The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:
I think it's pretty obvious we have a rapidly developing monsoonal depression SSW of the Cape Verde Islands. This should be a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours.

Where it recurves will be determined largely by how far west it moves before starting to gain latitude. This will be one of those storms that, if it passes north of 20N before hitting 60W, will likely recurve. Model runs have shifted back north and the developing pattern looks to be letting a trough slip down under the ridging, so a recurve east of the United States is a good bet at this point, but until the system is solidly formed watch the track over the next 5 days to see if things change.

Homegrown mischief may also be a problem yet again in 3-4 days as another trough-split occurs over the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS 108 hours 500mb shows the split:

Seems like the conditions for low pressure in the gulf may persist for some time. Most likely until there is a release

Seems like an early october type pattern...
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Quoting btwntx08:

????


If you dont like what he says ignore him.

Im sure we can all survive without the highly profession opinion of Jason.
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1625. Levi32
Dang, TPW says it all. This could get classified tomorrow if convection organizes sufficiently. It's ready to go.

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Quoting Levi32:
I think it's pretty obvious we have a rapidly developing monsoonal depression SSW of the Cape Verde Islands. This should be a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours.

Where it recurves will be determined largely by how far west it moves before starting to gain latitude. This will be one of those storms that, if it passes north of 20N before hitting 60W, will likely recurve. Model runs have shifted back north and the developing pattern looks to be letting a trough slip down under the ridging, so a recurve east of the United States is a good bet at this point, but until the system is solidly formed watch the track over the next 5 days to see if things change.

Homegrown mischief may also be a problem yet again in 3-4 days as another trough-split occurs over the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS 108 hours 500mb shows the split:



yeah, and they seem to like LA....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Tazmanian:



that boy is dring me nuts and i even had him on Ignore

drivin me nuts too, but that's a short trip for me. usually don't make it out of my 100 yard driveway.
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Quoting Levi32:


More than that, it is the monsoonal trough :)

This is really forming in a hurry:

Oh, that's pretty interesting.
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1621. JRRP
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1619. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey Levi. hope u r getting school things sorted out....

MIA'canes, obvious Erly flow with the radar view...it's quit for now... maybe I can get some more sleep... no, it's started again... It's ridiculous I can't sleep through a nighttime storm anymore... lol


Hey Baha...ya getting there, slowly.
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Quoting Levi32:


More than that, it is the monsoonal trough :)

This is really forming in a hurry:





i hop the nhc is reads blogs lol
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Hey Levi. hope u r getting school things sorted out....

MIA'canes, obvious Erly flow with the radar view...it's quit for now... maybe I can get some more sleep... no, it's started again... It's ridiculous I can't sleep through a nighttime storm anymore... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
1615. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, it's interacting with the monsoonal trough.


More than that, it is the monsoonal trough :)

This is really forming in a hurry:

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Quoting DestinJeff:
Are we there yet?
no
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Are you PsychicMaria's relative or something?



that boy is dring me nuts and i even had him on Ignore
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Quoting Levi32:
I think it's pretty obvious we have a rapidly developing monsoonal depression SSW of the Cape Verde Islands. This should be a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours.

Where it recurves will be determined largely by how far west it moves before starting to gain latitude. This will be one of those storms that, if it passes north of 20N before hitting 60W, will likely recurve. Model runs have shifted back north and the developing pattern looks to be letting a trough slip down under the ridging, so a recurve east of the United States is a good bet at this point, but until the system is solidly formed watch the track over the next 5 days to see if things change.

Homegrown mischief may also be a problem yet again in 3-4 days as another trough-split occurs over the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS 108 hours 500mb shows the split:

Yup, it's interacting with the monsoonal trough.
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1611. Levi32
I think it's pretty obvious we have a rapidly developing monsoonal depression SSW of the Cape Verde Islands. This should be a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours.

Where it recurves will be determined largely by how far west it moves before starting to gain latitude. This will be one of those storms that, if it passes north of 20N before hitting 60W, will likely recurve. Model runs have shifted back north and the developing pattern looks to be letting a trough slip down under the ridging, so a recurve east of the United States is a good bet at this point, but until the system is solidly formed watch the track over the next 5 days to see if things change.

Homegrown mischief may also be a problem yet again in 3-4 days as another trough-split occurs over the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS 108 hours 500mb shows the split:

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Quoting BahaHurican:


The rain woke me up...... lol
Guess this is blown off from the Yucatan straits....
Here's the radar:

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1609. centex
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
look like a big fish storm to me i will gave it 1,000 % of i fish storm next week.
So that’s 10x 100%, maybe you’re a little too confident or just a baseball fan.
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The rain woke me up...... lol
Guess this is blown off from the Yucatan straits....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
1607. JRRP
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Oh wait, the west winds that Kman was talking about weren't directly associated with PGI31L, but rather a large-scale wind pattern inside the ITCZ.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
i see about two fish storms coming next weekend..
Um dude really?.Fall back and let the real experts explain.Did I go to far?
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The heart of hurricane season occurs from Aug. 20 to Sept. 11,...

He has the heart of the season ending the day after it peaks on the 10th? Perhaps he hasn't seen the chart...
Member Since: August 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
Still think this will recurve into the open atl, looks like the 18z gfs ensembles miss the trough coming off the east coast between hr 192-hr 204 and move nw to near Bermuda before catching the pull from trough #2 at hr 240.

adrian
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Quoting JRRP:


I new the low was there
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7480
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
i see about two fish storms coming next weekend..
Are you PsychicMaria's relative or something?
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1599. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like we may see 95 and 96L

95L yes but 96L i do not think so
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It should be interesting to see how the rains from the CV wave fill in the anomalies. Also, East Africa is above normal already which should perpetuate the formation after this wave.
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Quoting centex:
Thanks for proper correction. I hate when I post wrong facts.



your welcome
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Quoting JRRP:



looks like we may see 95 and 96L
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1594. centex
Quoting Tazmanian:


thats 92E
Thanks for proper correction. I hate when I post wrong facts.
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1593. xcool
Next Atlantic Hurricane Could Form by Early Next Week


The heart of hurricane season is about to begin, and we have a significant tropical system likely to form over the Atlantic through early next week. AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi is still predicting this to be a major impact season for the U.S.

Of the 18 to 21 named storms Bastardi is forecasting, he expects eight of them to impact the U.S. Of those eight, he is predicting five or six to be hurricanes and two of them to be major hurricanes.

While the season has been fairly quiet so far, Bastardi expects a "frenzy of activity the rest of the way."

In fact, the next hurricane of the season could develop by early next week. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verde Islands.

Computer models still show this feature evolving into a significant tropical system as it heads westward across the Atlantic this weekend into the first half of next week. The next name on the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season list is Danielle





Whether this system directly impacts the East Coast of the U.S. is yet to be determined. The computer models have been waffling back and forth between bringing the system onshore over the East Coast at the end of next week and keeping it well offshore over the western Atlantic with no impact to land.

Until the system actually forms, there will remain a great deal of uncertainty in its track. The bottom line is that this system certainly bears watching for people along the East Coast.

People along the Gulf Coast as well as the East Coast will also have to keep their guard up over the coming weeks. The heart of hurricane season occurs from Aug. 20 to Sept. 11, but the official season lasts until Nov. 30.

By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist


Link
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Hmmm I am not sold on Alex being a Cat 2. Winds did get to 105mph but they were gusts. Highest I have seen is 85mph sustained winds which is still a cat 1. Gusts do not determine cats.


huh?


ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALEX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
900 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
...ALEX MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9 PM CDT...0200 UTC
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA...
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG


NNNN


EDIT: I see that issue was already resolved lol sorry.
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1591. JRRP
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0200 UTC JUL 01

Hurricane (al012010)
0200 UTC JUL 01
Storm Location:
24.2 N, 97.7 W
Min Sea Level Pressure:
946 mb; 27.94 in Hg
Maxium Intensity:
95 knots; 109 mph; 176 kph
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Quoting Grothar:


I've never seen you agree 100% with anybody but me! LOL
LOL. I guess there's a "second" for everything... in this case. Lol.
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1587. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree 100%.


I've never seen you agree 100% with anybody but me! LOL
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Quoting centex:
Wow we got 92L in E pacific. Maybe they have opened the barn door.


thats 92E
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1585. xcool



500 mb
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
I think all of the talk about "hyperactive season" is about to play itself out, unfortunately, on our bare you know whats. This life ain't easy and stuff happens.
Night all.
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Link

Here comes the start of the trough for early next week - NAM very good with trough and ridge pattern - 5th run in a row showing this and if the surface (or what may become a cutoff) low deepens further like it is expected to along the front, look for the trough to amplify further as well.
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1582. JRRP
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Strong area of 850mb vort


impressive
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Developing anticyclone

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1580. centex
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah I doubt that the circulation is truely closed, may be on Its way. In my opinion, it still has to work on some stuff before being called a TD, but it's well on its way. I do think that it should be an invest though.
05 went from remnant low to TD and we never had invest, I guess special circumstance and just tagged it with old TD number. It was never explained this tagging process for models.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Well I will call it a night for now. You all have a great evening and I will check in again tomorrow.
Great! Have a good night Kman!
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Quoting kmanislander:
Well I will call it a night for now. You all have a great evening and I will check in again tomorrow.

Me too. Goodnight Kman.
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1577. Grothar
Quoting FLdewey:
I bet Jeff has that graph tattooed near his "invest" to impress the ladies.


YO! LOL
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.