TD 20 finally makes up its mind

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:13 PM GMT on October 01, 2005

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Tropical Depression 20
The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea continues with its daily cycle of ups and downs, and finally hit enough of an "up" today to be classified as Tropical Depression 20. The amount of deep convection has increased to the highest level that we've seen yet, and now covers most of the western Caribbean Sea. An upper level outflow channel has opened to the north, and one can see high cirrus clouds streaming out to the north from the center of the depression. A few spiral bands have formed, and surface pressures continue to fall. The center of the depression is near buoy 42056 about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to investigate the system at 2 pm EDT afternoon.

The system is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula today and Sunday, so probably will not have time to strengthen into a tropical storm before then. Wind shear over the system is unchanged at 5 - 10 knots today, but after crossing the Yucatan, the shear is forecast to drop below 5 knots, and the system will have 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf. I expect landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, or perhaps a strong tropical storm, on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday.

Hurricane Otis threatening Baja and Arizona
Hurricane Otis reached its peak intensity early this morning--a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph. Otis is expected to very slowly creep northwestward over cooler waters the next two days, and gradually weaken. By the time it takes a more northerly track and crosses the Baja Peninsula on Monday, Otis will probably be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outwards only 15 miles from Otis's center, so only a small portion of the coast will receive wind damage. Heavy rains of five inches or more will be the main problems with Otis, potentially triggering serious flash flooding in the desert mountains of Mexico--and by Tuesday, in Arizona.


Figure 2. Hurricane Otis.

TD 19
Tropical Depression 19 is far out over the Atlantic Ocean, about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. The environment for strengthening is fair, and we will probably see this system become a tropical storm tonight. A hurricane seems unlikely, as this system is expected to move northwest or northward for the next five days into a region of increasing wind shear. It will be interesting to see if this storm or TD 20 wins the race to become Stan--loser gets the name Tammy.

Southeast U.S.
The global computer models are no longer forecasting tropical storm development near the Bahama Islands on Monday or Tuesday. Instead, they indicate that the favored genesis region may be the central or western Caribbean.

Hawaii
Flood watches are posted for all of the Hawaiian Islands as the moisture from Tropical Depression Kenneth moves over today. As yet, no heavy rains have impacted the islands.

Taiwan and China
Typhoon Langwang, a small but intense typhoon with 140 mph sustained winds, is headed towards a landfall on Taiwan Sunday. The upper-level outflow from the typhoon has degraded today, but there is no apparent wind shear affecting it, so landfall as a Category 3 or 4 storm is likely. Longwang is expected to weaken to a Category 1 storm after passage over the 10000 foot high mountains of Taiwan and continue on to strike mainland China on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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155. 2xtreme4u
9:19 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
marric...go to the top of the left navigation bar on this page and look under "page prefs", there will be an option to "select time zone". Click the link and scroll to your time zone and click "set my timezone" below the scroll box. Your timezone should be set then.
154. marric77
8:51 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
I am trying to set my time zone and it does not change it shows GMT. How do I get the blogs to show my central time zone?
Member Since: October 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
153. 2xtreme4u
8:24 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Jed I am very well aware of the fact that the LBAR is an old model and that it provides poor guidance. I made the comparison because I feel the GFS has been performing poorly recently, although earlier in the season it was perfoming pretty well.

On to the new post.

152. Carbo04
8:24 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Yea, you guys are due sadly.
150. code1
8:19 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Dr. Master's has a new post.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
149. 8888888889gg
8:19 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
new weather blog out for all of you from DR jeff
148. Carbo04
8:16 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
It might be rare because GA is kind of tucked in there, but you're right. You're going to get it at some point, and it being soon would not suprise me.
146. Carbo04
8:09 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Georgia.. Now that is one place that is super overdue for a Cat 3/4 storm.
145. olefosse
8:08 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Boy, the more I look at the surrounding conditions, present estimated center of TD20, and its direction of motion in the last series of satellite pictures, it seems almost obvious that it will end up in the red hot waters of the Bay of Campeche after crossing Yucatan. He will have 1st class conditions there for strengthening a lot - really quickly. If the prediction of holding the act together while passing over land holds true, that is.
We'll see on Sunday, I guess.
144. Carbo04
8:07 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Yea, I think so too, ST. We've been lucky except for Isabel since 1999. We are due for our activity to pick up, but I don't think it will this year. I was just using Hazel as an example of nobody is safe from big storms this late in the season.
141. Carbo04
8:02 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Hurricane Hazel was also in mid October. The only Category 4 North Carolina has ever had. So nobody even this far north is safe this time of year.
139. Jedkins
7:58 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
LBAR is an old model that is why it does poorly.
138. Jedkins
7:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Well there is going to be ALOT of rain in florida next week and most atlantic systems will be hitting florida for a while,it is just a matter if they develop or not but that big ridge will not allow them to impact any other sates or go out to sea for quite a while.
137. 2xtreme4u
7:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
I think the GFS is just as reliable as the LBAR at this point.
136. Jedkins
7:55 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
I dought that,and if that does happen then the world is ending soon lol....
135. tornadoty
7:54 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Hey Lefty, you there? I just saw the 384 hr GFS loop, and I noticed it has two systems striking Florida and just about everything developing off of Africa. What do you think about that?
134. Jedkins
7:54 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Siriously look at the radar there and you will see what I am talking about.
133. Carbo04
7:53 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
I think we'll see 3 tropical storms, and 1 hurricane early in November. Then one last TS in early December. as for this month.... I'm not sure about numbers, but I feel the Category 5 monster streak is not over for this season. I thnik we'll see one more monster this year in the Western Carribean.
132. Jedkins
7:53 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Omg this is so dumb,all the forecasts are saying that rain chances in south florida are about 30 to 40%.They are WAYYYY off,it should be about 70 to 80% with the amount of moisture and the amount of thunderstorm activity occuring there.I mean there are very numerous storms and the forecasts EVERYWHERE are saying scattered to isolated.The computer models completely failed in south florida today LOL.
129. Carbo04
7:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
So we have basically got to Tammy now with these 2 storms... So.. any predictions of how far we actually get into Greek Alphabet names since it looks certain we will?
128. olefosse
7:44 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Cirrocumulus.
Yes, I did. Interesting and reasonable. Let's see what happens. Please keep me informed as you say - I'm very interested in knowing how this plays out during today and tomorrow. After that, maybe we will have a clue about where Stan(?) will eventually end its days. Southeast Texas? Florida? NE Mexico? Norway?
126. Carbo04
7:41 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Hello All.

Looks like mother nature is repreducing more blobby's like rabbits again. TD 20 looks interesting. It could Opal, or Roxanne, or none of the above. UI'd lean toward doing a roxanne at this point though.
125. olefosse
7:37 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Very interesting stuff. It will be a pleasure watching the passage over land, to see if this tightening really will take place. The reasoning behind this does makes sense, and I believe it will happen too. Let's just hope Yucatan doesn't suffer much of damage during Stan(?)s visit.
124. cirrocumulus
7:33 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Olefosse, did you read the tropical discussion at NOAA on the interaction with the Yucatan? I'll let you know the status of the front on the way to Amarillo and on down through the Concho Valley.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
123. DocNDswamp
7:23 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
I know Lefty. Right now that SW flow doesn't dig deep enough, and the ridge still extends near TX/MX border, which supports landfall near there if it held up. Doubt it will thru Tue/Wed. with the approaching front...Afraid of it's influence on trop sys. but would be nice to get a real cold front thru...yesterday's was a joke...wooo, 68 deg. low, back up to 91 by aftn. and wind switched back to SE by sunset.

Good point olefosse, but overall circulation of system seems large enough for regeneration.

Well, I'm gonna have to leave awhile...didn't get to see vis sat on last attempt - dialup hung browser...sat servers probably getting heavy load today.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
122. cirrocumulus
7:21 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
TD 20 on navy satellite looked good last night. Lefty sent the first image in. I'm expecting this storm to enter N of Corpus. And it looks good on its way into the Yucatan on visible.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
121. tornadoty
7:15 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
We only need to look at TD 3, which survived across the Yucatan to emerge over the Gulf and become Cindy.
120. leftyy420
7:14 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
this is what the nhc says on td 20

THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 4
DAYS IS LAND INTERACTION. AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 18-30 HOURS... INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE RATHER LOOSE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AND
THIS SHOULD AID IN THE QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ONCE
THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 36
HOURS.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
119. leftyy420
7:13 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
ole since the ciruclation is so borad, its movement over land will actually help to tighten that gradient up. same thing happened woith opal and what the nhc is stating will happen. a weaker system like a depression can actually cross a stretch of land like the yucatan betetr thjan a stronger storm. so it should not impact it much at all
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
118. leftyy420
7:09 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
there is a weak wave there torn but the shear is 30kts. nothing will form for some time ion that enviroment
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
117. olefosse
7:08 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
It seems TD20 is just getting its act together, forming a center of circulation about at 18.7N 86.7W. Just about to run ashore, though. Not too impressive windspeeds measured by the recon plane. Wonder if this newborn system will be left with enough power to stay alive after travelling across the base of Yucatan to the hot waters on the other side.
116. leftyy420
7:08 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/18:50:30Z
B. 18 deg 48 min N
086 deg 48 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 207 deg 024 nm
F. 247 deg 025 kt
G. 195 deg 016 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 25 C/ 198 m
J. 25 C/ 205 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF309 02HHA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 25 KT SE QUAD 18:32:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
115. tornadoty
7:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Just watched my first loop with it! :) I noticed something, though. There is disturbed weather between the Antilles and TD 19. Lefty, I think you said it was just an area of convergence, but it has been persisting for quite a while, and Dr. Masters did mention the Caribbean being a favorable area for development next week. Do you think it will reach the Caribbean?
114. leftyy420
6:58 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
lol torn. happy for ya
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
113. tornadoty
6:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
WooHoo! Thank you guys, I finally have Java working on my computer! Thank you SO SO Much!!!!!!
112. leftyy420
6:55 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
well doc there is a weak ridge in place and how lonmg it stays where it is will determine the track. some models move it east and that will allow td 20 to recurve aways from mexico. still not sure though so its a wating game
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
111. DocNDswamp
6:52 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
G'afternoon StormJunkie - man you're gonna be late for that wedding if you hang out here too long. LOL. "pontoons on the plane and landed" - more LOL.

Guys I'm looking for you're feedback/thoughts on upper air flow - looks to me like SW flow established across all TX into LA except lower third TX where flow appears still weak. Call me "concerned"!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
110. leftyy420
6:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
wow cneter looks to be around 18.78n 86.75w. sw of where the nhc stated it was. very interesting
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
109. code1
6:46 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Thanks sj. I'll, along with others who are here always, not just during US landfall will be here lurking and learning.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
108. leftyy420
6:39 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
yeah code love the lurkers, hate the trolls lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
107. code1
6:38 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Hope you guys see the difference between lurkers and trolls. Lurkers are here to learn, regardless if something is going on or not. Trolls are just troublemakers who only show up when storms are on the horizon. Thanks to all who educate us lurkers!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
106. StormJunkie
6:38 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
It's all good code, was just giving you guys a hard time. And being nosey. lol. I am no expert either, but am learning more an more each year.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
105. StormJunkie
6:35 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Afternoon Doc.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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