The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


Still not buying it though. This thing has been at 10N for at least 48 hours, still is.


The longer it sits there, it may not matter if/how strong an east coast trough is as it will not be far enough to the west/north to feel it.
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1973. scott39
Good morning, AOI--Westward--For now!
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1972. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Those positions start in +60 hours, so they discounted the early part of their model run.




Okay...you're right...I see that now...starts on Sunday....12UTC 22.08.2010 14.6N 33.1W WEAK
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1970. IKE
From the earlier discussion...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N25W...
ABOUT 200 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W
AND 31W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE.
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Quoting StormW:


Boy, is that initialized incorrectly, or is that the wave behind the current one?


Those positions start in +60 hours, so they discounted the early part of their model run.


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1966. Engine2
Good morning Storm - yea thats a tad bit off
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morning
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
morning
2010 hurricane season still a struggle to get going. that being said conditons are getting better day by day for develoment, but not the explosion in tropical activity
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1962. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 100820000000
2010082000
15.4 109.2
17.8 105.5
120
15.5 109.0
200430
1008200421
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 200430
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 109.2E TO 17.8N 105.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 200400Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 109.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210430Z.
//
9310081812 124N1159E 15
9310081818 131N1150E 15
9310081900 138N1139E 20
9310081906 141N1128E 20
9310081912 143N1114E 20
9310081918 147N1101E 20
9310082000 155N1090E 20
NNNN

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1961. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
looks about 2,000 miles east of me in a week.

Oh NO! that means it'll only be about 1800 miles east of me!! The impacts could be devastating! (here on the blog, that is!)


LOL!

GFS also shows a TD/weak TS hitting northern Mexico in a week....similar to the TD that came in around Brownsville. Shows it at 1007 mb's.

Looking good over our area through Sept. 5th on the run.

Oh...TGIF!
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1960. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 100820060000
2010082006
17.6 253.3
20.0 248.9
160
17.9 252.7
200900
1008200851
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 200900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6N 106.7W TO 20.0N 111.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 107.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210900Z.
//
9210081900 158N1029W 25
9210081906 163N1039W 25
9210081912 168N1049W 25
9210081918 173N1059W 25
9210082000 176N1066W 25
9210082006 179N1073W 25
NNNN

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1959. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
temps down to 57.9 now as sun rises getting a little busy
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Quoting aquak9:
79.2º, 96% humidity here in coastal NE Fla. Acoording to our local NWS, we're about to break our longest >90º day streak of heat record.

G'morning WU-Bloggers, lifts cuppa coffee to all points of the globe.

Ike those are too far east to generate my happy wave action.


Maybe the NAM will provide you some happy waves.
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1957. bassis
Morning, 70 deg and beautiful in dover NH
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1956. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico

Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere

Current Northwest Pacific* Tropical Systems
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0430Z

Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0900Z

As of Tue 17 Aug 2010 10:30:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific
92E.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
93W.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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1955. aquak9
looks about 2,000 miles east of me in a week.

Oh NO! that means it'll only be about 1800 miles east of me!! The impacts could be devastating! (here on the blog, that is!)
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UKMET Office


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.6N 33.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2010 14.6N 33.1W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2010 16.0N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2010 16.7N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2010 18.4N 42.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2010 20.2N 45.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2010 22.2N 47.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2010 24.5N 49.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2010 26.6N 50.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



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Morning, Aqua, Ike, everyone. I have both cups of coffee at hand this morning. LOL.
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1952. IKE
I was just figuring that system the GFS spins up/Danielle...looks about 2,000 miles east of me in a week. Just putting things in perspective.
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1951. aquak9
79.2º, 96% humidity here in coastal NE Fla. Acoording to our local NWS, we're about to break our longest >90º day streak of heat record.

G'morning WU-Bloggers, lifts cuppa coffee to all points of the globe.

Ike those are too far east to generate my happy wave action.
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1950. IKE
77.7 here. Summers drag on. High a week from today...91 to 95. Losing almost 2 minutes of sun per day now.

Looking at what the latest GFS shows at 144 hours....

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1949. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
morning 58 degrees this morning coolest morning in a while
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1948. calder
ur in the uk cotillion?
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1947. calder
morning
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Morning.
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Quoting xcool:
bed timed.bye


Night. :)
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1944. xcool
bed timed.bye
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
1943. xcool
homelesswanderer ha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Hmmm...


Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting xcool:
noo invest yet wt&**&


Hang in there xcool. :)
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1940. xcool
noo invest yet wt&**&
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
1937. xcool
ha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Good nite all- gotta get some rest!!!
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Quoting redwagon:
redwagon-I dont understand that last model/map-is it just showing the direction a storm would follow to get into the ...
----------
You just take all the storms that ever hit TX, rewind them back to the Cape Verde (if you're analyzing CV storms, not Campeche or Caribbean), and see where they generated.

This low is currently at ~45% chance of coming to TX, per history.


Okay thanks!!!
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1933. xcool




,ECMWF much slow move
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
1932. xcool


Something to keep an eye on..Western Caribbean
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
1930. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Quoting breald:
And they say women like to nag and cause problems...Geeez.


We do??? :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1928. breald
And they say women like to nag and cause problems...Geeez.
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1927. xcool
op
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.