The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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1776. Levi32
Quoting txsweetpea:

Where is the map? I must have missed it. Or are you joking Levi?


Posted by redwagon on the last page:

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Quoting redwagon:
And here's a list of major hurricanes (category-3, -4 and -5) that struck Mexico and the U.S. Gulf Coast in August between 1851 and 2006, historical August tracks.

Stolen from WU years and years ago, from SciGuy and Eric Berger:



Eric Berger? Of the liberal Houston Chronicle?
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Why would I need a hug, because everyone on here thinks that everything going into the GOM is going to be a Cat 5 hitting their hometown?
You seem a little angry over others opinions. Anyhow I thought you were leaving.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


ROFL!

Thats pathetic.
And it gets even more sadder.It's obvious the guy wants attention.
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1765. galvestonhurricane 4:27 AM GMT on August 20, 2010


again you need a serious reality check

go back and actually read the posts and you would see that maybe 1% of the posts on this blog say that. Everyone? hardly

you just want to make yourself feel special by ranting about something that is clearly not true
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Quoting Levi32:


A map showing the probability of a tropical cyclone, passing through any point, going on to hit Texas.

Where is the map? I must have missed it. Or are you joking Levi?
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And here's a list of major hurricanes (category-3, -4 and -5) that struck Mexico and the U.S. Gulf Coast in August between 1851 and 2006, historical August tracks.

Stolen from WU years and years ago, from SciGuy and Eric Berger:

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1767. hcubed
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If you dont like what he says ignore him.

Im sure we can all survive without the highly profession opinion of Jason.


We try to ignore him.

But then we also have to ignore those who quote him.
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1766. centex
Quoting Levi32:


Explain to me why in an active season every single storm is supposed to develop strongly? Every season will have some systems sheared apart.

I think the question was why we think we can predict but in reality can only deliver like you suggested. It creates confusion. When NHC and bloggers are wrong which happens all too frequently we need to understand our limitations. Hard for kids to understand think the question was why we think we can predict but in reality can only deliver like you suggested. It creates confusion. When NHC and bloggers are wrong which happens all too frequently we need to understand our limitations. Hard for kids to understand
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Quoting hulazigzag:
I think you need a hug:) bye


Why would I need a hug, because everyone on here thinks that everything going into the GOM is going to be a Cat 5 hitting their hometown?
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if it hits Bermuda its not a fish storm
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Quoting btwntx08:

td 2 was appoaching land also didnt have shear it just kill it self
Also, the weather in Russian may have had an impact?
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PLEASE ya'll dont think this is a ridiculous question BUT dont the lines over the storm in the models guide the storm? or not?
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
I AM RIGHT LOOK LIKE A BIG FISH STORM i will do the big fish storm dance later i am in a great mood now.
please make a video of that.
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poor Bermuda
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1759. xcool
possible home brew by GFS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1758. Levi32
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


What is that?


A map showing the probability of a tropical cyclone, passing through any point, going on to hit Texas.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Most people on this blog overhype everything. For example, Bonnie is going to be a hurricane, same with Colin, this invest should be a depression, and on and on. I'm out.
I think you need a hug:) bye
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1755. Relix
Seems like our CV wave will recurve. Seems very likely from the models. Of course there's no defined center or anything but there's great agreement once more. At least the Antilles would be safe. Of course... watchful eye! =O!
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144 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting redwagon:


This is the Texas Hebert Lane.




What is that?
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1749. galvestonhurricane 4:21 AM GMT on August 20, 2010

your problem is you only pick out maybe 5% of the posts and then use that to claim that everyone overhypes things

get over yourself and back to reality for once
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Levi- Thanks I am TRYING to learn but there's alot to catch on to. It's hard to know what to research ( as far as what contributes to making a hurricane).
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Most people on this blog overhype everything. For example, Bonnie is going to be a hurricane, same with Colin, this invest should be a depression, and on and on. I'm out.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Historically, the chance of a TS/Hurricane hitting Texas go down almost to zero in one month...


This is the Texas Hebert Lane.


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1746. JRRP
a bit more north on this run
now

18z
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1744. Levi32
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Then explain why TD 2, Bonnie, Colin, TD 5, etc. did not intensify under ideal conditions in the gulf.


Explain to me why in an active season every single storm is supposed to develop strongly? Every season will have some systems sheared apart.

Conditions were not "ideal" in the gulf for TD 5 or Bonnie because of the high over the continental US.
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1743. centex
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


My point is that we (Texans) have to survive the next month.
Ok, some of the worst made landfall in next few weeks.
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1742. Levi32
Quoting txsweetpea:
I researched and found Hurricane george of 1998, and it kind of got my attention. I dont know all of the "ins and outs" of weather... like alot of you but I would like to know if this season(2010) has any of the same makings for a hurricane as the makings hurricane george of 1998 had.


Considering that 1998 is one of our top analog years for this season and that conditions are similar, I would say yes, the potential for storms like that are definitely there.
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A hurricane must be coming to TX soon, we have had a lot of ant piles build up in our yard and are starting to get them in our house.....just kidding of course......not about the ants, the hurricanes. :)
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126 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Levi32:
An abnormal amount of TUTTing means more wind shear. Wind shear has been normal to below normal all year in the tropics.





Then explain why TD 2, Bonnie, Colin, TD 5, etc. did not intensify under ideal conditions in the gulf.
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1737. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:


I may be totally wrong, don't always know how to read these. But to me it looks like it would be going more west than a recurve??


We'll see if it gets farther west than other runs, but it's actually already moving northwest in that image and will likely recurve again on this run without hitting land.
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I researched and found Hurricane george of 1998, and it kind of got my attention. I dont know all of the "ins and outs" of weather... like alot of you but I would like to know if this season(2010) has any of the same makings for a hurricane as the makings hurricane george of 1998 had.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This place is getting crazy.

Im out.
I'm just lurking. Please stay, I'm interested in seeing what the GFS is showing ahead of time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting help4u:
peak is sept 10 and no model shows anything near US thru sept 5 ,five more days we are past the peak of season with nothing.I think this season may end up as a season all the experts missed on.Six storms at most.
might be might not be. aint over till its over. stay vigilant and be prepared never hurts.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
102 hours:




I may be totally wrong, don't always know how to read these. But to me it looks like it would be going more west than a recurve??
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1732. Levi32
An abnormal amount of TUTTing means more wind shear. Wind shear has been normal to below normal all year in the tropics.



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Quoting btwntx08:

???
lack of patience, etc


Lack of patience? You have been saying that since the beginning of June.
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This place is getting crazy.

Im out.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1729. leu2500
Has anyone noticed any hurricane lilies blooming yet? None here in north Al, but they did seem to bloom before the hurricanes last year.
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1728. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.