Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting hurricane23:

Quoting StormW:


Well, right now, we are in a negative NAO (as depicted).

That weakness is not large enough to even lift my pencil north right now, let alone the weak steering past 40W.

IF anyone remembers the system that recently went out to sea, the A/B ridge was more of one center, a little closer to the CATL, stronger (when we were in the positive NAO phase, which in turn, the steering layers depicted a very strong trof/weakness in the ridge which was very pronounced, east of the U.S. east coast). ENTIRELY DIFFERENT from what you see here.

I remember as clear as my nose. And in Colins case it did exactly as the models forecast other than intensity. In Colins case there was almost the same weakness in the ridge only this time it is forecast to be more pronounced. Here is the map for 144 hours. Where is the ridge?? Are you saying the model is totally wrong?

Quoting hurricane23:
Stormw i wanted to reply to a question you posted on the blog yesterday if you dont mind.

Here's your question...

The A/B high and Icelandic low. I'm looking at it in the manner of, if you have a ridge over the U.S., which should be pumping the trof east of it, which will be the one dipping down, the strength of the trof depends on the strength of that ridge. Then east of the trof, you have the A/B high. Look at he shallow layer mean...both centers of the Atlantic ridge are weaker, which correlates to the current NAO state...the trof in the middle is weak. So my question is, and hopefully you can shed some light, is, if the western portion of the A/B high is weak near the east coast, how do we have a stronger trof in place, as in the trof being wedged in between whatever ridge is over the U.S., and then the A/B high?

All the points bolded, generally correlate well together. However, in the modeling world:

A. The framework of the models doesn't always output what we tend to correlate with reality, epecially many days out.

B. The relationships in bold, especially in model world, can easily become weaker, because models inherently must interpolate grid points via adjacent data points, and then try and integrate them over time with their given physics packages. So what is the model to do when it gets data, interpolates them into their gridpoints, and it doesn't "fit" into our preconceived notions of "ridge pumping = deeper trough"?? Well, if it sees a "flatter ridge at initialization, BUT a deeper trough, that's what it is going to depict....and remember, we are talking days and days out. The representation of these features in detail will verify FAR differently than any one model can depict them now. So it's not a matter of a model "mistakenly" doing something that is "nonsense" vs. a previous run.....the model doesn't know it ran before!!!! It is all within the chaotic noise that outputs can be at these time ranges.

adrian

Are the grid points "coarser" the further out the run progresses or is it just a decline in the specificity of the data?

Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Well Central Scotland Wont Get affected it more Like the island of Northern Scotland wil Get 70mph Gusts

south uist got 34mph sustained. Pretty breezy here near glasgow

Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
Does anyone know what wind speeds are forecasted for central Scotland? The Met Office was forecasting for it to go quickly north and not really affect mainland scotland, but I've looked at the recent satellite images and it seems to be moving east. It's getting windy here aswell!

Oooch..aye..yer in for a right nasty blow yarrgghhh.

From UKMO: "Highlands & Eilean Siar:

Severe Gales 1700 Fri 20 0500 Sat 21
South to Southwest winds will increase to severe gale force this evening and tonight with gusts of around 70mph expected. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Scotland for further advice on road conditions."

Quoting StormW:
Quoting hurricane23:


Stormw let be the first to admit that this isn't my specialty.

However, It may also be related to tropical forcing from the westerly wind burst that occurred in the Pacific last week. That transfer of energy to the mid-latitudes will force the subtropical ridge back toward the Southern Plains/Four Corners and allow the trough to deepen over the Eastern U.S. With weak background flow near the Carolinas, it will also allow an upper low to cutoff temporarily. As the ridge shifts back eastward due to tropical WAA over the Southeast, the trough will kick out into the NW Atlantic.


???

What are the chances that te A-B ridge flattens out and becomes essentially one entity, taking 95-L westward into the Carribbean?

Quoting jason2010xxxx:
its still going to be a fish storm.

echo, echo, echo...

Quoting Bayside:
Storm, I sure hope you are wrong. I am very worried about something like an Isabel track. I sure don't want my house underwater! Notice it pulled north probably due to a weak weakness and then set back west before wreaking havoc here in VA, NC, DC, MD. Surge in the Chesapeake Bay was devastating.

Hi, I don't think he is seeing our posts. But I remember Isabel too. It was an odd angle of approach.

Can't believe someone asked storm what he was doing!

G'Morn StormW, I don't know if this has been mentioned yet, but isn't that ex-td05 exactly where you said (multiple times) it would be days ago?
Good call Chief.

Quoting StormW:


That's what we have to wait and see.

Thanks, Storm I appreciate your daily expertise .....

Quoting calder:


south uist got 34mph sustained. Pretty breezy here near glasgow

Yea its Getting more Breezy here in Livingston... i Think the Lorrys on the Forth Road bridge mite not be alloud on the Bridge and its been a While since that last happend

Thanks Storm for the map and nice explanation. So, if we are in and headed more for a negative NAO which would favor a more westward movement and higher threat for landfalls, then why are these storms forecasted to re curve?

Is it because of where the storm is located and looking at the map it will follow those areas meaning re curving?

Is it me or does this sailingallover Guy have a tude with storms opinion..calm down chicken

NEW BLOG.

NEW BLOG 5 min ago

Quoting KanKunKid:


I can't help but to wonder if somewhere in Japan, there is a Wunderblog type tropical weather discussion in Japanese. they're all looking at the west coast of Mexico and writing:
"It's a fish, I tell you!"
"What you saying? This is Pacific! They all fish!"
"No! No. Not this time Sakura1985! I have gut feeling!"
"NO! NO! Look at chart! See? It recurves and hit Hawaii!"
"You can't trust model so far out, I say it come here and knock socks off!"
" You crazy you drink too much saki last night"
" Well you...This comment cut off with samurai sword for being in violation of honor.

Now where I put sword? Too much clutter. Got to simplify life. Clean up mess.

Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Yea its Getting more Breezy here in Livingston... i Think the Lorrys on the Forth Road bridge mite not be alloud on the Bridge and its been a While since that last happend

The centre of the low pressure area keeps moving east towards scotland when it is forecasted to move north...maybe mainland scotland is going to get some very strong winds.

Here is the 72 hour forecast which it has been said is "trustable".
The Ridge is retreating back east and entire east coast is one big area of trof which already exists in the central CONUS. So why the lack of trust in the models?

Had to add here, about the 61 day heatwave in Moscow.

"...The world record for the longest sequence of days above 100°Fahrenheit (or 37.8° on the Celsius scale) is held by Marble Bar in the inland Pilbara district of Western Australia. The temperature, measured under standard exposure conditions, reached or exceeded the century mark every day from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, a total of 160 days..."

CO2 was lower, then.