ex-TD 5 regenerating; globe has 2nd or 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010

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The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system has enough spin to regenerate into a tropical depression later today or early Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense but disorganized thunderstorms lies over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity is intensifying and growing more organized. A center of circulation is becoming more defined about 60 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida. Strong upper-level winds out of the northeast are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over ex-TD 5, and this shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the northern side of the center of circulation. Thus, I expect that heavy thunderstorms will be slow to develop over land today. By Tuesday, ex-TD 5 should be able to intensify into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds, and heavy rains should spread across the entire Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. All of the models bring ex-TD 5 back ashore over Louisiana on Tuesday, and it is unlikely the storm will get sustained winds stronger than 50 mph. The GFDL model predicts ex-TD 5 will stay below tropical storm strength, while the HWRF predicts a 45-mph tropical storm at landfall on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters will fly into ex-TD 5 this afternoon to see if it has regenerated into a tropical depression. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models continue to predict a major pattern shift in the global atmospheric circulation late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and start to the Cape Verdes hurricane season. Most of the models predict a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras late this week.

Smoke clears from Moscow
Moderate westerly winds over the past few hours have cleared Moscow's air, bringing an end to a 42-hour period where smoke from persistent wildfires blanketed the city. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today, which is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls continued very hot temperatures and light and variable winds through Wednesday, as Russia's record heat wave continues. However, on Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure is expected to move through European Russia, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for July, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Second or fifth warmest July on record for the globe
July 2010 was the second warmest July on record, behind 1998, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). July was the first month since February that was not the warmest on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2010 the fifth warmest July on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - July, as the warmest such period on record. July 2010 global ocean temperatures were the fifth warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in July, according to University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), and the warmeest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS).

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from July 2010.

Russia, Finland, and Qatar set all time heat records
Three nations--Russia, Finland, and Qatar--recorded their hottest temperatures in history during July 2010. No nation set a coldest temperature of all time record.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old recrod for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) The source for the previous all-time records listed here is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt.

Seventeenth warmest July on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 17th warmest July in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to July, was the 27th warmest such period on record. Two states, Delaware and Rhode Island, had their warmest July on record. Fourteen other states had a top-ten warmest July on record, including nearly every state on the Atlantic East Coast. No state recorded a top-ten coldest July.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., July 2010 ranked as the 36th wettest July in the 116-year record. Four states--Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska--had a top ten wettest July on record. Only Louisiana had a top-ten driest July on record.


Figure 3. The record-setting hailstone of July 23, 2010, that fell on Vivian, South Dakota. Image credit: National Weather Service, South Dakota.

Record hailstone falls in South Dakota
A severe storm on July 23rd dropped hundreds of massive hailstones on the small town of Vivian, South Dakota. Local reports stated that every house in Vivian sustained some type of hail damage. One of the stones collected broke the U.S. record not only for the largest hailstone (in diameter) but also the heaviest. The stone measured 8 inches (20.3 cm) in diameter, 18.5 inches (47.0 cm) in circumference, and weighed 1.9375 lbs (0.89 kg). It was also reported that the hailstone was originally much larger, but the freezer it was stored in lost power for about five to six hours and the person who collected it kept opening the freezer door to show friends and relatives. Even so, it smashed the previous hailstone record of 7 inches (17.8 cm) diameter, collected in southern Nebraska in June 2003. The world record for the heaviest hailstone belongs to Bangladesh, with a stone collected in April 1986 that weighed 2.25 lb (1.02 kg).

U.S. tornadoes
On July 25th, an EF-1 tornado touched down in Bronx County, New York, marking only the second ever recorded in the Bronx. On July 26th, an EF-3 tornado hit rural Sheridan County, Montana, killing two. This ties as the deadliest tornado in Montana history, and only the fourth EF-3 or stronger tornado ever observed in the state.

La Niña intensifies to moderate strength
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.1°C below average by August 16, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.0°C below average (as of August 8.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 1.0°C below average. SSTs 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. La Niña conditions must be present for several months before this will be officially classified as a La Niña event, but it is highly likely that a full-fledged La Niña event lasting at least seven more months has arrived. We started out the year with a strong El Niño, so it may seem surprising that we have transitioned La Niña so quickly, However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

It is well-known that both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to increase during La Niña events. However, as I discussed in a post in June, since 1995, neutral years (when neither an El Niño or La Niña are present) have had Atlantic hurricane activity equal to La Niña years. The last time we had a strong El Niño event followed by a La Niña event in the same year, in 1998, we had a Atlantic hurricane season 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. I'm thinking this year's season may be similar, though four or more intense hurricanes are a good bet due to the record warm SSTs.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of August, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 will probably end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

July 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in July 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Relatively cool weather occurred this July in the Arctic, compared to 2007, when the record low was set. Ice volume was at a record low for July, though, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. On August 16, the fabled Northwest Passage was just a day or two from melting open, and will probably be open for navigation during most of late August and all of September.

Jeff Masters

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1598. tkeith
1588. Patrap 6:00 PM CDT on August 16, 2010
Shear again saves da day..well at least so far.

Peek-a-boo!


This Low does not seem to like the open water much. I wouldn't be surprised if it has better structure once it's over land again.

Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8939
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there KOTG

What can one say. I suppose that eventually something the models are spitting out well into the future will come to pass.
yea, whats the deal today? everyone seems so excited about the models. imho the models have been garbage this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
like everything else though the GFS has backed off on the number of storms that will form

ok so if this "monster" system does in fact miss Bermuda, all the GFS is showing is a powerful fish storm and a weak TS before the end of August

that brings us to Earl; a few days ago it was developing 5 systems in 2 weeks, and it has done this before

by that trend, I see the GFS eliminating the 2nd weak system and only making this one a weak hurricane in the next few runs
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do you have a link to that model?


Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


It would be 5 years since a MAJOR hurricane hasn't hit the US. It would be 2 years since a significant system has not threatened the US.. Ike was the 3rd most damaging US hurricane ever. Behind Andrew and Katrina.
You have to put things in perspective when talking about Ike. Yes, it did have a storm surge of a much larger system, but in monetary terms, it hit a much larger population center than Katrina or Andrews.
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Quoting Patrap:


You just deflated about 600 folks Kman.

Shame,shame...


That many huh ?.
I will say this though, if marks were given out for persistence the GFS would score very high on this. At least we can now watch and see what happens.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
While I'm thinking of it, here's the current 26°C isotherm depth chart:

Come and get it!

...and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map.

Come and get it!
If something gets into that then the results could be nasty.But nature has been on our side so far.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18962
Quoting StormSurgeon:


....and at 400 hours we have this, and at 600 hours we have that. Now I know how Alice felt after her adventure down the rabbit hole.

I'll let ya know if the rabbit hole lands in my neck of the woods!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there KOTG

What can one say. I suppose that eventually something the models are spitting out well into the future will come to pass.


you know it, even a blind man can roll a srtike once in a blue moon.....
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1588. Patrap
Shear again saves da day..well at least so far.

Peek-a-boo!



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1587. tkeith
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there KOTG

What can one say. I suppose that eventually something the models are spitting out well into the future will come to pass.


It's a safe bet we'll get plenty of heads-up on it when it does...

evening Kman
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8939
Quoting kmanislander:


LOL, yeah, you're right on that one. I have been saying that it would be two weeks from two weekends ago before the action would pick up which takes us to the end of the weekend coming up.

There are some signs of widescale instability starting to set in but the TUTT still rules the Western Atlantic. The feature that has just exited the W Coast of Africa is already pretty far N and the dry air is still plentiful out there.



Well, the system that's emerging is pretty far north but the models aren't saying it will gain much more latitude. It hasn't even fully emerged and has created a pretty good dent to the SAL..


Great to see you btw Kman.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24759
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
live and let learn

Has not even developed yet by the time all said and done the GFS model run on this will be probably cover every mile of the Atlantic Ocean.
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1582. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Weird...

And very interesting....Think of the possibilities with a pattern like that.
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360:

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
live and let learn


Hi there KOTG

What can one say. I suppose that eventually something the models are spitting out well into the future will come to pass.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Weird...


Do you have a link to that model?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
WNPR agreed.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18962
While I'm thinking of it, here's the current 26°C isotherm depth chart:

Come and get it!

...and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map.

Come and get it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
let's hope so that would make it 5 years that a significant system has not threated the u.s.Also I want to takw my vacation.


It would be 5 years since a MAJOR hurricane hasn't hit the US. It would be 2 years since a significant system has not threatened the US.. Ike was the 3rd most damaging US hurricane ever. Behind Andrew and Katrina.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24759
Quoting CybrTeddy:
An ACE like the GFS run is showing would be comparable to the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, probably higher too.

O.O
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
If the system stays off the east coast it will probally create big waves,and a rip current wave.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18962
1572. hydrus
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Frederick did revive however! Good evening hydrus.
just a bit...:)
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1571. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


LOL, yeah, you're right on that one. I have been saying that it would be two weeks from two weekends ago before the action would pick up which takes us to the end of the weekend coming up.

There are some signs of widescale instability starting to set in but the TUTT still rules the Western Atlantic. The feature that has just exited the W Coast of Africa is already pretty far N and the dry air is still plentiful out there.



You just deflated about 600 folks Kman.

Shame,shame...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Close to the NE:


Reminds me of Bill last year.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
Quoting Patrap:


Hiya Kman..Glad this one aint coming off the Yucatan with a N heading..



LOL, yeah, you're right on that one. I have been saying that it would be two weeks from two weekends ago before the action would pick up which takes us to the end of the weekend coming up.

There are some signs of widescale instability starting to set in but the TUTT still rules the Western Atlantic. The feature that has just exited the W Coast of Africa is already pretty far N and the dry air is still plentiful out there.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1568. Patrap
05L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

One can see the real Overall CoC is way Se of the Bizz..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
If the GFS forecast were to verify, then we are into Sept 1st without a significant system threatening the US. It's a long way out but something to watch.
let's hope so that would make it 5 years that a significant system has not threated the u.s.Also I want to takw my vacation.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18962
Weird...

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An ACE like the GFS run is showing would be comparable to the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, probably higher too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24759
1563. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
my motto is what you think you're getting and what you will be getting will always be two different things
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 187 Comments: 57941
Close to the NE:

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1560. Patrap
The white Line is the Path traveled..

And a wacky one at dat
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Quoting scott39:
I swear I saw model earlier that had it looping again. It was white. Probably my eyes going bad! LOL


Please don't go there.........He really likes the Missisipi Delta but this is starting to get ridiculous....:)
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Quoting Patrap:
Follow dem Long Range Mb's and Models and ya may go right off a cliff with your Blinker on..

LOL


....and at 400 hours we have this, and at 600 hours we have that. Now I know how Alice felt after her adventure down the rabbit hole.
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1557. xcool
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1556. Patrap
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1555. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
Thanks Patrap
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6914
1554. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


Its hilarious really, waiting for every run and then lamenting the future fate of Bermuda.


Hiya Kman..Glad this one aint coming off the Yucatan with a N heading..

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL!

It swings PGI30L around the ridge and its heading towards the Azores!

Man that would be a LOT of ACE.

That would be unbelievable!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
1552. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting kmanislander:


Its hilarious really, waiting for every run and then lamenting the future fate of Bermuda.
live and let learn
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 187 Comments: 57941
1551. Patrap
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1549. scott39
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


With the history of this system, it will probably keep on building long after coming ashore .... LOL
I swear I saw model earlier that had it looping again. It was white. Probably my eyes going bad! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6914
Looks like all the models are taking this out to sea.let's hope it misses bermuda.It looks like they've been the target for awhile.A fabian is not wanted on that island.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18962

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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