Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting scott39:
That would allow time for developing.


That it would. Looks like I might be getting a tropical storm in a few days.
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2974. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Depends on the model. Some take it to around 27N.
That would allow time for developing.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
2973. xcool


nam 06z
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting scott39:
How far S do the models have EXTD5 dropping into the GOM lattitude wise, before going W?


Depends on the model. Some take it to around 27N.
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2971. IKE
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I didn't know hurricanes could form on land. Except,of course that one that hit Oklahoma City.


Bertha in 1988 did, in our very state, in fact. Then again, it was no doubt aided by Pontchartrain.

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2969. scott39
How far S do the models have EXTD5 dropping into the GOM lattitude wise, before going W?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I didn't know hurricanes could form on land. Except,of course that one that hit Oklahoma City.


Erin? I believe? Well I can guarantee you they can deepen quickly right off the coast. Ah good times good times. Lol.
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Quoting robj144:
Since it's dead and there aren't many on here. How many hurricanes have you guys been through? I've been through Gloria in 1986, Frances and Jeane in 2004, Katrina (weak FL landfall) and Wilma in 2005. Wilma was by far the worst, but I lost power for almost a week in Wilma and in Frances.


Andrew - 1992
Hermine - 1998
Georges - 1998
Tropical Depression Nine - 2000
Allison - 2001
Bertha - 2002
Isidore - 2002
Lili - 2002
Bill - 2003
Ivan - 2004
Matthew - 2004
Cindy - 2005
Katrina - 2005
Rita - 2005
Fay - 2008
Gustav - 2008
Ike - 2008
Bonnie - 2010
Tropical Depression Five - 2010

By far the most notable as Gustav. Baton Rouge was NOT prepared for what it saw.
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2966. IKE
Quoting Eagle101:


Good Morning Ike...was woke up about an hour ago from the deluge...2 plus inches doppler indicated...



Looks like TD5 is dropping south. I may get some here shortly too...dropping down from lower Alabama...

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ARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE W CENTRAL COAST OF
FLORIDA W-NW INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE ELONGATED LOW PRES
SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING...WITH PRES
GRADIENT TO THE S YIELDING SW TO W WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE FAR
N CENTRAL AND NE GULF PER RECENT OBS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES.
SEA ACROSS THIS AREA HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP...NOW AT 2-3 FT.
ELSEWHERE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS WITHIN THE RIDGE AND E TO SE WINDS 10-15 KT S
AND SW SECTIONS...AND 15-20 KT ALONG THE N AND NW COAST OF THE
YUCATAN WHERE SEAS WERE RUNNING 3-4 FT.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN NEXT 30 HOURS AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT LOW PRES INTO THE NE GULF COASTS MON MORNING THEN DRIFT IT
W AND ACROSS SE LOUISIANA THROUGH TUE EVENING BEFORE TURNING NW
AND COMPLETELY INLAND ACROSS SW LA TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW AND DEEPENS IT MON
NIGHT INTO TUE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CANADIAN IS SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR AND A BIT FARTHER S IN TRAJECTORY WHILE REMAINDER OF
MODELS HAVE SIMILAR MOTION BUT DO NOT SHOW NEAR THE
STRENGTHENING. THIS LOW IS PERSISTING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND WILL MOVE SW THEN W WITHIN THE INNER PERIPHERY OF THIS
UPPER ANTICYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER WATER. WE ARE MONITORING THIS
SYSTEM DURING ITS EVOLUTION NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE ATTM UNTIL SOME DEFINITIVE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN STLT OR RADAR. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH
15-20 KT WINDS ON S AND SE QUADS OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL GULF MON THROUGH TUE.
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Kind of what it looked like.



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2962. scott39
Early Goodmorning, Ive never seen the NHC put a circle on all land before with that high of a % !
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
2961. robj144
I'm out... later.
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2960. robj144
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL

This image makes Florida look so insignificant.

Floyd 1999



Due to it's shear size, that's still one of the most impressive satellite pics I've seen. Of course, when Wilma was it's peak it was a close second.
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LOL

This image makes Florida look so insignificant.

Floyd 1999

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2956. robj144
Quoting HurricaneDanielle:


I'm from Dade.


Were you there for Andrew?
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Quoting robj144:
Since it's dead and there aren't many on here. How many hurricanes have you guys been through? I've been through Gloria in 1986, Frances and Jeane in 2004, Katrina (weak FL landfall) and Wilma in 2005. Wilma was by far the worst, but I lost power for almost a week in Wilma and in Frances.


TS Claudette 1979
TS Elena 1979
TS Chris 1982
Hurricane Alicia 1983
Hurricane Danny 1985
Hurricane Juan 1985
Hurricane Bonnie 1986
TS 1 1987
TS Allison 1989
Hurricane Chantal 1989
Hurricane Jerry 1989
TS Allison 2001
TD Ivan 2004
RITA
HUMBERTO
TS Edouard 2008
IKE...

I'm tired. Lol.
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Quoting IKE:
Complete 00Z ECMWF... through August 25th. Puts X-TD5 in the GOM Tuesday as a 1008 mb low. Shows the system in the eastern ATL, but is weaker on this run and is much weaker then the GFS, which I think may be suffering from convective feedback.


Good Morning Ike...was woke up about an hour ago from the deluge...2 plus inches doppler indicated...

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2953. robj144
Quoting HurricaneDanielle:


I'm from Dade.


Dade?! I spit on Dade county. :) Just kidding.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Floyd was a nightmare in NE NJ. We had 13' of water in our center of town. It was surreal. I have some old video of it and I STILL cant believe how bad it was to this day.

I was cleaning up for a month straight after that.

Ugh.


Yeah, Floyd was really notorious for its flooding, that's its legacy, flooding from eastern NC all the way up the east coast. That's because it was a gigantic tropical circulation clashing with a gigantic cold front.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Quoting IKE:
Complete 00Z ECMWF... through August 25th. Puts X-TD5 in the GOM Tuesday as a 1008 mb low. Shows the system in the eastern ATL, but is weaker on this run and is much weaker then the GFS, which I think may be suffering from convective feedback.


Convective feedback is when convection on a model moves a low pressure area that should not be moved by the convection.

At least thats the winter definition. Not sure the same rules apply here.
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2950. robj144
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Floyd was a nightmare in NE NJ. We had 13' of water in our center of town. It was surreal. I have some old video of it and I STILL cant believe how bad it was to this day.

I was cleaning up for a month straight after that.

Ugh.


That's crazy. It would have been way worse for FLA if it stayed on course. It was the size of Texas and the windfield was enormous. It was a beast.
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Quoting robj144:
By the way, Floyd scared the crap out of me before it took that unexpected turn up your way. That thing was a monster borderline cat 5 storm a couple hundred miles south east of FLA and it was heading directly for Palm Beach county. That would have been mass destruction.


Floyd was a nightmare in NE NJ. We had 13' of water in our center of town. It was surreal. I have some old video of it and I STILL cant believe how bad it was to this day.

I was cleaning up for a month straight after that.

Ugh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2948. IKE
Complete 00Z ECMWF... through August 25th. Puts X-TD5 in the GOM Tuesday as a 1008 mb low. Shows the system in the eastern ATL, but is weaker on this run and is much weaker then the GFS, which I think may be suffering from convective feedback.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Thats pretty cool!

There's quite a lot of other folks from Palm Beach county on here.



Awwww, I feel left out. Where are my peeps from NC?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Quoting robj144:


You felt Charley in West Palm? I don't remember it really affecting Delray/Boca at all really.


Yeah, somehow we had either some wicked straight line winds from an outer band or a possible tornado/waterspout one night that sent my lawn chairs flying through my neighbors window.
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2945. robj144
By the way, Floyd scared the crap out of me before it took that unexpected turn up your way. That thing was a monster borderline cat 5 storm a couple hundred miles south east of FLA and it was heading directly for Palm Beach county. That would have been mass destruction.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


pffffhhhhhhh...(spitting out the mouthwash I am using). Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?????? A tropical weather outlook at 3 AM EDT instead of 2? 20% chance of it coming back? TD 5, you are annoying, LOL!

Guess I better take the idea of TD 5 regenerating more seriously. I hope this doesnt' keep looping around and become the next Karen 2007? Or is this the remenants of Karen here, LOL?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Quoting robj144:


I'm in Delray.


Thats pretty cool!

There's quite a lot of other folks from Palm Beach county on here.

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2941. robj144
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Off the top of my head...

Floyd (NJ) 1999

Charley 2004

Jeanne 2004

Frances 2004

Wilma 2005

Fay 2008

Lost power for 13 days with Jeanne. Had 7' of water in my basement for Floyd and in Wilma the house sustained a good sized palm being blown onto the roof. Frances blew the windows in and Charley produced what seems like a tornado near our house.


You felt Charley in West Palm? I don't remember it really affecting Delray/Boca at all really.
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2940. robj144
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yep, was born in Louisiana and was raised and grew up in NJ until 2003 when I moved down to WPB FL.


I'm in Delray.
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A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE MIX FOR THE SOUTHEAST AS REMNANT
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 INTERACTS WITH A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SINKS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE DYNAMICS
AT THE UPPER-LEVELS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENSURING THE GULF COAST STATES WILL GET A WET START TO THE
WORK WEEK.
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2938. robj144
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Off the top of my head...

Floyd (NJ) 1999

Charley 2004

Jeanne 2004

Frances 2004

Wilma 2005

Fay 2008

Lost power for 13 days with Jeanne. Had 7' of water in my basement for Floyd and in Wilma the house sustained a good sized palm being blown onto the roof. Frances blew the windows in and Charley produced what seems like a tornado near our house.


I forgot about Fay because it was a nothing storm for me. Yeah 2004 and 2005 were crazy. In Gloria I also lost power for a week too.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Sounds like you moved from living in the northeast to moving to Florida by the storms you listed experiencing.


Yep, was born in Louisiana and was raised and grew up in NJ until 2003 when I moved down to WPB FL.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Off the top of my head...

Floyd (NJ) 1999

Charley 2004

Jeanne 2004

Frances 2004

Wilma 2005

Fay 2008

Lost power for 13 days with Jeanne. Had 7' of water in my basement for Floyd and in Wilma the house sustained a good sized palm being blown onto the roof.


Sounds like you moved from living in the northeast to moving to Florida by the storms you listed experiencing.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
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2933. xcool
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 15W/16W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 15W-17W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N50W TO 9N44W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO WEST AFRICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-75W.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting robj144:
Since it's dead and there aren't many on here. How many hurricanes have you guys been through? I've been through Gloria in 1986, Frances and Jeane in 2004, Katrina (weak FL landfall) and Wilma in 2005. Wilma was by far the worst, but I lost power for almost a week in Wilma and in Frances.

Off the top of my head...

Floyd (NJ) 1999

Charley 2004

Jeanne 2004

Frances 2004

Wilma 2005

Fay 2008

Lost power for 13 days with Jeanne. Had 7' of water in my basement for Floyd and in Wilma the house sustained a good sized palm being blown onto the roof. Frances blew the windows in and Charley produced what seems like a tornado near our house.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:
Since it's dead and there aren't many on here. How many hurricanes have you guys been through? I've been through Gloria in 1986, Frances and Jeane in 2004, Katrina (weak FL landfall) and Wilma in 2005. Wilma was by far the worst, but I lost power for almost a week in Wilma and in Frances.


Hugo in 1989 (was a toddler and don't remember it, my family was living in the Appalachians in NC and told me stories about it).

Fran in 1996 (was a 3rd grader, scared the crap out of me 'cause I didn't know much about hurricanes or weather back then. My family was living in Raleigh NC when the eye hit us directly as a cat. 1)

That's really it, just two. Gotten lucky here in Raleigh since Fran. Bonnie 1998, Dennis 1999, Floyd 1999, Isabel 2003, Charley 2004, Ophelia 2005, Ernesto 2006, and Hanna 2008 as the most severe weather with those past just to the east of us.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
2930. robj144
Since it's dead and there aren't many on here. How many hurricanes have you guys been through? I've been through Gloria in 1986, Frances and Jeane in 2004, Katrina (weak FL landfall) and Wilma in 2005. Wilma was by far the worst, but I lost power for almost a week in Wilma and in Frances.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


When you look through the models, ex TD 5 hangs around forever.

See the low on this 300 hour gfs? Near NC/VA? That is ex TD 5. The GFS has the system take a dip in the Gulf, hang around New Orleans, and then move at a walking pace across Mississippi, northern AL, GA, SC and NC. As in sloooooow. It literally appears to be attracting Cape Verde hurricane 2 to NC!



Aaaaah, go away TD 5, you're so annoying, LOL!
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You don't think they are?


No, I am watching it, but just casually and just for the record (I keep a personal journal of Atlantic tropical cyclones from there very beginning to very end).

I think there's a slight opportunity it could come back in the Gulf, but right now, its has merged with a backdoor cold front over the eastern US. If it doesn't become diffuse and indistinct along the front, it could be interesting once again. But, I want to see it back in the Gulf as a distinct entity before jumping on with the idea that it'll come back in the Gulf.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
2926. robj144
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Isabel of 2003 was a very interesting system. One that didnt play by the rules when it became annular. It basically created it's own environment.

Havent seen many annular hurricanes since Isabel. Felix of 2007 was one.



Also, hurricane epsilon was annular.

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.