ex-TD 5 regenerating; globe has 2nd or 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010

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The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system has enough spin to regenerate into a tropical depression later today or early Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense but disorganized thunderstorms lies over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity is intensifying and growing more organized. A center of circulation is becoming more defined about 60 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida. Strong upper-level winds out of the northeast are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over ex-TD 5, and this shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the northern side of the center of circulation. Thus, I expect that heavy thunderstorms will be slow to develop over land today. By Tuesday, ex-TD 5 should be able to intensify into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds, and heavy rains should spread across the entire Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. All of the models bring ex-TD 5 back ashore over Louisiana on Tuesday, and it is unlikely the storm will get sustained winds stronger than 50 mph. The GFDL model predicts ex-TD 5 will stay below tropical storm strength, while the HWRF predicts a 45-mph tropical storm at landfall on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters will fly into ex-TD 5 this afternoon to see if it has regenerated into a tropical depression. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models continue to predict a major pattern shift in the global atmospheric circulation late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and start to the Cape Verdes hurricane season. Most of the models predict a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras late this week.

Smoke clears from Moscow
Moderate westerly winds over the past few hours have cleared Moscow's air, bringing an end to a 42-hour period where smoke from persistent wildfires blanketed the city. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today, which is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls continued very hot temperatures and light and variable winds through Wednesday, as Russia's record heat wave continues. However, on Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure is expected to move through European Russia, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for July, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Second or fifth warmest July on record for the globe
July 2010 was the second warmest July on record, behind 1998, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). July was the first month since February that was not the warmest on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2010 the fifth warmest July on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - July, as the warmest such period on record. July 2010 global ocean temperatures were the fifth warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in July, according to University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), and the warmeest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS).

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from July 2010.

Russia, Finland, and Qatar set all time heat records
Three nations--Russia, Finland, and Qatar--recorded their hottest temperatures in history during July 2010. No nation set a coldest temperature of all time record.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old recrod for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) The source for the previous all-time records listed here is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt.

Seventeenth warmest July on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 17th warmest July in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to July, was the 27th warmest such period on record. Two states, Delaware and Rhode Island, had their warmest July on record. Fourteen other states had a top-ten warmest July on record, including nearly every state on the Atlantic East Coast. No state recorded a top-ten coldest July.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., July 2010 ranked as the 36th wettest July in the 116-year record. Four states--Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska--had a top ten wettest July on record. Only Louisiana had a top-ten driest July on record.


Figure 3. The record-setting hailstone of July 23, 2010, that fell on Vivian, South Dakota. Image credit: National Weather Service, South Dakota.

Record hailstone falls in South Dakota
A severe storm on July 23rd dropped hundreds of massive hailstones on the small town of Vivian, South Dakota. Local reports stated that every house in Vivian sustained some type of hail damage. One of the stones collected broke the U.S. record not only for the largest hailstone (in diameter) but also the heaviest. The stone measured 8 inches (20.3 cm) in diameter, 18.5 inches (47.0 cm) in circumference, and weighed 1.9375 lbs (0.89 kg). It was also reported that the hailstone was originally much larger, but the freezer it was stored in lost power for about five to six hours and the person who collected it kept opening the freezer door to show friends and relatives. Even so, it smashed the previous hailstone record of 7 inches (17.8 cm) diameter, collected in southern Nebraska in June 2003. The world record for the heaviest hailstone belongs to Bangladesh, with a stone collected in April 1986 that weighed 2.25 lb (1.02 kg).

U.S. tornadoes
On July 25th, an EF-1 tornado touched down in Bronx County, New York, marking only the second ever recorded in the Bronx. On July 26th, an EF-3 tornado hit rural Sheridan County, Montana, killing two. This ties as the deadliest tornado in Montana history, and only the fourth EF-3 or stronger tornado ever observed in the state.

La Niña intensifies to moderate strength
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.1°C below average by August 16, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.0°C below average (as of August 8.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 1.0°C below average. SSTs 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. La Niña conditions must be present for several months before this will be officially classified as a La Niña event, but it is highly likely that a full-fledged La Niña event lasting at least seven more months has arrived. We started out the year with a strong El Niño, so it may seem surprising that we have transitioned La Niña so quickly, However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

It is well-known that both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to increase during La Niña events. However, as I discussed in a post in June, since 1995, neutral years (when neither an El Niño or La Niña are present) have had Atlantic hurricane activity equal to La Niña years. The last time we had a strong El Niño event followed by a La Niña event in the same year, in 1998, we had a Atlantic hurricane season 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. I'm thinking this year's season may be similar, though four or more intense hurricanes are a good bet due to the record warm SSTs.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of August, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 will probably end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

July 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in July 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Relatively cool weather occurred this July in the Arctic, compared to 2007, when the record low was set. Ice volume was at a record low for July, though, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. On August 16, the fabled Northwest Passage was just a day or two from melting open, and will probably be open for navigation during most of late August and all of September.

Jeff Masters

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1798. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


I don't care what the GFS thinks. Look at this...haven't seen this kind of focusing in octants 1 and 2 in the entire archive since 1974 when it began. We have been right. It has been hanging in our area of the world ONLY. Not horridly strong but it is there. We have been right on that so far. We'll wait and see if the storms show up. There are other things besides the MJO that cause hurricanes in the Atlantic.



Maybe some people do care what the GFS thinks. Don't you put GFS model run frames on here? What's the difference? Honest question.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Levi32:


I don't care what the GFS thinks. Look at this...haven't seen this kind of focusing in octants 1 and 2 in the entire archive since 1974 when it began. We have been right. It has been hanging in our area of the world ONLY. Not horridly strong but it is there. We have been right on that so far. We'll wait and see if the storms show up. There are other things besides the MJO that cause hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Butterfly Effect?
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1796. Levi32
Again, I will direct you guys to 2005 when the MJO was NEUTRAL and not even focused in octants 1 and 2 like this year.....and um we had the worst season in history. This isn't the end all be all. As far as the MJO we're in better shape than 2005.

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Quoting Patrap:
or..


Reality vs Models.


Sometimes they can blend.

In reality the season begins to ramp up in late August and the models show that happening.

Fact-casters?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24488
Quoting Levi32:


I don't care what the GFS thinks. Look at this...haven't seen this kind of focusing in octants 1 and 2 in the entire archive since 1974 when it began. We have been right. It has been hanging in our area of the world ONLY. Not horridly strong but it is there. We have been right on that so far. We'll wait and see if the storms show up. There are other things besides the MJO that cause or prevent hurricanes in the Atlantic.



and all of those other factors are clearly not aligned for development and haven't been.
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1792. Vero1
Quoting Hurricanes101:


again that is the wave ahead of the wave everyone is watching


It is the only Wave off of Africa.

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1790. Levi32
Quoting IKE:


Sorry Levi...I don't agree. Just my opinion.

If this forecast is an upward motion in the Atlantic I must be blind....that is through August 31st....



I don't care what the GFS thinks. Look at this...haven't seen this kind of focusing in octants 1 and 2 in the entire archive since 1974 when it began. We have been right. It has been hanging in our area of the world ONLY. Not horridly strong but it is there. We have been right on that so far. We'll wait and see if the storms show up. There are other things besides the MJO that cause or prevent hurricanes in the Atlantic.

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1789. Patrap
or..


Reality vs Models.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1788. Levi32
Quoting CCkid00:

Levi...........what is YOUR intake on ExTD5? where do you think it is going inland and do you think it will be a td? thanks!


I don't think there's any room for debate on the track anymore it looks like a beeline for just north of the Mississippi. It's not undergoing any rapid feedback but it's borderline TD right now. They will probably not classify it. Won't matter though because if it doesn't get a name it doesn't add to the number either way.
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Ah the infinite war..

Facts vs where is it?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24488
1786. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


No, but we were right about the MJO. The storms will come, and if they don't then hey we'll evaluate where we were wrong but the MJO we have been right on.


Sorry Levi...I don't agree. Just my opinion.

If this forecast is an upward motion in the Atlantic I must be blind....that is through August 31st....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Levi32:


Yes they are. EWP will show a consistent time-line progression of the MJO on its typical 40-day cycle. It's nothing but an extrapolation. Nothing.


I meant the forecast product not the forecasting system.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting IKE:


What happened to the strong MJO in this basin?


Who cares about the MJO Its not the only factor in cyclogenis. All it takes is one bad storm to make a bad year. Get off the downcasting would ya. Geez
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Feels Good over their in TX uh?
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1782. Levi32
Find a year in here that has had a more focused MJO in octants 1 and 2 than this year since 1974. You won't find one.
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Quoting Levi32:


No. The heat is still there. You won't see any long-lasting downward MJO bursts the rest of the season. Upward motion is still hanging near the Atlantic more than any other year since 1974. The only reason you're saying it isn't is because there haven't been a big number of storms to prove it.


Well I didn't say there isn't any heat, I said it's not being focused like the tri-pole was supposed to do. Also, I understand that the MJO has been in the Atlantic for a while. It just hasn't been as strong as some were proclaiming it would and it hasn't produced as many storms as some said it would.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1779. Levi32
Quoting IKE:


What happened to the strong MJO in this basin?


Go look at post #1771.
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1777. CCkid00
Quoting Levi32:


No. The heat is still there. You won't see any long-lasting downward MJO bursts the rest of the season. Upward motion is still hanging near the Atlantic more than any other year since 1974. The only reason you're saying it isn't is because there haven't been a big number of storms to prove it.

Levi...........what is YOUR intake on ExTD5? where do you think it is going inland and do you think it will be a td? thanks!
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Quoting Levi32:
For reference.....

June-September 2005:



Last 90 days:



It's been focused in octants 1 and 2 all summer....


then where are the storms? again I was hearing from April to June about how when the MJO went upward in the Atlantic the storms would form
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1775. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


but we have had the upward motion for most of the time since July 1st and all I kept hearing in June was wait until the MJO goes to an upward motion

So the MJO apparently isn't enough


No, but we were right about the MJO. The storms will come, and if they don't then hey we'll evaluate where we were wrong but the MJO we have been right on.
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1774. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The CFS and GFS aren't too different from the EWP.


Yes they are. EWP will show a consistent time-line progression of the MJO on its typical 40-day cycle. It's nothing but an extrapolation. Nothing.
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Thought this was a cool link for anyone interestedLink
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Quoting Levi32:


No. The heat is still there. You won't see any long-lasting downward MJO bursts the rest of the season. Upward motion is still hanging near the Atlantic more than any other year since 1974. The only reason you're saying it isn't is because there haven't been a big number of storms to prove it.


but we have had the upward motion for most of the time since July 1st and all I kept hearing in June was wait until the MJO goes to an upward motion

So the MJO apparently isn't enough
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1771. Levi32
For reference.....

June-September 2005:



Last 90 days:



It's been focused in octants 1 and 2 all summer....
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1769. Patrap
Quoting gulfbreeze:
What no NO Radar Mr. Radar man!!



No Mr. required.

Once you learn how to post one,,feel free.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1768. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


We lost the tri-pole. No focus of heat.

The whole basin is warm and that distorts it.



No. The heat is still there. You won't see any long-lasting downward MJO bursts the rest of the season. Upward motion is still hanging near the Atlantic more than any other year since 1974. The only reason you're saying it isn't is because there haven't been a big number of storms to prove it.
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1767. ncstorm
For a storm to form in the GOM TWICE, I am not impressed at all! But I can see this "thunderstorm" exiting off into the eastern atlantic around the same time frame of maybe our potential CV storm starts to recurve which could lead to a big blow up off the SE coast.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1764. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Lol it will never do that. Why use empirical propagation it's not a model it's a trend extrapolator of what the MJO "should" do in a perfectly normal sitation.

It isn't really strong but never goes away on the CFS, and that's how it should be.



What happened to the strong MJO in this basin?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Patrap:
Folks will always downplay what dosent or isnt affecting them directly, here on the blogs.

Its az sure as a Sunrise
What no NO Radar Mr. Radar man!!
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REMEMBER ALL IT TAKES IS 1 GOOD ONE TO MAKE A AWESOME SEASON
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol it will never do that. Why use empirical propagation it's not a model it's a trend extrapolator of what the MJO "should" do in a perfectly normal sitation.


The CFS and GFS aren't too different from the EWP.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946


that should wash some oil off hope every one gets inside
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Quoting IKE:


Whatever happened to...."it's going to keep coming back to the ATL because this is where all of the heat is"?????

What happened to that theory?


We lost the tri-pole. No focus of heat.

The whole basin is warm and that distorts it.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1758. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The ever elusive MJO...



Lol it will never do that. Why use empirical propagation it's not a model it's a trend extrapolator of what the MJO "should" do in a perfectly normal sitation.

It isn't really strong but never goes away on the CFS, and that's how it should be.

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1743 - yeah and here on the north shore as well. Pretty green sky right now in Mandeville...
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS...ALSO CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A
LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS ALSO EAST OF THE AXIS DUE TO A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SUPPRESSING CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 18N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 26W. THE ACTIVITY S OF 14N IS
ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE ITCZ.


not good for a tropical wave..
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SUPPRESSING CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS


again that is the wave ahead of the wave everyone is watching
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1755. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1754. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Hard right

Looks like something scared it away from going into the Atlantic.



Whatever happened to...."it's going to keep coming back to the ATL because this is where all of the heat is"?????

What happened to that theory?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I hope many realize that we had a positive MJO for most of July and the 1st part of august and it got us basically nothing

Again the MJO still isnt the be all end all either
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Quoting DestinJeff:


difference is that with Tropical Forecasting we are more willing to accept the theory that the season can forecast, unlike normal weather where all we accept the 7 day forecast as the far end of reasonable skill... and we all agree that is more about fancy graphics than anything else.


I certainly don't agree...and there are thousands of professional meteorologists steeped in knowledge of math, physics, and the earth sciences who would also disagree with you that their trade is "more about fancy graphics than anything else".

Tsk, tsk...
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exTD5's forward motion remained nearly the same* at 8.3mph(13km/h), and its most recent heading was west of NorthWest or north of WestNorthWest: close enough to call it either one.
- Date - - Time - - - - Location
16Aug 12amGMT - 30.7N85.3W
16Aug 06amGMT - 29.7N85.8W
16Aug 12pmGMT - 29.2N86.1W * was 29.4N
16Aug 06pmGMT - 29.0N86.8W
17Aug 12amGMT - 29.4N87.5W
* NHC has once again reconsidered&altered exTD5's path

Copy&paste 30.7N85.3W-29.7N85.8W, 29.7N85.8W-29.2N86.1W, 29.2N86.1W-29.0N86.8W, 29.0N86.8W-29.4N87.5W, msy, apf into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.

Given it's speed of movement and its rate of northward curvature, exTD5 should make landfall in Alabama in maybe as little as 6hours.
Unless exTD5 is in a LOT better shape than it appears, the NHC should downgrade it from red to yellow. There's an extremely low chance that it will become a TropicalDepression in 6-or-so hours.
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Quoting SirCane:
This Hurricane season is one where September and October could be very active instead of August and September. I sure wouldn't be getting my guard down.

Yes, I think that as well.
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1748. Patrap
Weeeeeeeeeeeee...

00Z




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.