Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

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cant get the image to post but we're gettin hammered with a thunderstom here in Nawlins right now...
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PGI28L

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Quoting DestinJeff:


It was OFO earlier this morning, but as it happens, nothing changed anyway.

Oh ok, well, keep an eye on it for us. We don't need any more mischief around here again with that chart changing up and all. lol
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Quoting StormW:


I'll put it this way, again...I don't trust any model run past 72-96 hours, let alone the GFS. The GFS has always had a poleward bias, at least as long as I can remember.


Storm, I know very little about weather forecasting, but is it fair to say that one of the primary elements in learning to forecast-- is that you start by forecasting events that are in the near future, and work out from there?

Somehow with all these models and longrange forecasts available to the average person, I think people may start to get the wrong idea about how the science works here.
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Forget the systems shown here, too far out to pay attention to, but look how at 384 hours the 1012mb isobar dominates the tropics. Not a good sign as we head into the peak of the season.

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Quoting DestinJeff:
Looks like Crab Island plans are 86d
maybe tomorrow will be better than today .. need a few more weeks of crab island time before the rodeo starts.
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Quoting NHCstevehayward:
I hear a lot of talk about "Earl" ? Aren't we getting a head of ourselves folks?
Yes, lol. But based on the 12z run of the GFS, we would reach "Earl" with the Cape Verde-type development of the tropical wave near central/western Africa.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Perhaps you haven't been privy to a little something we call "The Chart"



SARCASM FLAG: ON

You finally found it! What a relief!
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Well, cyclones are the earth's A/C system... and the South is hotter than ever. There's a lot of energy for TD5 to exchange.

And this thing should have RIPd like three days ago.

So yeah, if it doesn't fall apart quick there could be unimaginable flooding.
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Quoting btwntx08:

yes i know that


so what was your point earlier? I was talking about Erin weirdly intensifying over land, even forming an 'eye' when in Oklahoma
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Sea Surface Temperatures...30C covers almost the whole Gulf:



Sea Surface Temperatures off South America are in the 50s
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Perhaps you haven't been privy to a little something we call "The Chart"



SARCASM FLAG: ON


The Chart of DOOM!
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Good Afternoon!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You guys do realize that there is an actual National Hurricane Center worker on this blog?

There's someone from the NHC? I want his autograph! XD
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Near Real-Time Aqua/Terra Satellite Image of ex-05L.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so far belizeit the nam model is holding true with our caribean system
do you have a link to it ? I have a new computer
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Quoting reedzone:


It's great to have a person like you on here. Sometimes I disagree the judgments you guys make on classifications, but overall, you guys are the experts. What's your take on the remnants of TD5?


Worse case scenario comes off shore south to 28 heads west towards Houston rapidly intensifying along the way according to JB.
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Quoting kramus:
Why do they let you modify your own posts but not other people's posts?


Uh....how about this.......THEIR NOT YOUR POSTS! Why, in the world, should you be allowed to go into other people's posts and change things or add things? That's.....well, that's just ridiculous.
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Quoting NHCstevehayward:
I hear a lot of talk about "Earl" ? Aren't we getting a head of ourselves folks?


Don't we need a Danielle before we have an Earl?
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Quoting sporteguy03:


This bad boy effected Florida 6 years ago on this date.


And what a day it was....

Charley's Wrath and Aftermath
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Wow, just saw this!

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Quoting btwntx08:

actually its off the coast


talking about Erin in 2007 actually. And the centre of exTD5 is just north of Mobile.
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Quoting IKE:


Staying dry inside.
We somehow managed to stay dry on the beach so far, but looks like you're getting smacked again right about now. Should be clear for a while behind it...
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Quoting asgolfr999:
Although the thought of a low moving inland and then doing a 180 and popping right back out again is kind of unusual, even to the point of not being believable, who says it can't happen?

If you like at this "system low" now and over the past few days you will notice, or at least I do, that it pushed in in the lower MS region and is now moving in a direction over north Mobile which means that it has to have turned in a direction that is close enough to 180 to at least make the scenario believable.

As for discounting people for getting forecasts wrong I would say the following:-

1. Most here get em wrong, that's the nature of the beast.

2. Blog = opinion, you're supposed to be invited to give an opinion, not villified for doing so.

3. Don't care if you agree or not quite frankly, the blogger is not being rewarded based on your assessment of their abilities.

4. For God's sake live and let live. Who gives a flying fig, just participate and enjoy!
Remember Hurricane Danny i believe in '85. Thats what he did
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Those sea surface temperatures scare the heck out of me.
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Quoting calder:


And intensified way over land - was amazing to watch.


Actually its just off the coast over extremely hot (the hottest on the Earth atm) SSTs. If you get a slow mover like the GFS is showing just off the coast your bound for trouble.
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Quoting NHCstevehayward:
I hear a lot of talk about "Earl" ? Aren't we getting a head of ourselves folks?


Yeah, we're just going by the 12z run of the GFS. Not really trusting it yet though.
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Quoting NHCstevehayward:
I hear a lot of talk about "Earl" ? Aren't we getting a head of ourselves folks?


It's great to have a person like you on here. Sometimes I disagree the judgments you guys make on classifications, but overall, you guys are the experts. What's your take on the remnants of TD5?
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GFS 12z 288 hours, backs off on intensity, recurves it just east of Bermuda.

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183. JRRP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Strengthened just a tad, or held intensity:



Holding Intensity:



Weakening:



Holding Intensity, or weakening slightly:



Holding or strengthening slightly:




stronger than 00z and a bit more left
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


Hey Storm!
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!

Hey there Storm! Good afternoon! :)
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You guys do realize that there is an actual National Hurricane Center worker on this blog?
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Quoting NHCstevehayward:
Good afternoon !!

Hey there Steve!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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