The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting blsealevel:


Agree; but you also have to belive in your tools, isnt the data input needed for modeling

Not in the middle of the ocean. Models rely on upper air plots primarily and pretty sure not many balloons are launched over the ocean. Junk in junk out. Too far otu to believe models. Chances are higher that it will recurve as models agree and ridge expected to weaken however models always adjust westard. No low center yet so models not all over it yet either.
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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 6 (Frances)

Frances was inside of the cone, on the left portion. The NHC failed to note the westward kick though.
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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 6 (Frances)

And little did almost anyone know that it was going to be a real pain for the u.s,and bahamas.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
Quoting blsealevel:


Agree; but you also have to belive in your tools, isnt the data input needed for modeling


yes but models are notoriously bad for the long term forecast track
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Off topic venting: she asked me to fix the clock. The hour hand is pointing between hours when the minute hand is at the 12. After an hour of getting the face exposed, I fixed it...then broke the glass putting it back together. I blame the humidity...reading 67% on the present unglassed dial
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
So where are all the westcasters tonight?
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1370. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO! Look at my new colors...gotta say, pink is where its at!




Using Paint Brush, again? Not nice to fool with Mother Nature. LOL
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Quoting lahurrbuff:
Love the pink Miami!!!
LOL, that's one vote for me, zero for Grothar.
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Quoting Twinkster:
I don't understand why the models recurve this. Everything points to more of a westward motion towards se us. With a strong nao, zonal flow, and an above average temperature outlook for 8-14 days for eastern seaboard that would indicate a ridging pattern not troughing pattern.

I don't see what makes the models believe the trough will be that amplified and also be able to dip far enough south.

Hurricane Frances first track as some have been referring to is a good example of how long range forecast models for a recurve can be wrong. This far out you have to look at the data and common sense not the models


Agree; but you also have to belive in your tools, isnt the data input needed for modeling
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1367. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
11.3N/28.7W
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Love the pink Miami!!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO! Look at my new colors...gotta say, pink is where its at!



The pink enhancements are the dust enhancements. makes it easy to see small scale duststorms
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Reed, I'll check back later to see what ur thinking....

Everybody else, I'm going to try that "go to bed early, check model runs at 1:15 a.m..... maybe it'll work....

G'night to those who won't be up at 1:30.... lol


Night Baha. :)
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1363. Grothar
I know this is 3 hours old and I know somebody probably already posted it, and I know some of you won't like the colors, but I have nothing else to do tonight so be patient!!!

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Reed, I'll check back later to see what ur thinking....

Everybody else, I'm going to try that "go to bed early, check model runs at 1:15 a.m..... maybe it'll work....

G'night to those who won't be up at 1:30.... lol
LOL, I'll be up until the TWO, then I hit the hay.
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Quoting Grothar:


Never!! LOL Just posted a picture of the Globe, I think it is a few billion years old, but still looks good. Wanted to post it before MiamiHurricanes09 got to it.
LMAO! Look at my new colors...gotta say, pink is where its at!


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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, homeless. Looks like a little activity in the tropics! (P.S. bet very few of us remember the Glenn Miller Band, thanks for the video)


You're quite welcome. Thank you for the smiles. :)
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Reed, I'll check back later to see what ur thinking....

Everybody else, I'm going to try that "go to bed early, check model runs at 1:15 a.m..... maybe it'll work....

G'night to those who won't be up at 1:30.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
1358. Grothar
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. See what you started. Link


Hey, homeless. Looks like a little activity in the tropics! (P.S. bet very few of us remember the Glenn Miller Band, thanks for the video)
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I don't understand why the models recurve this. Everything points to more of a westward motion towards se us. With a strong nao, zonal flow, and an above average temperature outlook for 8-14 days for eastern seaboard that would indicate a ridging pattern not troughing pattern.

I don't see what makes the models believe the trough will be that amplified and also be able to dip far enough south.

Hurricane Frances first track as some have been referring to is a good example of how long range forecast models for a recurve can be wrong. This far out you have to look at the data and common sense not the models
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1356. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:


He must have been reminiscing.


Play nice Teddy!!!
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Quoting Grothar:


That model is 4 hours old!!!!!


Lol.
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ought to be getting a invest soon.
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Quoting Grothar:


I know, I like to reminisce!


Lol. See what you started. Link
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1352. Grothar
Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 6 (Frances)



That model is 4 hours old!!!!!
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Does anyone have any speculations on this image, which shows a potent area of Low P climbing along the East Coast? This is the CMC.

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1349. Grothar
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL

Hope I didn't interrupt you!


Never!! LOL Just posted a picture of the Globe, I think it is a few billion years old, but still looks good. Wanted to post it before MiamiHurricanes09 got to it.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That image is from January.


He must have been reminiscing.
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yes it is... my bad lol.. bbl
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1346. srada
Good Evening Everyone..

I was just watching Frank Strait on Accuweather and it looks like exTD5 could regenerate off the NC coast..(the storm that wont quit)

I have to say though, I just dont see the potential disturbance near cape verde recurving out to sea if it develops..all summer the bermuda high has been set up right over us or near us and it dosent look it might break the pattern..with that high blocking the storm, we might be seeing an east coast hit (if it develops)
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Tropical Depression 6 (Frances)

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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
That image is from January.
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1343. Grothar
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL

Hope I didn't interrupt you!
LOL!
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Quoting reedzone:


Hmm, I should look into it, I haven't heard about it yet.
I know u just got back to the blog.... we've had a yellow marker go on the area at 2 p.m.... 20% on formation by Friday afternoon. I'm sure chances will go up by 8 a.m. latest tomorrow, and prolly invest by then too. I'm pretty impressed by the model performance so far, and will be interested to see how well they perform over the next 2 days with the actual cyclogenesis. Then we shall see what we shall see.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting Grothar:


I know, I like to reminisce!


LOL

Hope I didn't interrupt you!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
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Quoting stormhank:
The pattern that going on now in atlantic with the models turning the system near the cape verdes...is it possible this steering could hold thru september?? or is that doubtful? meaning possibly more ridging and more US threats??


Probably the latter.
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1334. Grothar
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Those are from 2 days ago.


I know, I like to reminisce!
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The pattern that going on now in atlantic with the models turning the system near the cape verdes...is it possible this steering could hold thru september?? or is that doubtful? meaning possibly more ridging and more US threats??
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Quoting BahaHurican:
They don't expect TD formation before Saturday, earliest, so I don't think there's that much of a rush.


I think we'll get Tropical Depression #6 Saturday Afternoon
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Probably tomorrow morning.

Ok, thanks!!!! We could really use some model runs on this.
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1330. Gearsts
Quoting Grothar:
What is that?
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Quoting tornadolarkin:
Does anyone have any idea of when the NHC will declare this thing an invest?
They don't expect TD formation before Saturday, earliest, so I don't think there's that much of a rush.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting BahaHurican:
C'mon, Djeff, I actually want to find out what he thinks about the next 24-72. I agree with him about the 144hr thing; don't u?

Reed, take a look at stuff and tell me what u think about this "monsoon trough 2 Twave intereaction" scenario being mooted about...


Hmm, I should look into it, I haven't heard about it yet.
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Quoting Grothar:


Those are from 2 days ago.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.