The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1027 - 977

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Quoting StormW:


We have a winner! That was my point, where is the monster ridge to the west of that trof, pumping it to make it so strong?

Then riddle me this, riddler. lol. How come the gfs model along with the euro, at this point don't forecast what you and some others see as so obvious. If one believes one portion of a model run, (ie, a storm is in eminent) then shouldn't every portion of the model be believed (a trough is likewise eminent)?
Sort of like a big puzzle. All pieces have to fit for the end solution.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Not this time of year. Late August and September atmospheric patterns are developing as we speak. CV storms will roll off Africa and some will develop....some won't. We all watch them, and wait, models precluded, they will come. Good grief, I sound like Reed....arrrrrgggghhhhh.
a little bit of respect for StormW he is a veteran met/ has more experience than any of us
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
850mb vorticity continues to increase:

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
We had a pressure drop about 5 mb since 1 today winds are out S to SSW to WSW suggesting a low might be closing off, just my opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:


84hr
looks like we may have something to watch very soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Well, I'll let you judge for yourself. You know how when we see strong trofs come down on water vapor loop imagery across the U.S. What is usually west of those? And, if we are in a pretty decent negative NAO, I doubt if a trof makes it that far south.


Not this time of year. Late August and September atmospheric patterns are developing as we speak. CV storms will roll off Africa and some will develop....some won't. We all watch them, and wait, models precluded, they will come. Good grief, I sound like Reed....arrrrrgggghhhhh.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
More than likely an OTS solution on the 18z GFS.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
1019. xcool


84hr
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1018. Walshy
Ignore button on here is useless when people quote the trolls like Leo. You do know all he wants is people to quote him. He has nobody to talk to probably..


Out.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Definitely.

No one can deny it. Forgot to mention Georges.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hi everyone i see computer models are locked in on the wave near the cape verde islands
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1015. Walshy
Tornado Warning north-west of Detroit Michigan.

I'll check back later.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
pretty good guesstimate even if I have to say so myself , Owen Roberts Airport , Grand Cayman about 2 and a half miles NE of where I live recorded a wind gust of 60mph less than an hour ago , click on the link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:
very below normal hurricane season thus far as we near september...


See here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1012. hydrus
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Mitch 1998, along with Andrew 1992, were some of the worst hurricanes of the 1990's decade.
Definitely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
La Nina seasons since 1995 and storm #s on this date

1995 - 7 storms (8th formed on August 22nd)
1998 - 2 storms (3rd formed on August 21st)
1999 - 3 storms (4th formed on August 24th)
2000 - 4 storms (5th formed on September 1st)
2001 - 3 storms (4th formed on August 22nd)
2007 - 5 storms (6th formed on September 1st)
2008 - 6 storms (7th formed on August 25th)

There are a few other La Nina seasons, but to show in 1998, 1999 and 2000 the last of the storms formed on this date. 1995 and 2008 can be considered 2 of the most hyperactive seasons in recent memory.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Average formation of the 3rd storm is August 13th

Average formation of the 4th storm is August 23rd

Also I bet if a table was created to show formation for La Nina seasons; it would show a sharp increase of activity after this date and more storms forming than just the average

An Average season has only 7 more storms form between now and November 30th.
See my blog for more info about la nina seasons.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
66 hours

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
1008. xcool


66hr
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting breald:


Big Brother? As in the charity Big Brother? Why would you think they need to record your voice?


Sorry, sometimes I feel someone is watching, and listening. Call it paranoia if you like, but that call was absurd. Back to the tropics.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting leo305:
I meant below normal based on the past decade of above average storms


not during La Nina seasons since 1995 it isn't
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
1003. smuldy
just to be fair it has been the slowest season on record taking both basins into account but yes it is average in the atlantic (below average for ace though) and yes there is a very good chance it will wind up above average and if this cv storm kicks up wipe the ace comment away in a week
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
NASA And Global Hawk take on Hurricane's


Greetings Patrick...thanks for the link...that Global Hawk carries quite a varity of sensors...I cant wait to see the works that will come out of this project...the GH is perfect for this particular mission. Take care, and watch those hooks while sorting...they bite!

v/r

Jon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1000. leo305
I meant below normal based on the past decade of above average storms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
999. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
54 hours

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Ridge is 3mb stronger on the 18Z run
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The "face" of the 1998 hurricane season.


Mitch 1998, along with Andrew 1992, were some of the worst hurricanes of the 1990's decade.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
number 1000?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
Jason, do you have a video for today?



dont get him started
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Sorry, had to leave the blog for a phone call. It was a computer voice asking me if I owned a dog under 25 pounds. I messed up and said no. Who would care if I owned a dog.....period. Now big bother has my voice imprint. If you get the call, squeeze your nose and say nyet. Sorry for being OT.


Big Brother? As in the charity Big Brother? Why would you think they need to record your voice?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The "face" of the 1998 hurricane season.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Not really....... Things don't ramp up usually until after mid august.....

Just look at the '98 season for example
No storms in June
1 storm in July
The next storm only formed around Aug 21
The season ended with
14 named storms
10 Hurricanes
3 Major canes
Over 11,000 deaths




Average formation of the 3rd storm is August 13th

Average formation of the 4th storm is August 23rd

Also I bet if a table was created to show formation for La Nina seasons; it would show a sharp increase of activity after this date and more storms forming than just the average

An Average season has only 7 more storms form between now and November 30th.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
988. xcool


18zz
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting leo305:
very below normal hurricane season thus far as we near september...



Not really....... Things don't ramp up usually until after mid august.....

Just look at the '98 season for example
No storms in June
1 storm in July
The next storm only formed around Aug 21
The season ended with
14 named storms
10 Hurricanes
3 Major canes
Over 11,000 deaths


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the GFS develops the CV wave in 48 hours or so.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
985. xcool
washingtonian115 .yeah ruun out of time.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Sorry, had to leave the blog for a phone call. It was a computer voice asking me if I owned a dog under 25 pounds. I messed up and said no. Who would care if I owned a dog.....period. Now big bother has my voice imprint. If you get the call, squeeze your nose and say nyet. Sorry for being OT.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey xcool.it seems the blob in the carribean looks a bit elongated.And it's running out of time over water.

GOOD!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17091
Quoting tatoprweather:


Gracias.
Por nada. Ojala que este systema queda en el mar, y no sobre nuestras islas lindas.... lol

YW. I hope this system stays out to sea, and not over our lovely islands...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


With an Omega Block, you at least have a very strong ridge. A strong ridge is not depicted by the models over the United States.


Hence the "ish" with the Omega. Agree, not a true Omega, but with trough that is being shown on GFS and Euro, you don't need a strong ridge, the digging trough will help to amplify both sides.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Thats the East Pacific
Thanks Chaser
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
Is that image you posted a minute ago off the African coast?


Thats the East Pacific
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921

Viewing: 1027 - 977

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
65 °F
Overcast