TD 5 may redevelop over Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2010

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The remnants of Tropical Depression Five are still spinning over southwestern Georgia, and the storm is headed southwards towards the Gulf of Mexico, where redevelopment into a tropical depression could occur by Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense thunderstorms has developed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity continues to intensify and expand in areal coverage. Most of the heavy rain is offshore, but I expect heavy rains will spread to the Florida Panhandle late this afternoon. These heavy rains will likely spread to coastal regions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana by Monday, as the center of ex-TD 5 approaches the coast and the storm begins to wind up again. By Tuesday, the GFS and HWRF models predict that the center will move off the coast, and TD 5 will be reborn again. The system may have enough time over water to become a weak tropical storm before making landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning over Southeast Louisiana. Wind shear is currently low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, over the next three days, favoring re-development of TD 5. NHC is giving a 20% chance that TD 5 will regenerate into a tropical depression by 8am EDT Tuesday. I think the odds are higher than this, perhaps 40%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models have been predicting a major pattern shift in the global atmosphere late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and the start of the Cape Verdes hurricane season. The models have been consistently predicting a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting possible development of a tropical depression near the coast of Nicaragua or Honduras late this week.

Smoke envelops Moscow again
The favorable northerly winds that had blown in cooler air and kept smoke away from Moscow slackened today, as high pressure built in. The return of the high pressure ridge that has brought European Russia its worst heat wave in history means several more days of light and variable winds that will keep wildfire smoke over or near Moscow. Very hot weather at least 10°C (18°F) above average will also be rule, and temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today. This is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 30°C for the next five days. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia late this week, bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 by early next week.


Figure 2. Image from Friday by NASA's Aqua satellite showing smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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3188. HarleyStormDude52
8:13 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
It appears that we are getting a couple of thunder boomers here in SE now off the remnants TD5!!!!! this is a welcome relief!!!
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
3187. MrNatural
4:27 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
It looks like remnants of TD 5 are now beginning to move on a more westerly track. Also, still seems that most of the convection is still to the S & W of the COC.

Link
Member Since: July 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
3186. Waltanater
3:11 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
LOL! Yes 288 hours would suffice! Come to think of it, YES I WOULD also like to see where this storm would be on May 31st next year! LOL. Thanks.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3184. MiamiHurricanes09
2:50 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3183. MiamiHurricanes09
2:49 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
3169. MiamiHurricanes09 10:40 AM EDT on August 16, 2010
Good morning everyone!

Ex-05L looking good...Recon heads out at noon CDT, they arrive at 1 PM CDT.


The displaced convection to the SW is there but you can clearly see the "naked" COC south of the Panhandle in your post........Too close to land to properly wrap around IMHO.
The circulation appears to be around the NE periphery of the convection and drifting southward. So, it is almost nestled in the convection. The fact that it is so close to land won't help it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3180. rossclick
2:45 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
theres a new blog
Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
3179. MiamiHurricanes09
2:45 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Interesting 06z run from the GFS today. It develops PGI30L into a major, but then its outflow shears the tropical wave behind it. Then, when PGI30L is all gone, another tropical wave comes barreling through and develops into a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3178. weathermanwannabe
2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
3169. MiamiHurricanes09 10:40 AM EDT on August 16, 2010
Good morning everyone!

Ex-05L looking good...Recon heads out at noon CDT, they arrive at 1 PM CDT.


The displaced convection to the SW is there but you can clearly see the "naked" COC south of the Panhandle in your post........Too close to land to properly wrap around IMHO.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
3176. txsweetpea
2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REAMRKS: MISSIONS ON TCPOD 10-076 FOR 16/1800Z
AND 17/0600Z AND 1200Z ON THE REMNANTS OF TD #5
ARE STILL PLANNED TO BE FLOWN AT THIS TIME.


Thanks reed and Miami09!
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
3175. SomeRandomTexan
2:43 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
all the convection is displaced from the LLC...
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
3174. Thaale
2:42 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting Waltanater:
Are there any more recent model runs on that African wave? Will it still be something to watch? If so, I am interested in a 288 day GFS model run to see where it may be at that time, if anyone has that info.

Thanks much.

LOL, would you settle for 288 hours? That's 12 days.


384 hours (16 days):


Link to NOAA's GFS, GEFS, and other models:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
3172. reedzone
2:42 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting txsweetpea:
Is recon still on for today?


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REAMRKS: MISSIONS ON TCPOD 10-076 FOR 16/1800Z
AND 17/0600Z AND 1200Z ON THE REMNANTS OF TD #5
ARE STILL PLANNED TO BE FLOWN AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
3171. MiamiHurricanes09
2:41 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting txsweetpea:
Is recon still on for today?
Yes.

3. REAMRKS: MISSIONS ON TCPOD 10-076 FOR 16/1800Z
AND 17/0600Z AND 1200Z ON THE REMNANTS OF TD #5
ARE STILL PLANNED TO BE FLOWN AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3170. will45
2:41 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA GULF OF MEXICO - REMNENTS OF TD 05
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 29.5N 86.0W
E. 16/1700-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z- 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 17/0500Z
D. 29.5N 87.5W
E. 17/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
3169. MiamiHurricanes09
2:40 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Good morning everyone!

Ex-05L looking good...Recon heads out at noon CDT, they arrive at 1 PM CDT.



And of course, PGI30L continues organized nicely even after it emerged this morning. Fairly vigorous mid-level circulation associated with it.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3168. txsweetpea
2:39 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Is recon still on for today?
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
3167. SomeRandomTexan
2:39 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
what's up with the creeps trying to make a date on a weather site... seriously...
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
3165. LAlurker
2:38 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
StormW, or anyone else who feels qualified to answer. - 2 questions -
1. Given that the most active convection is normally found in the NE quandrant of a North moving storm, would you expect the (right front quadrant) SW side of a South moving storm to be the most active?
2. With very little data history on tropical systems moving south into offshore waters in the Gulf of Mexico, what is your confidence in the models' forecasts in this situation, or does the lack of history really matter with today's global models?
Thanks,
Back to Lurk mode.
3164. HouGalv08
2:38 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting divdog:
would have to go alot more west than predicted to cause problems in houston. you should be ok this time.
See StormW's blog. If it makes it south of 28deg north, the emphasis will shift westward.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 359
3163. JRnOldsmar
2:38 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS FEATURING AL05 AUGUST 16, 2010 ISSUED 10:00 A.M.


Great update. Thanks, StormW.
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
3160. SaintPatrick
2:35 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting alaina1085:

Ha! My sisters band just played there saturday night. I didnt go tho, had my son.


Well! I have a sitter for my son whenever you're ready... lol
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
3159. reedzone
2:35 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting thermoclined:
looks like the road runner ...lol


Wind shear of 20 knots from the edgte of the anticyclone that is in LA is shearing the system a bit, displacing the convection southwest.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
3157. divdog
2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting HouGalv08:
Looks more like a central LA to mid TX coast landfall. Could make the weather here in Houston a bit interesting towards the middle to late part of the week. I've seen a lot of weak storms in 35 years living in Houston that hang around produce floods almost of biblical proportions.
would have to go alot more west than predicted to cause problems in houston. you should be ok this time.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
3156. Waltanater
2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Are there any more recent model runs on that African wave? Will it still be something to watch? If so, I am interested in a 288 day GFS model run to see where it may be at that time, if anyone has that info.

Thanks much.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3155. thermoclined
2:33 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Over the last few frames, the LLC has tightened up...

looks like the road runner ...lol
Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
3154. will45
2:33 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
looking at buoys near the area if things dont change i doubt recon will find winds hgigher than a depression if they find a closed low. winds have been a prob with so far except in thunderstorms. Tremendous rains can still be the worst problem with x5
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
3153. breald
2:32 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Is it me or do these storms take longer to develop then in the past years? I don't see how we will get the numbers they are calling for. But that is a very uneducated opinion.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
3152. alaina1085
2:31 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting SaintPatrick:


no, not yet. waiting on you to tell me when you have a free day to go >_^

Ha! My sisters band just played there saturday night. I didnt go tho, had my son.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
3151. HouGalv08
2:31 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Looks more like a central LA to mid TX coast landfall. Could make the weather here in Houston a bit interesting towards the middle to late part of the week. I've seen a lot of weak storms in 35 years living in Houston that hang around produce floods almost of biblical proportions.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 359
3150. Waltanater
2:31 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Are there any more recent model runs on that African wave? Will it still be something to watch? If so, I am interested in a 288 day GFS model run to see where it may be at that time, if anyone has that info.

Thanks much.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3149. belizewunderfan
2:30 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Thanks for sharing your synopsis Storm W - any reason to "watch" the little flare ups in the Carribbean Sea?
Member Since: June 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
3148. reedzone
2:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Over the last few frames, the LLC has tightened up...

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
3147. SaintPatrick
2:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting alaina1085:

Just got back from mine as well. Have you checked out the tiki hut yet?


no, not yet. waiting on you to tell me when you have a free day to go >_^
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
3146. Neapolitan
2:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Great work as always usual, Storm. :-) Thanks...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13536
3145. brla61
2:28 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Thanks Storm, great analysis!
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
3144. Hardcoreweather2010
2:26 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Looks like the Bam D is having some issues in the latest run from the NHC

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
3143. Tropicaddict
2:25 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
Quoting StormW:


No...I think MS is ok. Low and mid level steering doesn't support MS landfall:






Thanks Storm! :)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
3142. SeniorPoppy
2:25 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
EX td05 not looking impressive at all. It loves the land, not the sea.
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
3141. reedzone
2:25 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
I checked the EURO, I didn't see 13 storms, just 1 or 2.. Where are you all seeing 13 storms?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
3140. Cotillion
2:25 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
That's around where that band of deepish convection is, just off the north coast of Panama. Part of a tropical wave according to the 06z Surface Analysis.


Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3138. alaina1085
2:24 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
This is taken from the blog of my local weather station website.

"Tropical Update: As mentioned above, the remnants of Tropical Depression 5 have worked their way back into the Gulf of Mexico near Panama City. They are poorly organized, but are expected to become better organized later today/tonight.


A few of the forecast models want to develop the remnants back into a tropical depression as soon as tonight as it slowly moves to the west. At this time, this does not seem that significant strengthening is likely thanks to some strong wind shear in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. This wind shear would help to keep the storm poorly organized. However, this could change, so keep a watch on this system over the next few days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) feels that there will be a small window of opportuntiy for some favorable conditions to develop, and is giving this a high chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical depression once again in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Elsewhere...the tropics are pretty quiet other than a few tropical waves moving across the open Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, tropical system formation is not expected through Tuesday."

http://www.wbrz.com/blog-entries/remnants-of-td-5-making-a-return-to-south-louisiana/
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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