the water


haha.......maybe so.....they want a pool not a hot tub.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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