The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Out to Sea
Oh, ok. Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's an OTS?


Out To Sea
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's an OTS?


Out to Sea
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
More than likely an OTS solution on the 18z GFS.
What's an OTS?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's gonno be a 40mph TS. Trust me lol.
I'm sure it will.... at some point in its life.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21595
Quoting StormW:
If we remain in a negative NAO, this is the most likely pattern:




Here is the excerpt again from the article I posted earlier. Does it kinda match the picture?

Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east, is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts.


By jove, I think I got it! And if this sets up, we are in deep doo doo!!!! (Can I say "doo doo?") Thanks, Storm for the visual picture with the explanation.
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1117. smuldy
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's gonna be a 40mph TS. Trust me lol.
any 2,400hr model runs on igor yet for verificaion? j/k
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Jajaja eres un nerdo y soy un geek. jaja

hahaha
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Let's say that the GFS and ECMWF were reacting correctly to the troughs and whatnot.
Where would they show the storm at the end of the run?

That's a better way to word my question.

Thanks.
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In other words StormW is saying that what the GFS and ECMWF is showing is not matching what the pattern is showing
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting StormW:
If we remain in a negative NAO, this is the most likely pattern:




Here is the excerpt again from the article I posted earlier. Does it kinda match the picture?

Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east, is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts.


Where would this steer a storm?
I guess I should follow the arrows but then when they go in circles I get confused.
Thanks.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I think Igor will grant your wish.That's suppose to be the bad boy of the season.

It's gonna be a 40mph TS. Trust me lol.
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Quoting bjdsrq:


Did someone hit the anemometer with with a leaf blower?
About 20 miles away from the airport on the eastern end of the island we had wind gusts to 46 mph. Power just came back on after being off for about 1 1/2 hours. Lots of rain and sky very black.
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1103. Dakster
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
In soviet Russia, Tropical Weather Outlook posts YOU!


LOL
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1100. washingtonian115 10:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

I must not have gotten that memo
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting StormW:


I still have trouble with English.

\
Was, voher commen sie?
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Quoting zicoille:
Why all the systems go in the f***** North. We are waiting for them in the northern leewards islands with planteur and ti-punch.....

Come hurricane cat 4 or 5, come....
I think Igor will grant your wish.That's suppose to be the bad boy of the season.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16441
1099. Patrap
Today wasnt a fishing day.

Twas a Portlight day for me.

But the weekend approaches fast!!
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Quoting StormW:


I still have trouble with English.
My bad Senior, how about Coast Guard english?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
you can tell by the person and the conversation, there are just some people who question him without facts, then he gets upset, and he is one of the best on here that we ALWAYS count on
Trying to figure out why u are so upset. I didn't even see StormSurgeon disagree w/ Storm in the first place; if anything, sounds like he was AGREEing....

We can get a bit hypersensitive, at time. After all, "it's just a blog".... ok, the best-goshdarned little blog on the wx internet... but still....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21595
Quoting Patrap:



I have a source,,REUTERS wire.

And babelfish


Catch any reds?
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1095. bjdsrq
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
pretty good guesstimate even if I have to say so myself , Owen Roberts Airport , Grand Cayman about 2 and a half miles NE of where I live recorded a wind gust of 60mph less than an hour ago , click on the link


Did someone hit the anemometer with with a leaf blower?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Somebody said it in here before; trust the models - if u trust them - 72 hours out MAX. After that it's all fictions and fairy tales. 72 hrs out, we're pretty likely to see storm formation of some kind. After that? it's anybody's guess.....


agreed

as I said before, formation in the short team is something that is much more believable than any sort of track in the long term
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting BahaHurican:
Somebody said it in here before; trust the models - if u trust them - 72 hours out MAX. After that it's all fictions and fairy tales. 72 hrs out, we're pretty likely to see storm formation of some kind. After that? it's anybody's guess.....
I agree and I also think that for the most part the NHC nails it three days out from landfall.
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Would it be true that the slower this takes to develop, the possibility of a further west track exists and vise versa?
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Quoting StormW:


We have a winner! That was my point, where is the monster ridge to the west of that trof, pumping it to make it so strong?

Then riddle me this, riddler. lol. How come the gfs model along with the euro, at this point don't forecast what you and some others see as so obvious. If one believes one portion of a model run, (ie, a storm is in eminent) then shouldn't every portion of the model be believed (a trough is likewise eminent)?
Sort of like a big puzzle. All pieces have to fit for the end solution.

Somebody said it in here before; trust the models - if u trust them - 72 hours out MAX. After that it's all fictions and fairy tales. 72 hrs out, we're pretty likely to see storm formation of some kind. After that? it's anybody's guess.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21595
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


No, its and area in the EPAC.

He wanted to know why it wasn't an invest,



ah yea looking at that I am kind of wondering the same thing

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Welcome to the Blog! :)



saludos!
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Quoting StormW:


I think I understand what you're trying to say, and models do take into consideration the parameters as a whole. But again, looking at what I pointed out on the map, It's very likely the models are counting on that trof being as deep as projected by the GFS, however in the 500mb mean map, the ECMWF has a less stronger trof. Both models are showing t at that time frame, a zonal flow across much of the U.S...and to the best of my meteorological ability, you don't get deep trofs with a zonal flow to the west of the trof.


Thanks and thanks for understanding what I was trying to state.
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1085. Patrap
I worry when something approaches the Leewards with a W to WNW Heading .

Till then,..I fish a lot.
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Ya'll forgive me please, but can we either speak english or spanish here? I can handle either but the spanglish is confusing...
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Quoting Patrap:
Атлантический тропический внешний вид погоды 000 ABNT20 KNHC 191743 TWOAT

ТРОПИЧЕСКИЙ ВНЕШНИЙ ВИД ПОГОДЫ ЦЕНТР МАЙАМИ FL УРАГАНА NWS TPC/NATIONAL 200 PM EDT THU 19-ОЕ АВГУСТА 2010 ДЛЯ СЕВЕРОАТЛАНТИЧЕСКОГО… КАРИБСКОГО МОРЯ И МЕКСИКАНСКОГО ЗАЛИВА… ЛИВНИ И ГРОЗЫ УВЕЛИЧИВАЛИ НАД ПРОШЛЫМ НЕСКОЛЬКО ЧАСОВ В СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВЕ С ТРОПИЧЕСКОЙ ВОЛНОЙ КОТОРАЯ ДВИГАТЬ WESTWARD НА ОКОЛО 15 MPH НАД ЗАПАДНЫМ КАРИБСКИМ МОРЕМ. КАК БЫ… НЕТ ЗНАЧИТЕЛЬНО РАЗВИТИЕ ПРЕДПОЛОЖЕНО ПЕРЕД ДВИЖЕНИЯМИ ЭТОЙ СИСТЕМЫ НАД СЕГОДНЕЙ ВЕЧЕРОМ ПОЛУОСТРОВА ЮКАТАН И ЦЕНТРАЛЬНАЯ АМЕРИКА И ПРЕДЫДУЩЕЙ ПЯТНИЦЕЙ. ВСЕ ЕЩЕ НИЗКИЙ ШАНС… 10 ПРОЦЕНТОВ… ТРОПИЧЕСКОГО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ ЦИКЛОНЧИКА ВО ВРЕМЯ СЛЕДУЮЩИХ 48 ЧАСОВ. ОБШИРНЫЙ РАЙОН НАРУШЕННОЙ ПОГОДЫ УДЛИНЯЕТ ОТ ЗАПАДНОГО ПОБЕРЕЖЬЯ АФРИКА К ЮГУ ОСТРОВОВ CAPE VERDE. ДЕЗОРГАНИЗОВАНА СВЯЗАННАЯ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТЬ ПРИ ЛИВНЯ И ГРОЗЫ… НО УСЛОВИЯ ОКРУЖАЮЩЕЙ СРЕДЫ КАЖУТСЯ БЛАГОПРИЯТНЫМИ ДЛЯ НЕКОТОРОГО РАЗВИТИЯ ЭТОЙ СИСТЕМЫ ПО МЕРЕ ТОГО КАК ОНА ДВИГАЕТ МЕДЛЕННО WESTWARD. НИЗКИЙ УРОВЕНЬ CHANCE… 20 ПРОЦЕНТОВ… ЭТОЙ СИСТЕМЫ ТРОПИЧЕСКИМ ЦИКЛОНЧИКОМ ВО ВРЕМЯ СЛЕДУЮЩИХ 48 ЧАСОВ.

В ДРУГОМ МЕСТЕ… ТРОПИЧЕСКОЕ ОБРАЗОВАНИЕ ЦИКЛОНЧИКА НЕ ПРЕДПОЛОЖЕНО ВО ВРЕМЯ СЛЕДУЮЩИХ 48 ЧАСОВ. $$ ПРОГНОЗИСТ BERG/PASCH


Oh no! big Russian bother.......LOL,,, So Pat, you jumping on the long range forcast?
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


I have all the respect in the world for StormW, been reading his forcasts for years and find them invaluble. I didn't dissagre with him.
okay just seeing a bit of tension and last time storm got upset with someone else and we need him
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
I think that pic jason showed a few pages back is the area between the CV Islands and Africa


No, its and area in the EPAC.

He wanted to know why it wasn't an invest.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
1077. Patrap
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
1060. Patrap..

that's cool
in RUSSIAN... where did you get that?



I have a source,,REUTERS wire.

And babelfish
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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