The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


Those are from 2 days ago.
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Quoting tornadolarkin:
Does anyone have any idea of when the NHC will declare this thing an invest?


Tomorrow if not tonight.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32501
Quoting tornadolarkin:
Does anyone have any idea of when the NHC will declare this thing an invest?


Probably tomorrow morning.
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Quoting tornadolarkin:
Does anyone have any idea of when the NHC will declare this thing an invest?
2 TWOs from now? I think they want to decide WHICH Twave to initialize, eh? plus perhaps a little persistence in closed low / convection would be appreciated...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not saying this will happen in anyway but...remember when the first model runs came out on Frances,and evryone was declaring it a fish.Of course I'm not saying this will happen in any case.Just a given thought.


the early model runs had Frances and Ike both going out to sea

and they were both further west than this area is now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866
1322. will45
Quoting tornadolarkin:
Does anyone have any idea of when the NHC will declare this thing an invest?



when it gets enough points
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1321. Grothar
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Not saying this will happen in anyway but...remember when the first model runs came out on Frances,and evryone was declaring it a fish.Of course I'm not saying this will happen in any case.Just a given thought.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17472
1319. tkeith
the models will always do the cha cha

that'll be worth the price of admission to see..
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Does anyone have any idea of when the NHC will declare this thing an invest?
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C'mon, Djeff, I actually want to find out what he thinks about the next 24-72. I agree with him about the 144hr thing; don't u?

Reed, take a look at stuff and tell me what u think about this "monsoon trough 2 Twave intereaction" scenario being mooted about...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting BahaHurican:
u looked at any live data yet? things look to be getting interesting cyclogenesiswise.... the 0z run tonight might actually be interesting... lol


Henry Margusity said and I quote..

"we will have 24 runs before this threatens anybody if it threatens at all. Models are subject to change, it's like tracking a blizzard where the models will always do the cha cha until we get a general idea of where the storm is going to go."
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Quoting reedzone:


There are no chances lol.. We won't know what will happen, I can see this either recurve or effect the USA, maybe go into the Caribbean. In fact, the NAO is against recurvature, but can allow some storms to recurve in that period. Not trying to bust anyones dream of a fish storm, but it's possible the models take a shift after it develops, i've seen it before.
Every single global model has it recurving, so even though it isn't a tropical cyclone, there is a good "chance" that it will recurve. So yes, there are chances.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
We will have a good idea of what should happen once this is declared an invest and we get the the models run on it.

I think we already have a decent idea of what is going to happen with all of our global models suggesting a recurve.
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1312. GCAT
Quoting angiest:


Select September long track/Cape Verde Texas landfalls:






Thats over 100 years
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Quoting reedzone:
I'm sorry but the storm hasn't even formed yet, this is NOT a fish nor a USA threat right now. Patience is a virtue, just because models show a recurvature doesn't mean it will happen.
u looked at any live data yet? things look to be getting interesting cyclogenesiswise.... the 0z run tonight might actually be interesting... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
1304. BahaHurican 8:42 PM EDT on August 19, 2010

LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting DestinJeff:


oh, the afternoon too?


Early Afternoon actually, you were here
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I eventually expect to see an invest and,a code orange by at least Saturday morning.Sounds like a good bet?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17472
will no 95L it looks like
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Quoting reedzone:


I know I've been repeating this all afternoon, but people need to look at the big picture and not fantasize on the models. We simply wont know where this will go for another week.
A week? Seriously? In a week it will be by the northern Lesser Antilles, at that point it'll be pretty clear whether or not it will hit the U.S or recurve.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thanks for telling us...again. We understand, although chances are that it will recurve, however not as far east as models depict.


There are no chances lol.. We won't know what will happen, I can see this either recurve or effect the USA, maybe go into the Caribbean. In fact, the NAO is against recurvature, but can allow some storms to recurve in that period. Not trying to bust anyones dream of a fish storm, but it's possible the models take a shift after it develops, i've seen it before.
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Some of the posts at that other place have me smiling... good luck, MIA'cane.... lol

Regardless of the various noises, [including 1 incredible post that says NE CAR don't need to worry since all the models turn the storm at 45W !!!] anybody beween Antigua and Connecticut is well within his or her rights to follow the progress of this storm. Until it gets going and we get a stronger sense of the orientation of the high and the progress of that trough, it's anybody's ball game up in there. I don't think the high will be strong enough or push far enough south for this to seriously threaten the CAR. It would be nice if this could perform a clean recurve around 60-70-60 W without actually touching any land areas. That would get it close enough for some study but not cause any damage. However, I'm not gonna hold my breath until dissipation . . .

Later, all.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting Hurricanes101:
they dropped the pressure of 92E down to 1005mb
Pretty impressive.

EP, 92, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 177N, 1068W, 25, 1005, DB,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Pre-Bill

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1300. GCAT
August 20th and NO US trop threats? Could we get through August,the entire month? Could we
be delayed like the Tornado season was? Could we be seeing a more active October, Nov and maybe Dec? I dont think their is an answer!
Are the forcasting models relevant if you keep
changing them every 30 days?
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Well we entering full CV season there is a high probability that the system south of CV will intensify since i climatology tells so. Even in an apparently average or below average season as this one is looking. We should see 2 to 5 systems developing in that area in the next 3 to 4 weeks or so. You don't need to be an expert to guess that! In October and November we should see two or 3 more. Maybe we end the season with 11 to 13 storms the most.Just guessing after 52 years of experience living in the caribbean.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


who pulled his string?


I know I've been repeating this all afternoon, but people need to look at the big picture and not fantasize on the models. We simply wont know where this will go for another week.
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Quoting reedzone:
I'm sorry but the storm hasn't even formed yet, this is NOT a fish nor a USA threat right now. Patience is a virtue, just because models show a recurvature doesn't mean it will happen.
Thanks for telling us...again. We understand, although chances are that it will recurve, however not as far east as models depict.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
they dropped the pressure of 92E down to 1005mb
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866


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The Tropical Wave looks like pre-Bill (90L) from last year. The structure is good.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
1278. washingtonian115 12:29 AM GMT on August 20, 2010

Warren Madden and Nicole Mitchell both fly with the hurricane hunters, so I am sure they know their stuff too


I think with TWC for me it isn't that the people there do not know weather, its that since they were taken over, they are becoming less and less of a weather station with what shows they chose to show.
You mean like crappy movie fridays?.It's a sad shame.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17472
1290. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere


As of fri 20 Aug 2010 00:36:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific
92E.INVEST

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
93W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What about Jeff Morrow?. He seems to be good at his job.


I edited to include him and some others.
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I'm sorry but the storm hasn't even formed yet, this is NOT a fish nor a USA threat right now. Patience is a virtue, just because models show a recurvature doesn't mean it will happen.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on vorticity product and satellite imagery I would say that an area of low pressure has developed with PGI31L. It remains weak in my eyes at the moment.


well check out the latest surface map, while there was no "L" shown on the map; one could clearly see the windbarbs depicting a low
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866
Blog Update!

Tropical Weather Analysis - August 19 2010 - Tropical Update!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32501
Based on vorticity product and satellite imagery I would say that an area of low pressure has developed with PGI31L. It remains weak in my eyes at the moment.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1284. flsky
Major disaster declared for IL
Link
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Sorry
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It's a good thing the GFS is predicting a fishy storm. The hurricane from the Eastern Wave is going to be a big fish storm!
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1278. washingtonian115 12:29 AM GMT on August 20, 2010

Warren Madden and Nicole Mitchell both fly with the hurricane hunters, so I am sure they know their stuff too


I think with TWC for me it isn't that the people there do not know weather, its that since they were taken over, they are becoming less and less of a weather station with what shows they chose to show.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866
Quoting washingtonian115:
What about Jeff Morrow?. He seems to be good at his job.


I think he does good Tropical Updates. Wish he was on more.
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Source: WWLTV New Orleans
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Experts? The only ones there that are experts are Forbes, Cantore, and Knabb.
What about Jeff Morrow?. He seems to be good at his job.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17472
Quoting MelbourneTom:


Not sure about SW FL but I may need to power down the computer soon. Link


wow.. thats a pretty good line!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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