The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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2327. hydrus
Quoting 900MB:
HOLY SHIPS!

Ships has 95L up to 105mph in 96 hours. That would be impressive.

Storm- should East Coast (Montauk) be concerned?
Thx as always!
Montauk gets whacked by all kinds of storms. In September the Nor,Easters start. And some years the hurricanes..
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Last reported at 2010-Aug-20 06:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Aug-20 14:28 UTC.
Position N 13°18', W 026°24'.

Wind from 040 at 14 knots

Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 4 second period

Barometer 1008.4 mb
Air temperature 27.5 ° C
Visibility: greater than 10.8 NM
Dewpoint 24.1 ° C
Water temperature 29.0 ° C

Notes date/time lat lon naut miles run avg knots wind from wind knots barom visib wave height air temp dew point water temp
2010-Aug-20 06:00 N 13°18' W 026°24' 390 16.2 040 14 1008.4 10.8 1.5 27.5 24.1 29.0
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


I love Dr. Bill. I took his 3 quarter meteorology series at S. Alabama back in 92.
those were some fun classes. He's heading up a full blown Meteorology degree program out at South now.


Dr Bill Is Terrific! A true pro. I'll bet a great teacher as well.
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The BAMS suite has this going out to sea, but climatology disagrees somewhat.

Top 10 analog tracks for 95L

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2322. Vero1


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Storm,

can you please briefly explain the four table NAO chart that you are saying ouch about?

I can not properly read it due to the letters being blurry.

Also, are you saying ouch because of the potential track of future storms?

Thanks
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
Quoting SFlKatCane5:


Thats awesome
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2318. hydrus
Quoting Cotillion:
You mean the one by Scotland?



Supposedly giving off heavy rain, 70mph gusts, thunderstorms and an isolated tornado or two.

Had a downpour earlier, but that's it so far. Been the warmest day for ages, though (up to 74).
Every time I see that satellite picture I remember the 1979 Fastnet disaster.
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Good morning Storm! Happy Friday!

I keep hearing that the second potential storm is also going to re curve. Do you concur based on what the models are saying?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
Quoting KanKunKid:


I can't help but to wonder if somewhere in Japan, there is a Wunderblog type tropical weather discussion in Japanese. they're all looking at the west coast of Mexico and writing:
"It's a fish, I tell you!"
"What you saying? This is Pacific! They all fish!"
"No! No. Not this time Sakura1985! I have gut feeling!"
"NO! NO! Look at chart! See? It recurves and hit Hawaii!"
"You can't trust model so far out, I say it come here and knock socks off!"
" You crazy you drink too much saki last night"
" Well you...This comment cut off with samurai sword for being in violation of honor.



+1
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
thank the weak ab ridge for the curve out to sea for 95l.have seen systems in this area cross the atlantic and visit the se us.
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Until 95L makes name status, I will then say "the real deal might be coming"
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Major trouble brewing.
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95L looks to be seasons first major
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SHIPS brings 95L to 92 knots in 4 days and the LGEM takes it to 92 knots.
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2308. Vero1
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Quoting StormW:
OUCH!
4th day in a row:



Oh's no's.That looks like a real pain.
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2305. 900MB
HOLY SHIPS!

Ships has 95L up to 105mph in 96 hours. That would be impressive.

Storm- should East Coast (Montauk) be concerned?
Thx as always!
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Quoting will45:
Link


interesting


yeow!
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Quoting StormW:
OUCH!
4th day in a row:





a good recovery but beyond day-4 lots of spread...so tracks beyond a few days are very uncertain.
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2301. calder
cotillion, you in the uk?
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2300. will45
Link


interesting
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Quoting nola70119:
Here is my approach.....wait for this to at least become a well-defined and growing TD, and take a look at the model runs after dat.


+1
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
2297. breald
I'll check back later this afternoon. I have the day off and it is a beautiful day here in NE. The doggie park awaits.
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Quoting StormW:
Geez...I don't like the looks of the next system (CV)
It could track westward a pose a threat to the carribean,and u.s?.Also I gotta say that was probally the quickest classification I have seen the nhc do.
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Any body with a forecast for the High in the atlantic this coming week?! Thats what the local mets think is the key not a trough.
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Quoting Jax82:
Based on my Saturday plans (I'm going deep sea FISHING tomorrow and to the Jags vs DOLPHINS pre season opener) and the analysis of those plans I think its a sign this will be a Fish storm. ;)


Hmmmmm.... Testosterone-casting?

KIDDING! ;)
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Quoting StormW:


What I'll do is, when I finish my analysis of 95L, and get everything distributed, I'll take a look. May even include it in my synopsis.


Thank you StormW! Like everyone says on these boards, I really appreciate and look forward to your blogs as they are extremely informative and I always love another met's input. Thanks again!
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2287. K8eCane
Quoting nola70119:
Here is my approach.....wait for this to at least become a well-defined and growing TD, and take a look at the model runs after dat.


unless of course da models have it going to da GOMM den we can look at em now
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
ITS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ON THE EAST COAST.

Or TD7
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
invest 95L is moving west at 7 mph..if it keep moving west u will see the computer models go little south at 2pm..is not moving north west at all..its moving west right now.


Does this mean no fish
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Storm, I think somewhere in the US is in BIIIIIIIGGGGG trouble down the road, regardless of 95L
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Here is my approach.....wait for this to at least become a well-defined and growing TD, and take a look at the model runs after dat.
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I see we have 95L to look at.......not much but better than nothing. Will check in later, have a great Friday.
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Quoting StormW:


What I'll do is, when I finish my analysis of 95L, and get everything distributed, I'll take a look. May even include it in my synopsis.


Looking forward to it, Senior Chief.
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Quoting StormW:


I just wish I could write.


thanks ! :D
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:


Not bad at all...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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