ex-TD 5 regenerating; globe has 2nd or 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010

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The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system has enough spin to regenerate into a tropical depression later today or early Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense but disorganized thunderstorms lies over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity is intensifying and growing more organized. A center of circulation is becoming more defined about 60 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida. Strong upper-level winds out of the northeast are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over ex-TD 5, and this shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the northern side of the center of circulation. Thus, I expect that heavy thunderstorms will be slow to develop over land today. By Tuesday, ex-TD 5 should be able to intensify into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds, and heavy rains should spread across the entire Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. All of the models bring ex-TD 5 back ashore over Louisiana on Tuesday, and it is unlikely the storm will get sustained winds stronger than 50 mph. The GFDL model predicts ex-TD 5 will stay below tropical storm strength, while the HWRF predicts a 45-mph tropical storm at landfall on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters will fly into ex-TD 5 this afternoon to see if it has regenerated into a tropical depression. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models continue to predict a major pattern shift in the global atmospheric circulation late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and start to the Cape Verdes hurricane season. Most of the models predict a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras late this week.

Smoke clears from Moscow
Moderate westerly winds over the past few hours have cleared Moscow's air, bringing an end to a 42-hour period where smoke from persistent wildfires blanketed the city. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today, which is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls continued very hot temperatures and light and variable winds through Wednesday, as Russia's record heat wave continues. However, on Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure is expected to move through European Russia, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for July, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Second or fifth warmest July on record for the globe
July 2010 was the second warmest July on record, behind 1998, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). July was the first month since February that was not the warmest on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2010 the fifth warmest July on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - July, as the warmest such period on record. July 2010 global ocean temperatures were the fifth warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in July, according to University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), and the warmeest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS).

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from July 2010.

Russia, Finland, and Qatar set all time heat records
Three nations--Russia, Finland, and Qatar--recorded their hottest temperatures in history during July 2010. No nation set a coldest temperature of all time record.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old recrod for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) The source for the previous all-time records listed here is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt.

Seventeenth warmest July on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 17th warmest July in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to July, was the 27th warmest such period on record. Two states, Delaware and Rhode Island, had their warmest July on record. Fourteen other states had a top-ten warmest July on record, including nearly every state on the Atlantic East Coast. No state recorded a top-ten coldest July.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., July 2010 ranked as the 36th wettest July in the 116-year record. Four states--Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska--had a top ten wettest July on record. Only Louisiana had a top-ten driest July on record.


Figure 3. The record-setting hailstone of July 23, 2010, that fell on Vivian, South Dakota. Image credit: National Weather Service, South Dakota.

Record hailstone falls in South Dakota
A severe storm on July 23rd dropped hundreds of massive hailstones on the small town of Vivian, South Dakota. Local reports stated that every house in Vivian sustained some type of hail damage. One of the stones collected broke the U.S. record not only for the largest hailstone (in diameter) but also the heaviest. The stone measured 8 inches (20.3 cm) in diameter, 18.5 inches (47.0 cm) in circumference, and weighed 1.9375 lbs (0.89 kg). It was also reported that the hailstone was originally much larger, but the freezer it was stored in lost power for about five to six hours and the person who collected it kept opening the freezer door to show friends and relatives. Even so, it smashed the previous hailstone record of 7 inches (17.8 cm) diameter, collected in southern Nebraska in June 2003. The world record for the heaviest hailstone belongs to Bangladesh, with a stone collected in April 1986 that weighed 2.25 lb (1.02 kg).

U.S. tornadoes
On July 25th, an EF-1 tornado touched down in Bronx County, New York, marking only the second ever recorded in the Bronx. On July 26th, an EF-3 tornado hit rural Sheridan County, Montana, killing two. This ties as the deadliest tornado in Montana history, and only the fourth EF-3 or stronger tornado ever observed in the state.

La Niña intensifies to moderate strength
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.1°C below average by August 16, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.0°C below average (as of August 8.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 1.0°C below average. SSTs 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. La Niña conditions must be present for several months before this will be officially classified as a La Niña event, but it is highly likely that a full-fledged La Niña event lasting at least seven more months has arrived. We started out the year with a strong El Niño, so it may seem surprising that we have transitioned La Niña so quickly, However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

It is well-known that both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to increase during La Niña events. However, as I discussed in a post in June, since 1995, neutral years (when neither an El Niño or La Niña are present) have had Atlantic hurricane activity equal to La Niña years. The last time we had a strong El Niño event followed by a La Niña event in the same year, in 1998, we had a Atlantic hurricane season 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. I'm thinking this year's season may be similar, though four or more intense hurricanes are a good bet due to the record warm SSTs.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of August, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 will probably end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

July 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in July 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Relatively cool weather occurred this July in the Arctic, compared to 2007, when the record low was set. Ice volume was at a record low for July, though, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. On August 16, the fabled Northwest Passage was just a day or two from melting open, and will probably be open for navigation during most of late August and all of September.

Jeff Masters

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Joe Bastardis take on 05L

Video on 05L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Boudreaux77:
Is x05L doing anything to cool off the SST's in the Gulf? Or do we need a bigger storm to upwell cooler waters?


Ya usually need a bigger storm, its pulling some energy out, but not much.
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If ex-05L does become Danielle, we may be dealing with a Earl a few days later.

12z GFS 72 hours:

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The Allison thing wasnt a forecast,just a observation that it dosent have to be big and windy,,just to linger to do the nasty.
This one is gonna stall for a spell ..and thats never good,save for the marsh this time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
this depression is going further out into the GOM.. (look ike it to m e anyway)..iF it does not start a NW turn soon would texas be likely at all?
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Quoting Boudreaux77:
Is x05L doing anything to cool off the SST's in the Gulf? Or do we need a bigger storm to upwell cooler waters?



we need a biger storm
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Is x05L doing anything to cool off the SST's in the Gulf? Or do we need a bigger storm to upwell cooler waters?
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Quoting timtrice:


You can "produce" all you want - you may have been following for 25 years but your memory must suck (winds are in KTS, btw):



Those are just for 10kt winds. If you want a detailed listing of storms w/ 15kt and more, you just let me know.

I've been studying hurricanes for 20 years and not just those that have developed since then. Before you run your mouth, check your facts.


And, by the way, that's best track official data from NOAA's AOML branch

Link
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188. BA
Quoting aspectre:
BondiBeach getting hammered by a HUGE breaker...

...while the New South Wales coastline was battered by similar waves ramped up by 50mph winds, and Sydney Harbour was turned into a no-go zone.



awesome stuff, nice pic
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember that one well up here in d.c.


Yep Richmond saw its worst flooding then since hazel or Camille.
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looks like i will not get rain again from ex-t.d.5. when it came through the 1st time all the weather was to the ne of the center. now all the rain is to the south west of the center. will this system wrap up or will the rain stay to the south?
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Well-defined circulation associated with ex-05L as noted on total precipitable water.

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Quoting iahishome:
I would LOVE to take some of your SST's off of your hands! I was at the beach in Oxnard, CA with my son yesterday and I could barely go in the water. It was painful to touch. I heard some local fishermen saying the water was 61 degrees, and the fish were even too cold to bite.
89 off the pier here yesterday. and it's COOLED down some since #5 has been annoying us for a week.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Gaston did it too. He parked right over us here in richmond, and it restrengthened to a TS due to the feeder bands being over the chesapeake.
I remember that one well up here in d.c.
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Quoting NOLALawyer:
Pat, that is because Allison parked herself over Houston and moved up and down, but not away. I don't see TD5 as forecast to pull an Allison. I see a weak TS, at best, that may cause some street flooding and mess up traffic, but is not going to a Billion dollar storm.


Gaston did it too. He parked right over us here in richmond, and it restrengthened to a TS due to the feeder bands being over the chesapeake.
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Big face palm guys.When I asked people do they know it's hurricane season they said."Oh really it is?."One guy said it looks like it's going to be a quite season so people can take their labor day vacation.One person said where are the hurricanes?.People have been become so complacent since 2009 it's unbelivable.
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Ironically our next stop on vacation is the Galveston 1900 Hurricane museum should be rather interesting...
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I'm sure ex-05L is just lovin' those 31.0˚C SSTs it is sitting on.

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Quoting Hurricanes12:
I don't understand some people sometimes. Downcasters are just annoying.. sure, they have their points, but there are always some people who are constantly RIP'ing everything...

We are all here for the same reason... we all love to watch storms develop through out their lives.. of course we don't ever wish they hit land, but we do love to see fish storms and storms that don't impact anyone or anything (except the fishes). It's annoying to see the downcasters just craving to kill any wave they see. Funny thing is, it's always the same people who are downcasting.


That is your first mistake. We are not all here for the same reason. I am here so I know what is gong on. If no storm ever formed I would be just fine with that. I don't forecast and have no desire to. I do enjoy some of the personalities on here and the humor is great. Your second mistake is to generalize - that never works.
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they just use the max figure to distinguish from a TS
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Quick question...

Is PGl30L the wave that just emerged? Or is it the one over Nigeria. If not, does the Nigerian Wave have a name like that? Thanks.
Yes, the one that just emerged is PGI30L. The other one will likely get called PGI3_L soon...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Expert? I ain't no expert, lol. I already have him on my "poof" list...it really helps.


LOL!!! i just put her on ignore.
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Quoting BobinTampa:


is it even possible for a closed low to have winds that low?


prob not but that is NHC description
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Africa will be spitting systems out like a BEagle whelping in Spring soon nuff.

So the Flow here will get better as the action picks up...blog wise.


I can see in few week 2-3-4 out there spinning. Then we will be a rocking the Casbah on wu.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
I've seen as low as 25 for TDs. The buoys might not be showing the entire wind field either, for what its worth last time TD5 was declared on the surface I only found buoy winds of 20 mph. Recon found otherwise.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23870
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Doesn't seem that way to me...I don't see anything to indicate a low there. Either way, the low wouldn't be associated with PGI30L.


Quick question...

Is PGl30L the wave that just emerged? Or is it the one over Nigeria? If not, does the Nigerian Wave have a name like that? Thanks.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Don't slam the experts like storm levi, and miami.
Expert? I ain't no expert, lol. I already have him on my "poof" list...it really helps.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yes they do... they need at least 30 mph. You cant have a low pressure system producing 5 mph winds called a depression. However usually if they are well defined they have more than 30 mph winds. So those wind reports could just mean its not as well defined as we thought.


VAbeachhurricanes, there have been numberous depressions on records with winds less than 30mph - I've seen them as low as 15MPH. Depressions do not have a minimum wind criteria
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The worst winds will likely be in the NE quadrant regardless of it being sheared by marginal conditions.
Thanks
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Quoting will45:
if it has a closed low yes according to their cryteria


is it even possible for a closed low to have winds that low?
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The wave that the models are developing is looking like it will be fully emerged by this evening.I don't think it's out of the question we see a circle go up on it.
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Quoting scott39:
So do yo think the NE quadrant of this L is not going to be as strong at landfall as it usually is in TCs?
The worst winds will likely be in the NE quadrant regardless of it being sheared by marginal conditions.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I know, but you really think the NHC will issue advisories on a 5 or 10 mph storm...


Wind really has nothing to do with it. If the system has a closed circulation, then it posses a threat of developing down the road and people need to be notified of appending danger.

The NHC doesnt really care about how important criteria are to meet for classification of a storm.

The only reason NHC exist is to give early warnings. That's there main objective.

That's why they upgrade things earlier and without full criteria being fulfilled near land, because of the dangers the system might pose in the long run.
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I think it might track slightly south of its last course Patrap.
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Maybe that smaller ball of convection below the CoC proper ,,could,,maybe be taking the Mojo and running with it.

Or maybe a spin within the overall. Actually we want a tight core to keep the wind down there and also it would create a tighter rain shield. A weaker system will most likely develop a Large rain shield.

We dont want dat.

So we may have to rob Pat to Pay Paul in a way

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting katrinakat5:
no miami like i said before check the ssts off of africa they barely support tropical activity and the dry air will still be there...same old equation...


Don't slam the experts like storm levi, and miami.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay I have two questions,and anybody is welcomed to answer them.

1).Why do they call the bp spill,the deep water horizon spill.

2).Are we average for our tornado count this year.Or still below average.Thanks.


2010 Tornado Totals
Link
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Miami, or anyone else. Surface analyzation by the 12z GFS shows a low already out by africa? Is that really there?
Doesn't seem that way to me...I don't see anything to indicate a low there. Either way, the low wouldn't be associated with PGI30L.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I know, but you really think the NHC will issue advisories on a 5 or 10 mph storm...
if it has a closed low yes according to their cryteria
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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