The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting centex:
But next 30 days is most active part of season, so don't get your point.


My point is that we (Texans) have to survive the next month.
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1725. xcool
1009mb low in gom hmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1724. help4u
peak is sept 10 and no model shows anything near US thru sept 5 ,five more days we are past the peak of season with nothing.I think this season may end up as a season all the experts missed on.Six storms at most.
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1723. Levi32
Quoting txsweetpea:
I hope Texas is spared this year , However I am not letting my guard down at all.


Exactly the attitude that everyone should have.
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1721. JRRP
48 hrs
12n 32w

108 hrs
17n 46w
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102 hours:


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1718. centex
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Historically, the chance of a TS/Hurricane hitting Texas go down almost to zero in one month...
But next 30 days is most active part of season, so don't get your point.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
what is going here we have two jason"s this is crazy..
you keep getting better lol
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Quoting Levi32:
Flag/minus the posts that are just trying to get attention, please. Don't quote and make a deal out of them. They will disappear if 10 people minus them.


You think I'm trying to get attention? I honestly think that this season is a bust and will continue to be because of all of the TUTTs.
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I hope Texas is spared this year , However I am not letting my guard down at all.
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1713. xcool
Oh boy, here we go again
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you cant be serious?

never amazes me how ill-advised people can be


I am dead serious. I keep being told: "A big storm is coming tomorrow." And also, "We will have 5 storms by the end of August." Show me the storms!
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1711. Levi32
Flag/minus the posts that are just trying to get attention, please. Don't quote and make a deal out of them. They will disappear if 10 people minus them.
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1710. xcool
txsweetpea .lol
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Quoting xcool:
txsweetpea .be nice


I was!!! LOL
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
what is going here we have two jason"s this is crazy..


LOL
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Almost the end of August with only one hurricane impacting the US. I am starting to think that this season is looking good for us on the Gulf coast.


you cant be serious?

never amazes me how ill-advised people can be
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1705. xcool
txsweetpea .be nice
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Almost the end of August with only one hurricane impacting the US. I am starting to think that this season is looking good for us on the Gulf coast.
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I think Jason is talking to his other self.LOL...
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Quoting ryang:


???????????????????????????????????


ROFL!

Thats pathetic.
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1696. jasoniscoolman2010x 4:01 AM GMT on August 20, 2010

commenting on your own post? really?
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1699. Levi32
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Historically, the chance of a TS/Hurricane hitting Texas go down almost to zero in one month...


A whole darn lot can happen in 6 weeks, before October is upon us. Don't let your guard down.

And, even if Texas gets lucky, that doesn't mean the rest of our coastline will be.
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Already starting to move NW at 87 hours.

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1697. ryang
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
i think you are right jason we are going to have two fish storm by next weekend..u win this time around


???????????????????????????????????
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Quoting Levi32:


There's only one wave with immediate potential for development and it is more likely to recurve than not, but watch it all the same because it hasn't even formed yet and the models have already hopped majorly twice. This season will still likely go down as one with large impact on the US. This isn't an all fish-storm year, unfortunately.


Historically, the chance of a TS/Hurricane hitting Texas go down almost to zero in one month...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Link


LOL I think most of us know what accuweather is!
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1693. Levi32
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Are any of the current waves going to impact the US? Or are they all going to recurve? All will recurve IMHO.


There's only one wave with immediate potential for development and it is more likely to recurve than not, but watch it all the same because it hasn't even formed yet and the models have already hopped majorly twice. This season will still likely go down as one with large impact on the US. This isn't an all fish-storm year, unfortunately.
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Link
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1691. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:


hmmmm ok, looks like it is in the same spot that TD5 was......


Pretty much in the same area yeah, north-central gulf.
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Are any of the current waves going to impact the US? Or are they all going to recurve? All will recurve IMHO.
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Looks like this run will feature a stronger system than the 18z.

Just some early speculation.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting Levi32:


Well...lol the remnants of TD 5 may be hanging around in the Georgia area even 4-5 days from now when this trough-split is taking place, but the GFS does not drag TD 5 back over the gulf this time, but rather develops a separate system under the trough-split.

This is the 850mb vorticity at 120 hours:



hmmmm ok, looks like it is in the same spot that TD5 was......
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1686. JRRP
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48 hours/2 days:

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1684. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Hey Levi, talking of the GOM. Any models out there showing anything? Also, would this be from the XTD5 or something else totally?


Well...lol the remnants of TD 5 may be hanging around in the Georgia area even 4-5 days from now when this trough-split is taking place, but the GFS does not drag TD 5 back over the gulf this time, but rather develops a separate system under the trough-split.

This is the 850mb vorticity at 120 hours:

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42 hours

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Hey Levi, talking of the GOM. Any models out there showing anything? Also, would this be from the XTD5 or something else totally?


No, no development is forecast in the GOM for the next week.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Hey Levi, talking of the GOM. Any models out there showing anything? Also, would this be from the XTD5 or something else totally?


No, no development is forecast in the GOM for the next several days.
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:


Go to Tropical & hurricane, and click hurricane archive and then the year.
Awesome! huge help. Although my GF might disagree. More maps to look at. She hates hurricane season.
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1679. centex
> Ever notice NHC puts AOI much wider than those on this blog. Should I believe area just off coast of Africa same as 400 miles to west? I think we are watching a much smaller area as it moves west. NHC seems to be fudging it and only saying current wave or next.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.