The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2010

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A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.


Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.

Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".

Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Thaale:
Just NE of PR at 384 hrs, plus some sort of land cane over Colombia.


Oh yes, and Good Afternoon! :)

That's another storm, behing the CV storm.
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Quoting WeatherMSK:


So if the 12Z GFS showed landfall would you have been wrong? Way to early to declare that Mr. Fishman


+1
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This is not recurving before 70W.
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Great Video Blog as usual today Levi!
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Yes but over the past 5 days it has leaned more towards an earlier turn northward.


It showed an East Coast storm 12 Hours Before, now it shows a fish storm. 12 hours later it's going to show a Gulf Storm landfall. With the GFS at 12 days out, you can't trust the details. Not to mention, you usually can't trust it 5 daus out....
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Just NE of PR at 384 hrs, plus some sort of land cane over Colombia.
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Quoting IKE:


My drivers license...my social security card...a debit card....a Winn Dixie card...a Firestone card..and no cash. I don't carry money.

Not good practice to carry SS card anymore. If you lose your wallet you may lose your identity!
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
Well looks like the GFS is alot further east now. Still no garantee on fish storm that some say. I need to see consistency.


Exactly! What is consistent is the development of a major hurricane with the potential to threaten the East Coast (as well as the northern Lesser Antilles, clip the Greater Antilles, and possibly Bermuda). Development of a second significant storm is becoming more consistent as well.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
I WAS RIGHT ITS GOING TO BE A FISH STORM NOW


So if the 12Z GFS showed landfall would you have been wrong? Way to early to declare that Mr. Fishman
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Quoting StormPro:

I'm with you! I tried to post an avatar and can't get that right...LOL I will just stick to absorbing info


I'm in the same crowd. I did finally figure out the avatar and was able to post one pic before.

Good day!
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Off to work, landscaping duty calls, new blog out tonight.
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Quoting IKE:


Good point...hadn't thought about that.


I was a lurker and now posting more. Last few picture posts have failed. What am I doing wrong? (to prove the previous point) LOL
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324. IKE
Quoting YourCommonSense:


Let me guess, your a SunPass costumer?


Nope...I stay north of the bay.

Raining here today...78.8 outside.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting scottsvb:
You kids will never learn to Never look past 120hrs these runs will always change after 72hrs out and especially after 120hrs out. Its not even worth looking at cause it will change 90% of the time after 120hrs to the next run.
Which is it? Always, or 90%?
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Quoting BLee2333:


LOL!! That would be me.

I tried a couple of times, but haven't bothered folks with questions like that. (I would rather just post a link than look ignorant.)

I'm here to learn weather, not blogging techniques! :)

I'm with you! I tried to post an avatar and can't get that right...LOL I will just stick to absorbing info
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
12z run, 18z day 3:



06z run, 18z day 3:

here comes trouble.
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Well looks like the GFS is alot further east now. Still no garantee on fish storm that some say. I need to see consistency.
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314. IKE
Quoting YourCommonSense:


What's in your wallet?


My drivers license...my social security card...a debit card....a Winn Dixie card...a Firestone card..and no cash. I don't carry money.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting hcubed:


He's new here, and already knows how to post pictures.

Usually takes the newbies a few tries, and multiple questions...


LOL!! That would be me.

I tried a couple of times, but haven't bothered folks with questions like that. (I would rather just post a link than look ignorant.)

I'm here to learn weather, not blogging techniques! :)
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GFS track looks like Bill 2009.
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308. IKE
Quoting scottsvb:
You kids will never learn to Never look past 120hrs these runs will always change after 72hrs out and especially after 120hrs out. Its not even worth looking at cause it will change 90% of the time after 120hrs to the next run.


What else do you want us to look at?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
You kids will never learn to Never look past 120hrs these runs will always change after 72hrs out and especially after 120hrs out. Its not even worth looking at cause it will change 90% of the time after 120hrs to the next run.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


System in GOM...when?


At 114-168 hours.
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304. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:


..... and knows where to get them.


Good point too. He/she is an oldie, but goodie.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 18th, with Video
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GFS isn't quite sure when it wants to develop a second CV system...the time frame on that consistently changes.
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Quoting IKE:


Good point...hadn't thought about that.


..... and knows where to get them.
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298. IKE
With this upper air pattern @ 174 hours...it's probably headed to fish-land...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:


Sorry about that. I didn't want to mess up my thoughts while it was all coming out at once so I just wrote it up like that. I will try and do a better job of breaking it up.


Nah, it was a nice job. As others have said, those that don't want to read it are free to skip over it. (Having said that, however; I'd like to suggest adding a paragraph break or two. Or three. Or six...)
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216 hours.

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
The latest GFS run develops a system in the Gulf. It also seems to say that we could have our second hurricane of the season by Sunday.


System in GOM...when?
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This is what I like to see - outside the Box thinking. 180 hrs:
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293. IKE
Quoting hcubed:


He's new here, and already knows how to post pictures.

Usually takes the newbies a few tries, and multiple questions...


Good point...hadn't thought about that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Jeff9641:
Not liking the exiting trough on day 7 of the GFS. Trough also doesn't appear to be as pronounced on this run.


No the trough appears stronger to me, definitely seems to be pulling the system more than previously.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Not good for PR and the Islands. Also a system in the gulf just off FL's west coast.

Probably xTD5 again - it may hang around till December
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GFS inconsistent on where it wants take the storm.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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