ex-TD 5 regenerating; globe has 2nd or 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010

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The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system has enough spin to regenerate into a tropical depression later today or early Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense but disorganized thunderstorms lies over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity is intensifying and growing more organized. A center of circulation is becoming more defined about 60 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida. Strong upper-level winds out of the northeast are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over ex-TD 5, and this shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the northern side of the center of circulation. Thus, I expect that heavy thunderstorms will be slow to develop over land today. By Tuesday, ex-TD 5 should be able to intensify into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds, and heavy rains should spread across the entire Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. All of the models bring ex-TD 5 back ashore over Louisiana on Tuesday, and it is unlikely the storm will get sustained winds stronger than 50 mph. The GFDL model predicts ex-TD 5 will stay below tropical storm strength, while the HWRF predicts a 45-mph tropical storm at landfall on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters will fly into ex-TD 5 this afternoon to see if it has regenerated into a tropical depression. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models continue to predict a major pattern shift in the global atmospheric circulation late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and start to the Cape Verdes hurricane season. Most of the models predict a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras late this week.

Smoke clears from Moscow
Moderate westerly winds over the past few hours have cleared Moscow's air, bringing an end to a 42-hour period where smoke from persistent wildfires blanketed the city. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today, which is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls continued very hot temperatures and light and variable winds through Wednesday, as Russia's record heat wave continues. However, on Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure is expected to move through European Russia, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for July, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Second or fifth warmest July on record for the globe
July 2010 was the second warmest July on record, behind 1998, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). July was the first month since February that was not the warmest on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2010 the fifth warmest July on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - July, as the warmest such period on record. July 2010 global ocean temperatures were the fifth warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in July, according to University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), and the warmeest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS).

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from July 2010.

Russia, Finland, and Qatar set all time heat records
Three nations--Russia, Finland, and Qatar--recorded their hottest temperatures in history during July 2010. No nation set a coldest temperature of all time record.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old recrod for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) The source for the previous all-time records listed here is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt.

Seventeenth warmest July on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 17th warmest July in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to July, was the 27th warmest such period on record. Two states, Delaware and Rhode Island, had their warmest July on record. Fourteen other states had a top-ten warmest July on record, including nearly every state on the Atlantic East Coast. No state recorded a top-ten coldest July.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., July 2010 ranked as the 36th wettest July in the 116-year record. Four states--Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska--had a top ten wettest July on record. Only Louisiana had a top-ten driest July on record.


Figure 3. The record-setting hailstone of July 23, 2010, that fell on Vivian, South Dakota. Image credit: National Weather Service, South Dakota.

Record hailstone falls in South Dakota
A severe storm on July 23rd dropped hundreds of massive hailstones on the small town of Vivian, South Dakota. Local reports stated that every house in Vivian sustained some type of hail damage. One of the stones collected broke the U.S. record not only for the largest hailstone (in diameter) but also the heaviest. The stone measured 8 inches (20.3 cm) in diameter, 18.5 inches (47.0 cm) in circumference, and weighed 1.9375 lbs (0.89 kg). It was also reported that the hailstone was originally much larger, but the freezer it was stored in lost power for about five to six hours and the person who collected it kept opening the freezer door to show friends and relatives. Even so, it smashed the previous hailstone record of 7 inches (17.8 cm) diameter, collected in southern Nebraska in June 2003. The world record for the heaviest hailstone belongs to Bangladesh, with a stone collected in April 1986 that weighed 2.25 lb (1.02 kg).

U.S. tornadoes
On July 25th, an EF-1 tornado touched down in Bronx County, New York, marking only the second ever recorded in the Bronx. On July 26th, an EF-3 tornado hit rural Sheridan County, Montana, killing two. This ties as the deadliest tornado in Montana history, and only the fourth EF-3 or stronger tornado ever observed in the state.

La Niña intensifies to moderate strength
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.1°C below average by August 16, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.0°C below average (as of August 8.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 1.0°C below average. SSTs 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. La Niña conditions must be present for several months before this will be officially classified as a La Niña event, but it is highly likely that a full-fledged La Niña event lasting at least seven more months has arrived. We started out the year with a strong El Niño, so it may seem surprising that we have transitioned La Niña so quickly, However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

It is well-known that both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to increase during La Niña events. However, as I discussed in a post in June, since 1995, neutral years (when neither an El Niño or La Niña are present) have had Atlantic hurricane activity equal to La Niña years. The last time we had a strong El Niño event followed by a La Niña event in the same year, in 1998, we had a Atlantic hurricane season 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. I'm thinking this year's season may be similar, though four or more intense hurricanes are a good bet due to the record warm SSTs.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of August, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 will probably end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

July 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in July 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Relatively cool weather occurred this July in the Arctic, compared to 2007, when the record low was set. Ice volume was at a record low for July, though, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. On August 16, the fabled Northwest Passage was just a day or two from melting open, and will probably be open for navigation during most of late August and all of September.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tkeith:
I typed in Biloxi in the search bar and got a radar...that's all I know, maybe Gulfport?
It is Mobile radar tkeith.
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
to far to the north fish storm and into cooler water temp. next storm back of it we need to watch...


This is true, however the GFS holds it below 24N all the way to 70W before it really begins to recurve around 180 hrs.

Im not sure that all fish storms come from that area though you could make a strong argument that they do.

However can you prove that there is a ULL or TUIT that is pulling this system to recurve around that time line? Thats what I am more interested in at the moment. There are possibly two more systems trailing this...
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696. xcool






The storm is 207.4 statute miles from NOLA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Things to note:

1.) There is still a High Chance that Ex-TD #5/Soon to be TD #5 will become Danielle. SE LA is really swampy, and it will probably intensify over that area.

2.) If this system does become Danielle, we should have Earl later this week from PGI30L. This could become our first Major Hurricane of the season and the start of the Cape Verde Season.

3.) A wave over Central Africa needs to be monitored closely, as the 12z GFS shows it developing and effecting the Leeward Islands, and possible the United States
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690. Patrap 1:50 PM CDT on August 16, 2010

That's the one Pat...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
Quoting tkeith:
I typed in Biloxi in the search bar and got a radar...that's all I know, maybe Gulfport?


Nope they don't have one the next closest would be KMOB then KEVX located on Eglin Airforce base in FL
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692. IKE
168 hr. 12Z ECMWF...

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Quoting Jeff9641:
Very severe flooding here in Altamonte Springs, FL. rain guage at work at 4.56" in 1 hour and it still pounding very bad. Steet is covered by 3' of water right now and still rising.

Bad...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24379
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128634
Getting some really nasty weather from TD05 in Beaumont, Texas.

3gp video here
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Or send out a Special Advisory
When the Ex-5 system finally makes landfall, it keeps a lot of its energy. Look at the NAM..Link
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Quoting blsealevel:




Accroding to GFS there is a significant pressure change over that very area.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Biloxi doesn't have a radar do they ?
I typed in Biloxi in the search bar and got a radar...that's all I know, maybe Gulfport?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936


.."Radar Love"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128634
682. xcool
;
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Biloxi doesn't have a radar do they ?


There's a NWS WSR-88D in Mobile (KMOB).
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Quoting Cotillion:


I'm aware of the theoretical guidelines. But we're talking about the realistic (and actual) interpretation. I've not looked through the AOML guides, so I can't agree or disagree with you.

However, the previous link says that no tropical depression was issued until it had reached that mark. We all know that TDs can be declared with subsequent decrease in wind speed. On the other hand, the initiation of advisories on a TD seems to require, at least in actual practice, that 30mph mark.

I'd like to see otherwise, of course.


But, you can't make that argument for a minimum wind speed if even best track analysis by the Hurricane Research Division of AOML is updating past storms listing them with having winds of 10-15mph both before attaining tropical storm status and after attaining storm status. I'd understand your argument if we're talking about dissipating cyclones. But we're talking on generating cyclones. Plus, by definition, there is no minimum wind speed for tropical depression classification. I understand your point that the habit has been for depressions to be classified with winds of 30-35mph. But, as another poster wrote earlier, that's more because of the convection surrounding the system generating those winds as opposed to the NHC waited until the system got that strong to classify it a depression.
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Quoting beell:


Stickin' with SELA tradition...
Gotta be Monday/Wash Day.
You got it :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
[quote]Why do some of the posters want these storms to develop? We don't want any more rain, or any type of storm for that matter, here in New Orleans. Do some people really want devastating storms to make landfall?[/quote]

Oh, you would be surprised. Some people just like to see destruction. Some are amazed at the power of these storms, some people making a living off of these storms....

I have always been fascinated with them.
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Thanks again to everyone that helped answer the questions about the naming of 05L or ex-TD5 (think I like this better). I guess the question now is once it came back over water, why didn't they post it on the "tropical and hurricane" page? That is usually where I view the models and read the updates. I feel like the only way I am able to stay up on this is by following the blog - which is fantastic by the way - but I wonder if this is more of the reason all of us novices have been asking the questions about the naming or re-naming.
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
fish storm


Will you stop saying that, my god!

Its not even formed yet!
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Quoting tkeith:
I'm using Biloxi radar right now...it's close :)


Biloxi doesn't have a radar do they ?
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671. beell
Quoting tkeith:
If she makes here by tonight...she'll be eatin Red Beans and Rice :)


Stickin' with SELA tradition...
Gotta be Monday/Wash Day.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16720
Quoting Patrap:
Of all days for the Slidell to go down tkeith.

NOLA Wu page
I'm using Biloxi radar right now...it's close :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
Of all the days for the Slidell radar to go down tkeith...it had to be today

NOLA Wu page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128634
Quoting Jeff9641:
Very severe flooding here in Altamonte Springs, FL. rain guage at work at 4.56" in 1 hour and it still pounding very bad. Steet is covered by 3' of water right now and still rising.


I wish I had it.
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665. JRRP
120 hrs

144 hrs
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Thanks SDFish - just saw your reply.
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Quoting SETX:
New to the forum, but it looks like center may be forming a tad south of models, yes?


Thats what it looks like to me, but im new too.

And thanks Hurricanes101!
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Quoting hydrus:
..................Good rotation with the wave that recently moved off the coast of Africa.


That'll be our next named system after 05L, if she does become Danielle. Thats the one the GFS has constantly made a major hurricane.
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Quoting pcola57:
Hey Pat
seems like some rain in waves here now...starting to feel like bands might be our future...
light rain but got "Air You Can Wear" in between showers
seems like each passing has more water


Yes indeed..itsa filling,slowly,,but surely.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128634
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon found a closed low with a pressure of 1009.1 and plenty of 30mph winds. I assume that they will classify it at 5p.m.


Or send out a Special Advisory
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I want my radar back!!
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
Quoting timtrice:


That's best-track analysis from AOML. Technically, any system w/ winds under 39mph is a depression. If you want to get specific calling a storm a storm then a storm must have winds over 39mph. If you want to get generic, call it a cyclone. subtropical low or subtropical storm, they're still cyclones. You can call it a subtropical cyclone. There are many instances in the past that the AOML has listed "tropical cyclones" with winds as low as 10mph/kts.


I'm aware of the theoretical guidelines. But we're talking about the realistic (and actual) interpretation. I've not looked through the AOML guides, so I can't agree or disagree with you.

However, the previous link says that no tropical depression was issued until it had reached that mark. We all know that TDs can be declared with subsequent decrease in wind speed. On the other hand, the initiation of advisories on a TD seems to require, at least in actual practice, that 30mph mark.

I'd like to see otherwise, of course.
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Hey Pat
seems like some rain in waves here now...starting to feel like bands might be our future...
light rain but got "Air You Can Wear" in between showers
seems like each passing has more water
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I maybe check out comment 119 here for the cooling planet-teirs..

Ricky Rood's CC Entry

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128634
Recon found a closed low with a pressure of 1009.1 and plenty of 30mph winds. I assume that they will classify it at 5p.m.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting alaina1085:

It looks like it wants to swallow Louisiana!! Told yall she didnt get enuff gumbo first time round!
If she makes here by tonight...she'll be eatin Red Beans and Rice :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
..................Good rotation with the wave that recently moved off the coast of Africa.
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Quoting pub123:
NOAA and NASA'a temperature methodology, as well as reducing temp stations by more than half, is generating false numbers.

There is no scientific basis for their wild-eyed claims. In real numbers, 2010 is continuing the planetary cooling that has been ongoing for years now.

BTW, James Hansen admitted that it was Arctic temps that put their averages over the top. The problem is they have no reporting station data from there - they estimated it was warmer. In fact, the actual temps during ice melt season hit record low territory.


Classic...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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