ex-TD 5 regenerating; globe has 2nd or 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system has enough spin to regenerate into a tropical depression later today or early Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense but disorganized thunderstorms lies over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity is intensifying and growing more organized. A center of circulation is becoming more defined about 60 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida. Strong upper-level winds out of the northeast are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over ex-TD 5, and this shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the northern side of the center of circulation. Thus, I expect that heavy thunderstorms will be slow to develop over land today. By Tuesday, ex-TD 5 should be able to intensify into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds, and heavy rains should spread across the entire Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. All of the models bring ex-TD 5 back ashore over Louisiana on Tuesday, and it is unlikely the storm will get sustained winds stronger than 50 mph. The GFDL model predicts ex-TD 5 will stay below tropical storm strength, while the HWRF predicts a 45-mph tropical storm at landfall on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters will fly into ex-TD 5 this afternoon to see if it has regenerated into a tropical depression. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models continue to predict a major pattern shift in the global atmospheric circulation late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and start to the Cape Verdes hurricane season. Most of the models predict a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras late this week.

Smoke clears from Moscow
Moderate westerly winds over the past few hours have cleared Moscow's air, bringing an end to a 42-hour period where smoke from persistent wildfires blanketed the city. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today, which is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls continued very hot temperatures and light and variable winds through Wednesday, as Russia's record heat wave continues. However, on Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure is expected to move through European Russia, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for July, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Second or fifth warmest July on record for the globe
July 2010 was the second warmest July on record, behind 1998, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). July was the first month since February that was not the warmest on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2010 the fifth warmest July on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - July, as the warmest such period on record. July 2010 global ocean temperatures were the fifth warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in July, according to University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), and the warmeest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS).

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from July 2010.

Russia, Finland, and Qatar set all time heat records
Three nations--Russia, Finland, and Qatar--recorded their hottest temperatures in history during July 2010. No nation set a coldest temperature of all time record.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old recrod for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) The source for the previous all-time records listed here is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt.

Seventeenth warmest July on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 17th warmest July in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to July, was the 27th warmest such period on record. Two states, Delaware and Rhode Island, had their warmest July on record. Fourteen other states had a top-ten warmest July on record, including nearly every state on the Atlantic East Coast. No state recorded a top-ten coldest July.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., July 2010 ranked as the 36th wettest July in the 116-year record. Four states--Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska--had a top ten wettest July on record. Only Louisiana had a top-ten driest July on record.


Figure 3. The record-setting hailstone of July 23, 2010, that fell on Vivian, South Dakota. Image credit: National Weather Service, South Dakota.

Record hailstone falls in South Dakota
A severe storm on July 23rd dropped hundreds of massive hailstones on the small town of Vivian, South Dakota. Local reports stated that every house in Vivian sustained some type of hail damage. One of the stones collected broke the U.S. record not only for the largest hailstone (in diameter) but also the heaviest. The stone measured 8 inches (20.3 cm) in diameter, 18.5 inches (47.0 cm) in circumference, and weighed 1.9375 lbs (0.89 kg). It was also reported that the hailstone was originally much larger, but the freezer it was stored in lost power for about five to six hours and the person who collected it kept opening the freezer door to show friends and relatives. Even so, it smashed the previous hailstone record of 7 inches (17.8 cm) diameter, collected in southern Nebraska in June 2003. The world record for the heaviest hailstone belongs to Bangladesh, with a stone collected in April 1986 that weighed 2.25 lb (1.02 kg).

U.S. tornadoes
On July 25th, an EF-1 tornado touched down in Bronx County, New York, marking only the second ever recorded in the Bronx. On July 26th, an EF-3 tornado hit rural Sheridan County, Montana, killing two. This ties as the deadliest tornado in Montana history, and only the fourth EF-3 or stronger tornado ever observed in the state.

La Niña intensifies to moderate strength
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.1°C below average by August 16, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.0°C below average (as of August 8.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 1.0°C below average. SSTs 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. La Niña conditions must be present for several months before this will be officially classified as a La Niña event, but it is highly likely that a full-fledged La Niña event lasting at least seven more months has arrived. We started out the year with a strong El Niño, so it may seem surprising that we have transitioned La Niña so quickly, However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

It is well-known that both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to increase during La Niña events. However, as I discussed in a post in June, since 1995, neutral years (when neither an El Niño or La Niña are present) have had Atlantic hurricane activity equal to La Niña years. The last time we had a strong El Niño event followed by a La Niña event in the same year, in 1998, we had a Atlantic hurricane season 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. I'm thinking this year's season may be similar, though four or more intense hurricanes are a good bet due to the record warm SSTs.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of August, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 will probably end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

July 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in July 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Relatively cool weather occurred this July in the Arctic, compared to 2007, when the record low was set. Ice volume was at a record low for July, though, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. On August 16, the fabled Northwest Passage was just a day or two from melting open, and will probably be open for navigation during most of late August and all of September.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2348 - 2298

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

It will be interesting to see how models react to the pattern change and if that could also be the reason they have been so off with the dynamics this year so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Night MIA

Interesting week ahead with the changes afoot.


LOL, I've been hearing the theme of "there are changes coming afoot" for the last few weeks. Theres that mood of "look at the AFrican train wave, its a'comin, its a'comin," but thankfully its been quiet.

I still think a ramp-up is possible this season. I just wish I could be an expert as to what's causing the SAL and cut-off ULLs, and see when they are going to go away. If we are still this quiet by late August-early September, then that's when I will start "downcasting" this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


They are the experts after all. XD
Yet they have me scratching my head on why PGI30L isn't a TW, eh... Maybe they are waiting for something.


They always tend to be slow on classifying tropical waves, in my experience.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2345. xcool
SW Caribbean GFS TOO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The wave west of PGI30L (the wave we are "excited" about tonight) was supposed to in theory absorb the SAL by helping moisten the environment ahead of PGI30L. But, maybe its not enough, maybe the SAL and moderate SSTs at the latitude of the Cape Verde Islands are making this struggle tonight.

It seems the SAL and cut-off ULLs have been suppressing the season so far.


Yes, but the GFS has been forecasting a major shift in the upper air pattern for the last several days. And current trends certainly suggest this. You see that upper low hanging near 21N 49W? That should be the last one in the basin for awhile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There's plenty of moisture in front of the system which will keep SAL away from the system. The system will also move WSW a bit as the subtropical ridge influences its steering, meaning that it will miss the bulk of the SAL. The cool SSTs will be the problem...not the SAL.


In above-posted images, I see a large tonuge of SAL to the west. Do you think its even remotely possible that the large circulation envelope of PGI30L could wrap in the tongue of SAL to its west? I am a little cautious about PGI30L developing eventually. Waiting for it to keep on fighting the SAL for the next couple of days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good night everyone!



Night MIA

Interesting week ahead with the changes afoot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


That is some intense SAL. I Don't see anything forming in that.


In this loop it almost looks looks like the dry air might get pinched from above.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Odd run, but the 00Z GFS NO RECURVATURE.. The first run to effect the East Coast in 2 days.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting KoritheMan:


I agree, the NHC bashing does tend to get annoying here. Granted, I've found myself disagreeing with them on occasion, but usually it's a relatively small disagreement. Rarely do I even find a reason to disagree with them at all.


I know, ive not seen what theyve seen many times. Its just every single time... they act like they arent paying attention. IT is their only job to watch the tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2334. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


I agree, the NHC bashing does tend to get annoying here. Granted, I've found myself disagreeing with them on occasion, but usually it's a relatively small disagreement. Rarely do I even find a reason to disagree with them at all.


They are the experts after all. XD
Yet they have me scratching my head on why PGI30L isn't a TW, eh... Maybe they are waiting for something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For the 3 supposed storms on the GFS run:

1,... 2...., 3 strikes you're out!..LOL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2330. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
264 hours. A recurvature trending much further west...possibly putting the NE at play. Part 2 follows.

Does the high ridge have a weakness in the high and then build back in, back and forth with model runs over the last few days with this possible CV storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


I just came on. I don't see how it won't be a problem. The low looked great on land and now it's being choked so there's no convection.


The wave west of PGI30L (the wave we are "excited" about tonight) was supposed to in theory absorb the SAL by helping moisten the environment ahead of PGI30L. But, maybe its not enough, maybe the SAL and moderate SSTs at the latitude of the Cape Verde Islands are making this struggle tonight.

It seems the SAL and cut-off ULLs have been suppressing the season so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2328. kramus
itsa nogood (test post)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
264 hours. A recurvature trending much further west...possibly putting the NE at play. Part 2 follows.



There was a huge kicker in the local weather pattern today. I am soooo interested to see what happens this week now that the Jet Pattern is changing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


They are getting insane.. him and reed. Every single time something kinda looks kinda good. The NHC is so stupid with there 8 to 10 years of gaining their phds...


I agree, the NHC bashing does tend to get annoying here. Granted, I've found myself disagreeing with them on occasion, but usually it's a relatively small disagreement. Rarely do I even find a reason to disagree with them at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sflawavedude:
whats with all the removed posts today? censorship??

Anyways shear bit ANOTHER storm!!! storms cant even develop when they have 2 tries at it! what a season...


Thank goodness. It would be wonderful if this happened for the rest of the year. :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
264 hours.. In between Bermuda and the USA, like Bill.. nice ridge developing north of it, but the rest of the run should have it slide through that weakness.. This run is a tad further west then the 18Z

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
sorry had to come back as you see everyone and jason look on the track for PGI-30L its not at 20N and it will not go at 20N maybe just mabe not untill 40-45W and may even in the caribbean when its at 20N

anyway here is the link

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


I just came on. I don't see how it won't be a problem. The low looked great on land and now it's being choked so there's no convection.
There's plenty of moisture in front of the system which will keep SAL away from the system. The system will also move WSW a bit as the subtropical ridge influences its steering, meaning that it will miss the bulk of the SAL. The cool SSTs will be the problem...not the SAL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
whats with all the removed posts today? censorship??

Anyways shear bit ANOTHER storm!!! storms cant even develop when they have 2 tries at it! what a season...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
The weak LLC of EXTD5 is weak and highly sheared tonight, very fragile. No reason to re-instate 05L ATM.
Quoting btwntx08:

yes we know everyone has RIP it lol



I am not saying it won't develop, just stating the obvious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
he has one for evere year may be


. jasoniscoolman2010x

. jasoniscoolman2009x

. jasoniscoolman2008x

. jasoniscoolman2007x

. jasoniscoolman2006x

. jasoniscoolman2005x



do i most go on?


I still don't get it... jk.. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
264 hours. A recurvature trending much further west...possibly putting the NE at play. Part 2 follows.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I explained earlier why SAL will not be a major problem...may not even be a problem at all.


I just came on. I don't see how it won't be a problem. The low looked great on land and now it's being choked so there's no convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


That is some intense SAL. I Don't see anything forming in that.


I personally think the models are being a little too quick in developing this wave, myself. I certainly expect genesis, but it will probably be gradual at first. As Miami said though, it's not because of the SAL. Cooler waters (but still 26C) will limit any significant development over the next 24 hours, IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

What's funny? ex-05L does not have sufficient organization to call this a tropical depression.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The LLC of EXTD5 is weak and highly sheared tonight, very fragile. No reason to re-instate 05L ATM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


That is some intense SAL. I Don't see anything forming in that.
I explained earlier why SAL will not be a major problem...may not even be a problem at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
he has one for evere year may be


. jasoniscoolman2010x

. jasoniscoolman2009x

. jasoniscoolman2008x

. jasoniscoolman2007x

. jasoniscoolman2006x

. jasoniscoolman2005x



do i most go on?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456


That is some intense SAL. I Don't see anything forming in that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2302. will45
Quoting scott39:
Im not Questioning the NHCs way of making decisions. Thier the experts. Im wondering why thier decision of not making L-5 a TD is met with such heated debate? If it met the criteria, it would have been labeled a TD.


ok NP i understand what you are saying now
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
2301. scott39
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Because the center is directly south of the AL, MS border. Convection is greatly displaced to the W tonight, and for the same reason our SEFL T-Storms were displaced to the west, a kicking ridge.
I worded my question wrong- look at post 2295
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Im not Questioning the NHCs way of making decisions. Thier the experts. Im wondering why thier decision of not making L-5 a TD is met with such heated debate? If it met the criteria, it would have been labeled a TD.


It's because a lot of people don't realize where the center actually is, away from all the pretty colors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
180 hours:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i dont think jasoniscoolman2010x looks at mode runs lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456

Viewing: 2348 - 2298

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron