The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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1877. xcool
txsweetpea .YOU DON'T HAVE TO SAY YOU'RE SORRY . ;)!!!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Too bad he completely misread the entire debate, which was a perfectly healthy one, CycloneVoyage and I were both completely civil. The this guy has to jump in and make a comment. Then when he does comment, he completely misreads my comments


No i did not misread anything.....YOu do the samething every nite to someone.....everynite you try to prove someone is wrong about a post that truly was not a wrong statement. I just pointed it out!
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2am TWO is out, both still yellow
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
Quoting xcool:
txsweetpea .i posting it last night.


Oh sorry about that...did not know
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Quoting docrod:


Talking to oneself perhaps ;>)


Too bad he completely misread the entire debate, which was a perfectly healthy one, CycloneVoyage and I were both completely civil. The this guy has to jump in and make a comment. Then when he does comment, he completely misreads my comments
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
That CV storm is coming to TX.
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1871. xcool
txsweetpea .i posting it last night.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
look how far north that storm is..its going out to sea when its hit 55 west..


Yes you are probably correct. Most storms curve anyway as a CV storm. But, a system that is at or above 15N and gets very strong at all usually does curve out to sea.
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1869. docrod
Quoting TampaSpin:
Someone help me understand this. Someone post something that is a true fact, but, yet someone says its not always true. Then the person that says its not true that it usually is true......WTH is wrong with this picture.....LOL


Talking to oneself perhaps ;>)
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Quoting TampaSpin:
If Hurrincane101 does not get a bann for his actions tonite then the blog Admin. needs to be banned.


LMAO you called me out

thanks for the bait, only thing I am guilty of is taking it. I see how you operate, you love to bait people

maybe you should get the ban and not me
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
Quoting xcool:


cmc 00z home brew too

cv storm

xcool crown weather-tropical discussion really explains the system that is to develop in the gulf this coming weekend very well
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1865. smuldy
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Im on my computer at work. Shsssh, don't tell anyone. It is IE, I have FF at home.
sorry for the ddelay had to open up IE to find it (never use it)
at the top right look for a button "page" click that, then select "zoom" and "zoom out"; also ctrl and - might work
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If Hurrincane101 does not get a bann for his actions tonite then the blog Admin. needs to be banned.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you contradicted yourself in your own comment about what I said

First you said I said that it was not always true; which is what I said. Then you turned around and in the next sentence said that I said it was not true.


I just tried to point out exactly what you was trying your best to do, was to prove nothing.
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1861. xcool


cmc 00z home brew too

cv storm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1858. JLPR2
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I thought I was that example!


ha! Some humor! Thank you!
It's so tense in here.

Also, hey everyone!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


he is an example of what happens when you post while being drunk
I thought I was that example!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


he is an example of what happens when you post while being drunk


Who are you talking about?
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1855. xcool
Hurricanes101 oh
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting TampaSpin:
Someone help me understand this. Someone post something that is a true fact, but, yet someone says its not always true. Then the person that says its not true that it usually is true......WTH is wrong with this picture.....LOL


wow don't be so obvious; it is not always true

gee I am sorry I guess the examples I showed show no bearing as to what I was saying at all

what was I thinking?


Also tell me how I was wrong? I said it is not always true. Last I check not always true and usually the case are the same thing. Go pick on someone else
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
1852. xcool
TampaSpin ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1851. xcool


home brew gulf .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Someone help me understand this. Someone post something that is a true fact, but, yet someone says its not always true. Then the person that says its not true that it usually is true......WTH is wrong with this picture.....LOL
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Quoting smuldy:
if you are using ff just click view>zoom>out
Im on my computer at work. Shsssh, don't tell anyone. It is IE, I have FF at home.
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Nite all, check back tomorrow.
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1843. smuldy
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Anyone on here know how to reduce the screen down on a computer. It is only on this site.

I have to use the scroll bar at the bottom of the screen to read post. They are too wide. Thanks.
if you are using ff just click view>zoom>out
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1842. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Anyone on here know how to reduce the screen down on a computer. It is only on this site.

I have to use the scroll bar at the bottom of the screen to read post. They are too wide. Thanks.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Stronger La Nina years feature a more NE placed and weaker Azores high. This leaves the door open for more troughiness on the east coast.


and yet we have seen El Nino seasons with only CV storms that go out to sea and La Nina seasons with CV storms making it across the Atlantic to the US.

While what you are saying may be true, it certainly is not a rule that applies to all storms
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
1836. smuldy
Quoting btwntx08:
i think the nhc is doing this instead of declaring an invest
In my month+ here I have rarely seen the 2am upgrade % even when many good arguments were made here to point that it was warranted and have not once seen an invest declared. With it still so far away the night owl forecaster will wait til the morning people come in to declare an invest jmo
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


actually that is not necessarily true


Stronger La Nina years feature a more NE placed and weaker Azores high. This leaves the door open for more troughiness on the east coast.
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Post#1830, now that is funny!
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1831. xcool
HMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Tazmanian:
dont look at me am this a bloger lol
Err huh?
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i think we may see red at the next two
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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