The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2010

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A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.


Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.

Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".

Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.

Jeff Masters

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2139. aspectre
4:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
2138. RipplinH2O
3:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Howdy all...
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
2137. tulsahurrcane
2:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting sebastianflorida:
They are just models, sometimes they are correct, sometimes not; it is too far out in time, distance, and not developed yet. I'd pay attention maybe every couple of days for now. As of now though, nothing worth watching for hours a day, maybe a 2 minute peak every other day. Your news will let you know if anything might threaten your area in advance. Have a nice day and maybe check back Sunday evening. Three days out if your area is in the cone, I'd advise you to be a bit concerned and start preps at that point. If you start telling people a storm is comming this far out, before it is anything, or is going out to sea, they will laugh cause there is no storm. Do not worry, eventually some area from Georgia to Texas and all points in between will be threatened in 2010, and probably several areas; just waiot and keep a half an eye on thinghs for now.
Uh, I think that was a joke Sebastion...
Member Since: August 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
2136. kshipre1
2:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
thanks storm. good explanation
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
2135. kshipre1
2:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
ok so, if I understand storm correctly, a strong high with practically no weakness in it will cause recurvature and a high with some weakness brings less chance of recurving and greter chance of westward movement of storms?

Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
2134. IKE
2:18 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting hurricanejunky:


JFV would be perfect to complete item #2. Hey, maybe we could take predictions on who will be the one to complete each item on the list. Go Ike!


lol
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2133. hurricanejunky
2:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting IKE:
From last Saturday...

1301. IKE 6:09 AM CDT on August 14, 2010


Looks like a true Cape Verde system by this time next week. All of the models show it.

My prediction...

(1)There will be tons of "west"-casting going on.
(2)A few will say a track to Florida even though it's 4,000 miles away.
(3)Some will say..."aren't you forgetting the islands? They're first and foremost".
(4)Those that like to beat their chests will say...this is what I've been saying would happen. Even though their previous forecasts were wrong.
(5)Some will say....where are the downcasters and season-is-a-bust crowd at now.

........................................


#1....check.


JFV would be perfect to complete item #2. Hey, maybe we could take predictions on who will be the one to complete each item on the list. Go Ike!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
2131. StormPro
2:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting Patrap:


9 Specks,,2 FLounder's, assorted mudcats..and a sunburn.



What about the elusive beer buzz fish?
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
2130. unf97
2:12 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Good morning everyone!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
2129. nrtiwlnvragn
2:10 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11156
2128. Progster
2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
ECMWF has a lock on the development of the Verde system..but its kinda interesting over the GOMEX in the model world at and beyond day 6. As the upper ridge currently just W of FL transits west, it leaves a weakness in the northern gulf in its wake...good onshore flow for the Nrn gulf coast....and -ve thickness anomalies over the area start to appear pretty quickly in most ensemble members by Aug 25th. Apparently Patrap hasn't experienced enough convection yet this year..keep the video cam handy :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
2127. angiest
2:06 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...post 2120


Thank you.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2125. Progster
2:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


West


lol
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
2124. Thaale
2:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


You missed the point of the paper, and what I just posted. I have to respectfully disagree with Dr. Masters on the NAO. IT DOES play a role in steering. What you just mentioed here ( winter systems from October-February. Not August) sets up the "CONDITIONS" for steering storms in the hurricane season. Look at the following, and tell me what you see:



These two seasons were predominately negative NAO patterns....what can you tell me about the Cape Verde systems? Yes some recurves, but how sharp? and U.S. Strikes in general?




Fair enough, Storm, but your argument's not with me. It's with Dr. Masters. I'm just a conduit to his very different opinion.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
2123. Prgal
2:02 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Good morning! Storm, one of our local mets mentioned that there was an upgrade done to the GFS recently and that it was not working properly. What are your thoughts on this?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
2121. weatherguy03
1:59 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Tropical Update Aug. 19th. 2010
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
2119. reedzone
1:58 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Henry Margusity says NOT to believe the models and don't follow them as gods. He says it's too early and that the East Coast should watch it. He also did the math, there will be 24 runs of the models before it is near anywhere. I believe him, too far out to call a USA threat or a Fish storm.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
2118. angiest
1:55 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Storm, you said:


In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

Do you know of anything showing what the NAO was then? It fits in with the "stronger storms go north" mantra. Yeah, that may be preferred, but ultimately you have to look at the environment an individual storm is in to determine whether or not that is true. This is why I always caution people not to let their guards down when it looks like a storm is not coming to them.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2117. Thaale
1:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Regarding NAO, recurvature, and storm tracks, listen to Jeff Masters's radio show Hurricane Haven from last week. He is asked about the NAO and steering and his answer is that he hasn't really looked at the NAO because it is not an important factor for steering, either in the short or long term. He says it's important in the winter, with the implication being that it's not important now.

This matches the conclusions of the NOAA paper StormW has linked to, which refers to the NAO's effects on late fall / winter systems from October-February. Not August.

http://audio-ecast.wunderground.com/wubroadcast/Hurricane_Haven_08_10_10.mp3

Start at the 14:15 mark for Dr. Masters's take on NAO.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
2116. angiest
1:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Now see, you got it!


:D
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2115. nola70119
1:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Still a yellow hatch on the NHC site, they moved it slightly south......looks to be a non-threat to the US, other than that, have a productive and healthy thursday......
Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1565
2114. DaytonaBeachWatcher
1:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


What I was referring to was the part of the positive NAO moving the system further west. Folks kind of get the negative and positive phases mixed up. Based on that research article, I have a tendency to look at the NAO in this way: I see folks already talking about the infamous "east coast trof" and re-curvature.

In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

And folks still confuse the weaker high with "a weakness"...not the same thing. Even though the ridging is weaker, IT'S STILL ridging. And if you have a weaker break in the ridge, it's gonna be a little harder to achieve recurvature.


Thats the perfect example of why people need to realize that what makes a year active, more active, less active is because of a slew of different variables not just one thing. Sea surface temps, sal, nao, mjo, trades, shear, troughs...the list goes on. No one thing is gonna change the pattern completely one way or another.
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
2112. reedzone
1:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Westcasting always cracked me up anyway.

What is the predominate flow on the southern periphery of a ridge?


West
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
2111. reedzone
1:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


What I was referring to was the part of the positive NAO moving the system further west. Folks kind of get the negative and positive phases mixed up. Based on that research article, I have a tendency to look at the NAO in this way: I see folks already talking about the infamous "east coast trof" and re-curvature.

In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

And folks still confuse the weaker high with "a weakness"...not the same thing. Even though the ridging is weaker, IT'S STILL ridging. And if you have a weaker break in the ridge, it's gonna be a little harder to achieve recurvature.


Ohh I see, that's a great explanation StormW, thanks.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
2110. angiest
1:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


What I was referring to was the part of the positive NAO moving the system further west. Folks kind of get the negative and positive phases mixed up. Based on that research article, I have a tendency to look at the NAO in this way: I see folks already talking about the infamous "east coast trof" and re-curvature.

In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have s stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

And folks still confuse the weaker high with "a weakness"...not the same thing. Even though the ridging is weaker, IT'S STILL ridging. And if you have a weaker break in the ridge, it's gonna be a little harder to achieve recurvature.


This is what I was asking about yesterday but didn't have time to elaborate. When the high is stronger, that is, the central pressure is higher, the high overall seems more compact, which gives a path for storms to follow north. When the high is weaker, it spreads out more, removing that path, or at least moving it further west.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2107. reedzone
1:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting spartankicker:


It's not west-casting, it's looking at the possibility the the ridge will move/strengthen further west than expected. It doesn't hurt to look at all the possibilities this far out, because absolutely nothing can be ruled out yet. For all we know, something unforseen might happen and kill this wave off and nothing happens.


Models should start shifting back and forth until we actually have a system to track. The out to sea scenario is not certain.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
2106. AllBoardedUp
1:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
I remember at the very beginning of the season some people on here (maybe Storm being one of them) stated that because of the atmospheric conditions, Texas was going to be in the bull's eye, so to speak. It started out that way with the first two storms. My question is, what changed, if anything, and are the chance of a Texas hit less now? Sure not complaining if the chances are less, just curious.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
2104. spartankicker
1:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting IKE:
From last Saturday...

1301. IKE 6:09 AM CDT on August 14, 2010


Looks like a true Cape Verde system by this time next week. All of the models show it.

My prediction...

(1)There will be tons of "west"-casting going on.
(2)A few will say a track to Florida even though it's 4,000 miles away.
(3)Some will say..."aren't you forgetting the islands? They're first and foremost".
(4)Those that like to beat their chests will say...this is what I've been saying would happen. Even though their previous forecasts were wrong.
(5)Some will say....where are the downcasters and season-is-a-bust crowd at now.

........................................


#1....check.


It's not west-casting, it's looking at the possibility the the ridge will move/strengthen further west than expected. It doesn't hurt to look at all the possibilities this far out, because absolutely nothing can be ruled out yet. For all we know, something unforseen might happen and kill this wave off and nothing happens.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
2103. cyclonekid
1:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:


Well, let's just say there is a strong chance that we'll get our most interesting storm just as I start school. =|

As for landfalls, I am particularly concerned for the East and Gulf Coasts, especially during the next few weeks.
I start next Wednesday. So things will JUST be starting to ramp up.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
2102. angiest
1:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
The downtown one is the original, correct? The one I went to was in League City.


I don't know if it is the original, but it spans a few blocks along Louisiana Street.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2101. nyhurricaneboy
1:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting cyclonekid:
XD. I think I've only been here a year and a half. I think. So you joined before I did. =)

And I'm really getting bored with this season. We haven't had much happen except a hurricane, which I will give credit for...it was quite interesting, a tropical storm which hit FL and then dissipated thereafter, and then had a tropical storm, that was kind of interesting...being that it regenerated, and two tropical depressions. I guess because they've been spaced out, I've become bored. But, things should get interesting as we enter the last part of August and the month of September.

Does anyone know when the next big pulse of MJO is coming?


Well, let's just say there is a strong chance that we'll get our most interesting storm just as I start school. =|

As for landfalls, I am particularly concerned for the East and Gulf Coasts, especially during the next few weeks.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 104 Comments: 503
2100. AllBoardedUp
1:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting angiest:


Have yet to go to the downtown/midtown location, despite commuting past it for a few years.

Now we do have a good sized one in Katy, plus a "neighborhood" Specs as well.
The downtown one is the original, correct? The one I went to was in League City.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
2099. cyclonekid
1:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Thanks Storm.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
2098. kshipre1
1:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Ok, I am sorry to ask this again but since I am still learning about these tropical terminologies, does a negative NAO mean greater probability of landfall and positive means more chances or re curvature? Did I have this the other way around?

Sorry. I am not as advanced as most people in this chat room and would like to understand the synopsis. What relationship does this have with the number of troughs slowing down in comparison to the strong High in the atlantic? Can you please answer this storm? Thanks
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
2097. reedzone
1:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Excerpt from the following:

Forecasting U.S. Hurricanes 6 Months in Advance

The relationship between October-January NAO and hurricane tracks is more complex.
A weak fall/winter NAO is associated with weaker middle latitude weather systems (and thus less precipitation) over North America and Europe. The relatively dry fall/winter season continues into spring and the dry conditions subsequently lead to a tendency for greater middle tropospheric ridging during the summer and fall. Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east, is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts. Support for this hypothesis comes from the positive correlation between monthly precipitation totals from January through May at stations in a region extending from Ohio to Massachusetts and fall/winter
NAO values. In other words, weak fall/winter NAO conditions lead to less precipitation, more
ridging, less recurvature, and a higher probability of landfall.


I'm just saying that models are useless when the storm hasn't even formed. I'm not really "west" casting it, but the models should trend back and forth from west to east until it latches on to a system. I actually laughed when it had the storm hit me a few days ago at 276 hours.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
2096. PensacolaDoug
1:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2010



Lookin' Good!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
2095. angiest
1:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I finally visited Spec's Liquor for the first time a few weeks ago after all these years.


Have yet to go to the downtown/midtown location, despite commuting past it for a few years.

Now we do have a good sized one in Katy, plus a "neighborhood" Specs as well.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2094. sporteguy03
1:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
The Barometer Bob Show for August 19, 2010!

Listen to the show as I discuss the tropics and current weather across the Nation. As well as Weather News from around the world.
I will be talking what the Tropics have in store for us. My guest will be Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.
If you would like to ask a question during the show, join us in Storm Chat at Hurricane Hollow Weather. Please use a nickname when you join.

The show starts at 8pm/et and you can listen live at WRBN.Net.

Interesting show tonight!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
2092. AllBoardedUp
1:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting angiest:


Specs? Specs are not so rare here:

Link
I finally visited Spec's Liquor for the first time a few weeks ago after all these years.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
2091. PensacolaDoug
1:33 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
The Blue Angels just took off.

Boy are they loud!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
2090. angiest
1:33 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:


Well, let's be thankful that nobody is hurt. Hopefully, it will stay that way.


The second largely unknown flood in TN this year.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2089. AllBoardedUp
1:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
wow!!!!!
I guess I got a dirty mind, but the shape of that wave just don't look right.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.