The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2010

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A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.


Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.

Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".

Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
G'Morning WUnderland.

Last Novembers USA/Cuban Hurricane Conference,New Orleans.
Morning my old timer friend, and all others.
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looks like models r turning the possible storm north before it reaches the islands any thoughts on possibilties
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Well, Pat - Jimi will sure wake you up on the way, LOL! (bobbing and weaving in the computer chair as I type!)
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1982. Patrap
1979. CoopsWife


Leaving now to take da Boy to Jesuit High..


Crosstown Traffic ?
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Oh no Storm lol.

Looking forward to your update. :)
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1980. Patrap
Morn' edf..
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Morning, Pat - cool and damp here this morning (well, sort of cool - 76F)

How'd the first week of school go?
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Good morning Senior Chief.... Ike, Pat.. Water pup..
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1977. NSB207
Has the heat wave and subsequent suppression of the right conditions for cyclone development in the Atlantic been recognized in the past for attributing to low cyclone development?

If not, will this be one of the many considerations for future cyclone development?
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1974. Patrap
Quoting StormW:


Pat,
those LSU products are great stuff!


Yup..they do a cool job all year Long as well.

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8 am TWO out.. still no mention of the African AOI.
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Hello, I think for the rest of August, in the Atlantic may have about 2 or 3 tropical storms also may have one or two hurricanes, I think one of them can be a major hurricane.

Therefore, in this month of August we can finish in four and three tropical storms, and 1 or 2 hurricane, also as I said before one of them can be a major hurricane.

I think it's a reasonable prediction and very realistic.

I make a personal question, regarding the activity of the Atlantic for the month of September:

How many tropical storms can occur in the month of September? And how many of them can be hurricanes? And how many of them can be major hurricanes?

Postscript: This is my first post I write in this blog, and for several years I'm reading, because your opinions in general seem very interesting, plus there are very skilled, I hope to learn much from these people.

Incidentally, the reason why I have given this nickname is this:

<>img src="http://[URL=http://img46.imageshack.us/i/huracanvince.gif/][IMG]h ttp://img46.imageshack.us/img46/9092/huracanvince.gif[/IMG][/URL]" width="[URL=http://img46.imageshack.us/i/huracanvince.gif/][IMG]h ttp://img46.imageshack.us/img46/9092/huracanvince.gif[/IMG][/URL]" height="[URL=http://img46.imageshack.us/i/huracanvince.gif/][IMG]h ttp://img46.imageshack.us/img46/9092/huracanvince.gif[/IMG][/URL]" alt="" />

By the way: How to put the images on this blog?

Greetings to all from Spain.
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1969. Patrap
Caribbean Large Scale IR Image
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1968. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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Quoting StormW:



Good morning Storm ..If you get a chance read the blog I posted this morning. My first one lol
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1962. Hhunter
gmorning storm..looks like we are getting consolidation a little further south on cape verde wave...hmmm..interesting track implications i think
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1959. Patrap
G'Morning WUnderland.

Last Novembers USA/Cuban Hurricane Conference,New Orleans.
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00Z Nogaps shows westward motion resuming at 180h and along 20N for the CV system
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Quoting WxLogic:


Are you less than half a mile from that WX station?

It would have been nice if the Cayman Islands had a radar, but I wouldn't be surprised that like in FL and the tropics... downpours tend to be very localized so you might think is raining hard at the WX station site but it might just be in your area and such. Check the history of rain rate (if available) for that WX Station and that should give you a clue if it was heavier or lighter earlier in the period.

There's also that possibility that the Rain gauge is being obstructed by debris. My .50 cents... jeje.
Thankfully the government here has just signed a contract for a doppler radar. It will be great once they get it in place but I don't know when that will be. Looks like we are in for a long day of heavy rain.
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Ike it's just that when a weather problem comes a long StormW must analyze it. Whip it good StormW, Devo Style.
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I reckon that goes along with this WU forecast for VaBch, Ike.

Today
Cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms with a slight chance of showers early this morning...then showers likely with scattered thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming northeast this afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.
» ZIP Code Detail

Tonight
Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. East winds around 5 mph...becoming north after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
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1952. WxLogic
Quoting StormW:


Quite a bit of bridging going on...

Hopefully it'll keep the SAL to the south:



Not to fond of milky skies...
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Does
Quoting StormW:
QuotiStormW:


Quoting StormW:


Looking at that looks like 00z run is correct?
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Morning, Storm, Ike, everyone. Waves bye to Aqua as she heads off to work...
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1949. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHARP UPR TRF DEVELOPING
ALONG THE E CST SUN AND MON AS SRT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE
UPR RDG TO THE W. AS THE UPR TRF DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER REGION
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON. AS THE UPR TRF SLIDES E AND
SFC FRONT PUSHES S OF AREA PRECIP SHLD END OR BECOME ISOLD TUE
INTO WED. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 90 SUNDAY WITH MAINLY 80S REST OF
PERIOD PER LOWER HGTS AND DEVELOPING N WINDS.

...........................................

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010



LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A STRONG TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS INDUCES HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER LOW
TO AMBLE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE LATER PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S OVER
THE EASTERN SHORE...TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
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1948. WxLogic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't think that is it. It has been raining extremely hard.


Are you less than half a mile from that WX station?

It would have been nice if the Cayman Islands had a radar, but I wouldn't be surprised that like in FL and the tropics... downpours tend to be very localized so you might think is raining hard at the WX station site but it might just be in your area and such. Check the history of rain rate (if available) for that WX Station and that should give you a clue if it was heavier or lighter earlier in the period.

There's also that possibility that the Rain gauge is being obstructed by debris. My .50 cents... jeje.
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Link I did my first blog this morning, please go read it and post comments,, its nothing fancy, Thanks!!
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1946. IKE
Quoting StormW:


IKE,
The model didn't really "prove" you wrong, it may be ya just missed a couple things, as I do sometimes, when analyzing this puppy.

Good morning to ya BTW!


I didn't really do any analyzing, like you do. Just looked at the clouds and which direction they were moving.

It's all good.

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Quoting WxLogic:


Well... it will depend on the intensity of the rain. Yes, it could be raining for 1HR so far but the intensity might not be enough to warrant higher values at the location of that WX Station.
I don't think that is it. It has been raining extremely hard.
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1943. WxLogic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


I know this is not right for the rain since it has been pouring for at least an hour.


Well... it will depend on the intensity of the rain. Yes, it could be raining for 1HR so far but the intensity might not be enough to warrant higher values at the location of that WX Station.
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1941. IKE
System is starting up SW of the Cape Verdes, just like the GFS was saying yesterday, proving me wrong. Models are of use. This one looks like Danielle in the making, but it may not make it to 60W, according to the GFS and ECMWF, right now, before heading to the north ATL....

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Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...
Good morning.
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1939. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.