The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2010

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A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.


Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.

Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".

Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.

Jeff Masters

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1789. xcool
Ever been to a parade??? You can stand on the street corner and hear the band before you see them if they are coming around the corner. Now perhaps I am not hearing the band now and only am being delusional, but here ARE TWO THINGS THAT OLD-TIME TROPICAL FORECASTERS LOOK FOR when there is about to be a ramp-up of activity.

1) The ITCZ comes to life and 2) The wave train track is farther north.

It is that way.

We have one wave out near 45 where the turning is mainly north of 15. The second wave (and this is something that the models may be losing a bit because of what is coming behind) is a large envelope of low pressure near 20 north and 30 west. This looks a lot like what Dennis (1999) and Elena (1985), for instance, looked like...big strato cu systems, not a lick of convection till west of 50 west. This will be in the Bahamas a week from today.

Then, of course, what is coming off Africa is being jumped on by the models. The new GFS recurves it, but has another storm in the Bahamas already by the Labor Day weekend.

But one only need look at the model means and see where this is going to understand why I hear music playing. Perhaps 10 days from now we can laugh at me being delusional, that nothing is showing up. Until then, just because one can't see something, doesn't mean it is not there. The wave track farther north and the enhancement of the ITCZ means the tropics are more active and, in some cases, this is the telltale sign of a burst coming (two to three storms in a 10-day stretch). I won't go that far yet.. saying I hear a symphony, but after watching storms since I was a kid, I can tell you that when I have seen this before, it means there is more activity on the way.


Another interesting factor.. its not dry in many places this summer. This has been a warm, wet summer in much of the nation, yes there are scattered pockets of dry, but its been much more like 05 and 95, big hurricane total years. In the seasonal update, which will come on line tomorrow morning ( I was hoping I would have the moveable type ready to show you the examples, but the long ranger video tomorrow will take care of that) I show the problem, the abnormally low pressures so far across north America distorting the upward motion pattern. In the "duel" I had out on the plains with gov forecast, reffed by the Wichita Eagle, I had a warm, summer, but precip like 2005 mentioned, as opposed to the non summer that was the idea from other sources. Both agreed on wet, but the trick was that this year we were set for wet.. and warm in most places like 2005. But there was a pocket of cool. The 2005 summer was cool out there, but it was only a "pocket" and this year that was forecasted to be out in west Texas, where it is. But in the plains unlike hot summers like 88, there was no widespread drought this year. Warm and wet usually means once the normal seasonal cooling starts, the tropics come to life. Anyway one has to look behind the curtain to see whats behind it, and I guess we will know over the next week to 10 days if I was overplaying all this.

I am fascinated with TD 5. It's like a train wreck -- I can't turn away. Humor me here... there is over a foot of rain with it now.

It is strange how things work...this thing has been around for how long? Imagine if it had been over the water the past 36 hours given how well it is performing over land.

Ciao for now ****

by joe b
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1786. xcool
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Quoting smuldy:
it's relatively early here in miami beach with our stores that don't open until noon and our bars that close at 5am


This is my last night to work this week up here in NW Florida....throwing a party tonight for a few close friends and I think we normally close out at 5 am.
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ok
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1782. xcool
hmm
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. btwntx08

y such anger, im just stating facts is all!! it doesn't take rocket nor meteorological science to look at a satellite and see nothing is coming to the east coast/gom within the next 2 weeks! we will be almost at peak season by then with only one more names stormed that will probably be another dud anyway!
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1780. smuldy
Quoting traumaboyy:
Good night evening shift.....good morning vampire shift!!
it's relatively early here in miami beach with our stores that don't open until noon and our bars that close at 5am
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1778. centex
Quoting hulazigzag:
people actually post 300 hour models. beyond grasping for anything.
I know it's been astronomical. There are some who are deemed experts who have egged them on. Even JM mentioned long range which only validated these loooooong range forecast. While talking about JM, where is the dry air in western carib?
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1777. xcool


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For what is worth the ECMWF Ensembles is way to the south of the operational ECMWF.



Never the less it a looooooong way out so plenty of time to watch it.
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1775. xcool
lmao crazy people ouuttt
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Good night evening shift.....good morning vampire shift!!
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oh calm down everybody, get off your models and just look at the satelittes, nothing is going to happen in the next 3 days, to much dry air, and the TUTT is still in western atl! It needs to get outa here! im tired of it. BE GONE!!!!
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1771. xcool
we hope
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1768. xcool
damm people leave
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
Well next week shall be interesting to say the least. I have to get to bed. Thanks for the good conversation KoritheMan. You all have a good night!


Good night! I'm out as well.
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Well next week shall be interesting to say the least. I have to get to bed. Thanks for the good conversation KoritheMan. You all have a good night!
Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 479
Quoting btwntx08:

agreed and for the track still uncertain


Right.
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Quoting centex:
You guys/gals must be really bored to be commiting on +120 hour models. I will repeat I've been on this blog for 5 years and never seen so much crazy long range model analyis. Maybe we should give award for longest shot. Looks beyond an NBA 3 pointer, more like beyond mid court and off the backboard.


lol.....well the models have been so accurate this year...lol....I mean what you gonna do..last night we was blowing down skyscrapers in NY...tonight it sinks the USS North Carolina..
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1762. xcool
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Quoting WeatherMSK:


Okay i got ya. NAO would fall into the category of what an example of synoptic scale pattern would be?


Yeah.
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Quoting centex:
You guys/gals must be really bored to be commiting on +120 hour models. I will repeat I've been on this blog for 5 years and never seen so much crazy long range model analyis. Maybe we should give award for longest shot. Looks beyond an NBA 3 pointer, more like beyond mid court and off the backboard.
people actually post 300+ hour models. beyond grasping for anything.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not global, but the NAO definitely applies greatly to our hemisphere.


Okay i got ya. NAO would fall into the category of what an example of synoptic scale pattern would be?
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1758. xcool
lol
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Good KM maybe they will get a depression.


lol, we'll see more than a "depression". The EATL wave is likely to be our second hurricane, and it has a great shot to become the first major, as well.
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Quoting WeatherMSK:


And that would be more of a global pattern analysis?


Not global, but the NAO definitely applies greatly to our hemisphere.
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1754. will45
Well i wasnt bored at all i enjoyed watching it track
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Good KM maybe they will get a depression.
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1751. centex
You guys/gals must be really bored to be commiting on +120 hour models. I will repeat I've been on this blog for 5 years and never seen so much crazy long range model analyis. Maybe we should give award for longest shot. Looks beyond an NBA 3 pointer, more like beyond mid court and off the backboard.
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Quoting thewindman:
YAAAWWWNNNN still NOTHING. Counting down till end of August and still only 1 Hurricane. Wow were the experts wrong. Well at least I wasn't


Lack of patience, etc.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Does this look
like a positive
enviroment


In the EATL, yes.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The ECMWF still forecasts a negative NAO, so we'll see. It's always difficult to make accurate predictions with such obvious discrepancies in the respective forecasts of the models.

That's when one is forced to analyze the synoptic scale pattern, to see if it compliments a particular forecast.


And that would be more of a global pattern analysis?
Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 479
Quoting thewindman:
YAAAWWWNNNN still NOTHING. Counting down till end of August and still only 1 Hurricane. Wow were the experts wrong. Well at least I wasn't


seriously!!! Amen brotha!! BOOORRRRIIINNNG!
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YAAAWWWNNNN still NOTHING. Counting down till end of August and still only 1 Hurricane. Wow were the experts wrong. Well at least I wasn't
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Does this look
like a positive
enviroment
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
I have a feeling the GFS is over amplifying the troughs coming through at the end of the month. Still not sold completely on the out to sea solution. I think development is imminent tho.


The ECMWF still forecasts a negative NAO, so we'll see. It's always difficult to make accurate predictions with such obvious discrepancies in the respective forecasts of the models.

That's when one is forced to analyze the synoptic scale pattern, to see if it compliments a particular forecast.
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1739. help4u
00z run on thursday 8/19
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.