The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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1077. Patrap
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
1060. Patrap..

that's cool
in RUSSIAN... where did you get that?



I have a source,,REUTERS wire.

And babelfish
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
La Nina seasons since 1995 and storm #s on this date

1995 - 7 storms (8th formed on August 22nd)
1998 - 2 storms (3rd formed on August 21st)
1999 - 3 storms (4th formed on August 24th)
2000 - 4 storms (5th formed on September 1st)
2001 - 3 storms (4th formed on August 22nd)
2007 - 5 storms (6th formed on September 1st)
2008 - 6 storms (7th formed on August 25th)

There are a few other La Nina seasons, but to show in 1998, 1999 and 2000 the last of the storms formed on this date. 1995 and 2008 can be considered 2 of the most hyperactive seasons in recent memory.

1995 the most memorable of them.
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1074. smuldy
Quoting StormW:


I appreciate the gesture, but I'm not saying it can't recurve...flolks are starting to read too much into what I'm saying. Reading the map for the 500mb 8-10 day anomaly mean, again, with a zonal flow depicted west of the trof, does not support a deep trof as shown by the GFS.
oh ok sorry i thought you implied without the trough recurvature would happen after 50w maybe 60 since the trough wouldn't be that far south to recurve it that soon

clarification: maybe at 60w not maybe after 60w
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Strong Hurricane heading OTS

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
1071. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
358 PM CDT Thursday Aug 19 2010


Synopsis...
latest surface analysis showed the 1016mb high over the central
and eastern Gulf...southwest flow over north Gulf and north
central Gulf Coast...and stationary boundary over middle south to middle
Atlantic coast. Upper air analysis showed an anticyclonic
circulation over Arkansas and another North Florida...creating a
moisture convergence zone from southwest Louisiana to the
Carolinas. Cyclonic circulation associated with the decayed
tropical system has move north of the forecast area. However...precipitable water
values remain around 2.4 inches.


&&


Discussion...
with cyclonic circulation associated with the remnants of
Tropical Depression Five well north of the forecast area...the
threat of deep night time convection has decreased inland. Last
several nights only showers have developed in the early morning
hours. Ergo...rain chances will be slightly lower ... still a
chance in the evening. Radar estimates from Wednesday showed 6 to
8 inches of rainfall across extreme western Wilkinson County and
northern Pointe Coupee Parish. High precipitable water values and deep moisture
will still yield isolated showers inland after midnight toward
Friday morning. Drying occurred to today but excessive runoff is
possible with any storm for the remainder of the afternoon. In
addition...late afternoon storms with a slow movement will be a
problem over rain soaked areas. Ergo...will allow Flash Flood
Watch to expire at 7 PM this evening. Middle layer anticyclonic flow
or high over Florida will build and move west over the Gulf Coast
region. Some relatively middle layer dry...over the central Caribbean
and east of the wave...will advect northwest to the central Gulf
Friday and over southern zones Friday night. This could curtail
rain chances over the coastal waters and southern zones Friday
night into Saturday. High will continue to track northwest over
Texas and allow the old boundary and associated moisture to sag
south to North Florida. We could establish Montgomery stream
functions and track this air mass with Theta-E values to see if
this next system is associated with the remnants...but will leave
that to researchers. A weak inverted trough or weak low over
northeast Gulf Monday and track west across the north Gulf through
Wednesday. Have increased rain chances up to 50 percent each day
next week. Later packages may increase increase rain chances to
likely Tuesday through Friday of next week.

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I think that pic jason showed a few pages back is the area between the CV Islands and Africa
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
Quoting washingtonian115:
So looking at the models this thing could start devloping on mon-tues of next week.And with the ridge expecting to build in like with the graph storm showed my chances of a Andrew,or Ike track have increased.
The chances as of of now of an Ike track is much less thyan an Andrew track.
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1067. hydrus
Quoting KanKunKid:

I'll never forget Georges (oh gosh, I sound li!) I saw it coming when I was in Mayville Wisconsin and I drove to the airport in Milwaukee and caught the last Northwest flight to RSW Fort myers. The flight was almost empty. As soon as I got off they shut the door, taxied down the ramp and were gone in 10 minutes. I had a 50 minute drive to a marina just south of Punta Gorda where I was living on a sailboat. By the time I got there the winds were howling and rain bands were hitting the area. It was about 1245 AM. I loaded everything in my truck that could be damaged by water and headed for Orlando to stay with friends. When I got there (after stopping once in a rest area that look like a Mexican refugee camp) it was about 430. The weather came on and they said the worst of Georges hit SW FL about 1230 and now its headed fer Texas! About then I realized: I needed a drink. But Georges went down into the history books as a biggie. But I never liked him, nope, not one bit.
What was the name of the marina south of Punta Gorda? I ask because I lived at Fishermans Village in the 1980,s.
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Quoting Clearwater1:


Maybe not, but I'll try. What I mean is if one looks at a model run, does not the model take all components into consideration as to track, speed, size, etc? So, one can't pick and choose different elements of any one model run. Take it all as a whole in other words.


They are just one of the tools one can look at, I do not believe the models saw the shear coming on TD5...
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In soviet Russia, Tropical Weather Outlook posts YOU!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
1060. Patrap..

that's cool
in RUSSIAN... where did you get that?
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Quoting StormW:


I appreciate the gesture, but I'm not saying it can't recurve...flolks are starting to read too much into what I'm saying. Reading the map for the 500mb 8-10 day anomaly mean, again, with a zonal flow depicted west of the trof, does not support a deep trof as shown by the GFS.

Speaking for myself, it's because I still have to read up on zonal flows. I'm still working on figuring out steering currents that you helped me with last season. lol Thanks by the way for that.
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1062. IKE
Quoting washingtonian115:
So looking at the models this thing could start devloping on mon-tues of next week.And with the ridge expecting to build in like with the graph storm showed my chances of a Andrew,or Ike track have increased.


A week from now, according to the GFS and ECMWF, this will be heading to the north Atlantic.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
a little bit of respect for StormW he is a veteran met/ has more experience than any of us


I have all the respect in the world for StormW, been reading his forcasts for years and find them invaluble. I didn't dissagre with him.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
So looking at the models this thing could start devloping on mon-tues of next week.And with the ridge expecting to build in like with the graph storm showed my chances of a Andrew,or Ike track have increased.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


jaja bueno pero no parece que seas una de esas personas no? =)
no
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Quoting StormW:


You wanna clarify that? What I'm talking of is, with a zonal pattern depicted by the 500mb mean by both models at the 8-10 day time frame, does not support a deep trof in the east, with a zonal flow west of it. Period.


Maybe not, but I'll try. What I mean is if one looks at a model run, does not the model take all components into consideration as to track, speed, size, etc? So, one can't pick and choose different elements of any one model run. Take it all as a whole in other words.
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The tropical wave near the cape verde islands continues to become organized vorticy continues to get stronger and the last few frames convection has increased considerably
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144
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
1051. IKE
Headed to the fishes again...



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Quoting Seflhurricane:
muchas personas aqui no hablan espanol, pero correcto la onda tropical enta formando bastante rapido


jaja bueno pero no parece que seas una de esas personas no? =)
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Absolutely not, any forecast model can be right with formation but wrong with track


I agree, but doesn't the model take in all components to forecast the track and size. So, are you saying you can pick and choose what part of a model you like or dislike? Not arguing, just curious.
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Howdy all...
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
1044. smuldy
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


We are still allowed to disagree with him lol
yes you are, but when you do you will be wrong more often than not, and when it makes it west of 50 before recurvature you owe storm at least a 'you were right' post lol
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1043. xcool


1008mb low in gom
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15671
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
Quoting flightweatherfan:
goodevening everyone! new to the wu

Welcome to the Blog! :)
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Hola,

A pesar del hecho que no soy un met a mi me parece que nuestra ola tropical esta desarollando bastante bien esta tarde.
Y lo de esa cuna de alta presion de que todos han estado hablando.. creo que si rezamos o si pensamos en ella muy fuerte, desaparecera y sera una tormeta para los peces...

salu2
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


hard to read tone on a message board haha, just saying. no offense
you can tell by the person and the conversation, there are just some people who question him without facts, then he gets upset, and he is one of the best on here that we ALWAYS count on
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
agree but not with that tone


hard to read tone on a message board haha, just saying. no offense
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Out to 129 on StormVista for the 18z GFS and a recurve looks imminent.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
Quoting flightweatherfan:
goodevening everyone! new to the wu
WELCOME
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Quoting StormW:


We have a winner! That was my point, where is the monster ridge to the west of that trof, pumping it to make it so strong?

Then riddle me this, riddler. lol. How come the gfs model along with the euro, at this point don't forecast what you and some others see as so obvious. If one believes one portion of a model run, (ie, a storm is in eminent) then shouldn't every portion of the model be believed (a trough is likewise eminent)?
Sort of like a big puzzle. All pieces have to fit for the end solution.



Absolutely not, any forecast model can be right with formation but wrong with track
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
goodevening everyone! new to the wu
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


We are still allowed to disagree with him lol
agree but not with that tone
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
850mb vorticity continues to increase:


Hmmm...
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
a little bit of respect for StormW he is a veteran met/ has more experience than any of us


We are still allowed to disagree with him lol
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
850mb vorticity continues to increase:

looks like we may have Orange at the next TWO
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1028. xcool


102hrs
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15671
Quoting StormW:


We have a winner! That was my point, where is the monster ridge to the west of that trof, pumping it to make it so strong?

Then riddle me this, riddler. lol. How come the gfs model along with the euro, at this point don't forecast what you and some others see as so obvious. If one believes one portion of a model run, (ie, a storm is in eminent) then shouldn't every portion of the model be believed (a trough is likewise eminent)?
Sort of like a big puzzle. All pieces have to fit for the end solution.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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