The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tkeith:
Is that image you posted a minute ago off the African coast?


Thats the East Pacific
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Quoting xcool:
Hey xcool.it seems the blob in the carribean looks a bit elongated.And it's running out of time over water.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
Quoting leo305:
very below normal hurricane season thus far as we near september...



wow you must not know what an average hurricane season is, average seasons as of now would be on the 3rd named storm; we are currently average

add to that fact that La Nina seasons notoriously start late, end late and are above average and you get the picture.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Evening, I'll be very interested to see if kmanislander comments on the windspeed recorded at his home this evening just about half jour ago. I estimate the gusts in 50-60mph range here in South Sound, Grand Cayman , he lives roughly one mile from me so his home should have experienced roughly the same! What a nasty squall!
Hey petrol, was wondering what kind of wx u guys would get today. Nobody expects much more of that system, but those are some good justs for a "passing Twave"...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Evening, I'll be very interested to see if kmanislander comments on the windspeed recorded at his home this evening just about half jour ago. I estimate the gusts in 50-60mph range here in South Sound, Grand Cayman , he lives roughly one mile from me so his home should have experienced roughly the same! What a nasty squall!


That area of disturbed weather near and to the west of you has really expanded and slowed its pace. 850mb vorticity has increased throughout the day and it might try to organize slightly before heading into the Yucatan. It might have more of a chance on the other side.
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very below normal hurricane season thus far as we near september...

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NASA And Global Hawk take on Hurricane's
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Clasifican para observerlo mejor con los modelos de huracan y saber donde y cuando va.

They would classify it so they can use the hurricane models on it.


Gracias.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
not yet..
Is that image you posted a minute ago off the African coast?
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Good Evening, I'll be very interested to see if kmanislander comments on the windspeed recorded at his home this evening just about half jour ago. I estimate the gusts in 50-60mph range here in South Sound, Grand Cayman , he lives roughly one mile from me so his home should have experienced roughly the same! What a nasty squall!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
See this all makes me laugh

The models show a system going out to sea and some automatically yell FISH without so much as even looking at what the actual steering mechanisms look like

Lets put it this way, if what StormW is showing is true, that first and only trough better be a big one.
I think an Ike or Andrew track is possible.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
Quoting tatoprweather:


Why we can to see this to be classified as an invest when it is so far from any land area???
Clasifican para observerlo mejor con los modelos de huracan y saber donde y cuando va.

They would classify it so they can use the hurricane models on it.
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Afternoon fellow wunderbloggers.looaks like the mojo's rising!!!,this
is my first post using my new driodx!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting xcool:

We will get drenched...
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Quoting Chucktown:


Looks rather Omega-ish to me which usually produces a very sharp digging trough along the east coast. Now granted its August, but looks believable with that low over Hudson Bay.


With an Omega Block, you at least have a very strong ridge. A strong ridge is not depicted by the models over the United States.
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Quoting StormW:


Same question...that ridge is fairly flat west of the trof, for the trof to dig like that.





So then both models are showing a scenerio you don't deem likely.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol..In fact, there are TWO fairly strong trofs west and east of that non-existent ridge...


Looks rather Omega-ish to me which usually produces a very sharp digging trough along the east coast. Now granted its August, but looks believable with that low over Hudson Bay.
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Jason, do you have a video for today?
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955. xcool
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Quoting SeaMule:
ya know....one wonders if this year...with the SST's just posted...if we are in for a hypercane...you know....

in excess of 220 MPH. Storm....what theoretically, can these temps support?

feeeeel the heat.....some like it hot...some like it hot.....
And some sweat when the heat is on.
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By the way, the 18z GFS initializes a 1008mb low pressure with the area off the coast of Africa.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
this is not a invest at all what is going on here..


Why we can to see this to be classified as an invest when it is so far from any land area???
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Aruba,Jamaica ooo Danielle wanna take to Bermuda,Bahamas come on pretty momma;)


Love them Beach Boys!
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Quoting StormW:


Same question...that ridge is fairly flat west of the trof, for the trof to dig like that.





Lol..In fact, there are TWO fairly strong trofs west and east of that non-existent ridge...
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949. xcool
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OMG!!!!!!1111 18z GFS has started!!! LOLzzz!!11

Alright, I've used all the excitement about a model run. No one can get excited about it anymore.
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Well the ECMWF has shown this strong trough in place for 5 runs kicking the storm out to sea. when you have that model show consistency like that it's most likely going to happen.
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ya know....one wonders if this year...with the SST's just posted...if we are in for a hypercane...you know....

in excess of 220 MPH. Storm....what theoretically, can these temps support?

feeeeel the heat.....some like it hot...some like it hot.....
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Quoting StormW:


We have a winner! That was my point, where is the monster ridge to the west of that trof, pumping it to make it so strong?


I was thinking Tuscaloosa.
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Quoting StormW:


You mean at 144?


Ya, between 120 and 144. You can also see in that image the relation to the storm. Wish thoses graphics were in finer increments to see how it evolves.
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2008


2010
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939. xcool
The models often have a very hard time predicting the upper flow pattern and locations of highs/lows even in the short term. Just think back to how perfect the models were forecasting the position of the upper high would be for the redevelopment of TD 5. Perfect? I don't think so. It was ripped to shreds by shear. And this was in a region with the highest concentration of upper air obs. Same models forecast hostile winds aloft ahead of Alex-to-be.

All 3 main current models (GFS, EC, CMC) are also forecasting development off the Mid Atlantic Coast next Monday/Tuesday. What if they're wrong? Perhaps the Bermuda High will build westward more quickly and/or the high over the eastern U.S. may move offshore more quickly, blocking any recurvature

Moderator-Pro Metwxman57

www.storm2k.org/

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hot muggy balmy sticky middle of summer in the deep south along the coast and in Florida...late August into September....and the tropics are brewing.

ominously quiet, I think.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Do I get a chicken dinner?
With the trimmings...:)
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Quoting StormW:


I can guarantee you that's the trof folks are speaking of. 8-10 day mean...GFS shows recurvature prior to or almost at 50W...kinda think the storm will be there by then.


If you look at the latest ECMWF 500mb heights, it shows the trough prior to 168 hours.
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Quoting StormW:


We have a winner! That was my point, where is the monster ridge to the west of that trof, pumping it to make it so strong?


Yep...It's the same principle as in winter time. A huge trof dives south out of Canada bringing an Arctic blast. To the west of the trof, there has to be a strong ridge causing the unleashing of the cold air.
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Just throwing this out there.....we are going camping in Mississippi for Labor Day Weekend and just out of curiosity, I looked up the forecast in the Farmer's Almanac on the internet. Sept. 1st and 2nd is listed as sunny. Sept. 3rd thru the 6th is listed as possible hurricane. I looked up other places along the gulf coast....I live in Louisiana. According to it, that wknd. is a possible hurricane to hit the La./Ms. coasts. I don't normally read the Farmer's Almanac but it did predict snow in south La. 2 years ago.
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Quoting NOSinger:
will45
892. NOSinger 5:10 PM EDT on August 19, 2010

nope its like i said theres La Niña
in the Atlantic


I'm well aware of La Nina in the Atlantic....I said the Pacific...
Can't have la nina effects in the ATL without la nina in the PAC - because La nina, the actual wx phenomenon, is based on EPAC SSTs... the current dearth of activity worldwide is quite anomalous...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I surely do hope it never gets bad enough for me to be in a pinch.... lol

Of course, if the strike is bad enough, I guess nobody's going to be worried about drip or instant, anyway....


Well Baha, that's why I own a generator. Can't live on the Gulf Coast without one.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.