Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:
The SW Caribbean system should be watched over the next day or two. The NAM is the only model I've seen developing the system, but I can see why it would considering the system has an upper-level anticyclone over it and should head in a more north-westerly direction to stay over water longer.

Just a side note, the NAM nailed TD5 36 hours out. It had TD5 opening up into a trof and moving to around the Panhandle before drifting west along the coast. Just saying...It's something to watch during our lull.
Yep we should always be on the lookout for some mischief close to home. Like you said, somethin to look at during the lull.
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Looks like the NHC has implemented latitude and longitude points into their TWO graphic...I've never noticed it before.

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CMC 12z:

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Quoting Waltanater:
How does one get a job at the NHC in Miami?
maybe walk in the front door and summit your app

lol
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Clouds Can Communicate, Scientists Say.

Link
Sorry, had to post this one more time. Still freakin me out!!!
Let's hope that all those free thinkers don't get organized.
I wonder if they communicate with other storm systems, ULL's, wind shear?
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Quoting scott39:
What direction in the GOM will the L go if it developes?


Are you referring to the L in the Caribbean?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 492 Comments: 3688
GEFS resurrects TD5 to be east of Louisiana on Monday

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Quoting scott39:
What direction in the GOM will the L go if it developes?


Either WNW or NW after 96hrs.
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How does one get a job at the NHC in Miami?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA


LOL, just as I ask the question (post 309), looks like they still aren't putting the Caribbean disturbacne in the outlook. I'll see what happens at 8 PM.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 492 Comments: 3688
What direction in the GOM will the L go if it developes?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
Quoting ElConando:
MH Dade county schools starts the 16th or the 23rd this year?
August 23rd.
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MH Dade county schools starts the 16th or the 23rd this year?
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Thanks for the update but one question. Why sweep the great North American heat wave of 1936 under the rug in the discussion about extreme heat? It is mentioned early but all other discussion and related analysis refers to a very narrow 7-year time frame. If you want those of us who believe climate change is occurring but are skeptical as to the validity and motivations of attributing it to humans' activity on earth, then you have to address those extreme events that don't fit nicely in your man-caused global-warming time-frame. I'm open to listening but to date, none of the experts seem to ever address these older events. Thanks and keep up the great work!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The wave behind PG128L is the wave that might develop.
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Quoting NHCstevehayward:

I understand the regulations, however, as a member we must be very cautious always, please email me if you have any questions on this, i would be glad to clarify any points. Thanks!
Oh, no, that's fine. I was just wondering. It's all good.
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Afternoon folks,

Its been a few days since I blogged here, had to take care of some things before my next semester of grad school begins.

Anyway, the tropics continue looking tranquil, still anticipating that climatological rise in the Atlantic hurricane season that typically occurs in August. Meanwhile, I posted some info about tropical depression five, how it rose, and why it fell quickly thereafter. You may learn something new about tropical weather.

That disturbance in the south-central Caribbean looks interesting, I wonder if the NHC will introduce it in the tropical weather outlook soon.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 492 Comments: 3688
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA


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305. xcool
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N32W TO 6N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED FARTHER W THAN PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD
SUGGEST BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST E
OF THE WAVE AXIS...CONVECTION IS CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ WHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 24W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N55W TO 14N60W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 58W-59W...AND FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 54W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
20N68W TO 15N72W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS S OF HISPANIOLA
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND FROM 16N-21N W OF 63W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W 7N26W 6N40W
7N52W 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W...AND N OF THE AXIS NEAR GUINEA
BISSAU FROM 11N-13N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 30-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL LOUISIANA INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS LOCATED NEAR 30N90W
ABOUT 30 NM E OF NEW ORLEANS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW
CENTER...AS OF 1500 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINE
THE ENTIRE NRN GULF COAST FROM 27N-31N. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LOW
CENTER SHOULD MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE WRN GULF CENTERED
OVER THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER ERN GEORGIA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR ACROSS THE SE
GULF KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS DRAWING
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. EXPECT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE DRIFT FARTHER INLAND WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
FROM WRN CUBA NEAR 24N84W TO S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W
ACROSS ERN CUBA TO NEAR 18N75W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 73W-77W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE
NICARAGUAN COAST ALONG 83W FROM 11N-14N. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS S OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N TO THE COAST
OF PANAMA DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE
ITCZ ACROSS SRN COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 10N. A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE ISLAND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
70W-73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE CARIBBEAN
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A
TROPICAL WAVE TO E OF THE ISLANDS MOVES NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS ACROSS ERN CUBA
ALONG 25N77W TO 18N75W SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N66W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN
GEORGIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 28N59W SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 24N61W SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N47W TO
26N54W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 46W-50W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS. FARTHER
E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING
OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA E OF 30W S OF 35N SUPPORTING STABLE
CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE N OF 20N WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
Hey Xcool, Have you got alot of rain today? I have.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Federal meteorologists aren't permitted to post on any civilian meteorology sites.
Yeah right! What's preventing them from signing up with a bogus name?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
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Quoting Thaale:

Wow, that is bizarre. Thanks for pointing that out. Can't believe Jeff Masters (and before him RR) just posted that without comment.

What I don't get is that if she really believes this, what good does she think it will do to casually ask "them" to turn the rain faucet off for a while? Presumably this is just what the rain machine's operators wanted, so why would they stop now?

Yes, it is quite bizarre, isn't it!? Yes, I see what you mean about her just seeming to outright ask them. And who exactly is she referring to as "them" I wonder?
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299. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting tkeith:
I have a friend that works for the NWS in Texas and he told me the same thing Conan...They can privately give you their personal opinion but not publicly is what I'm told.


St. Louis NWS Jim Kramper said the same thing....
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:

Clouds Can Communicate, Scientists Say.
Link
I wonder what they have to say about this blog.

Absolutely fascinating! XD :))
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Couldn't help but notice this towards the end of the blog...."I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you could give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up." - What the?

Wow, that is bizarre. Thanks for pointing that out. Can't believe Jeff Masters (and before him RR) just posted that without comment.

What I don't get is that if she really believes this, what good does she think it will do to casually ask "them" to turn the rain faucet off for a while? Presumably this is just what the rain machine's operators wanted, so why would they stop now?
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT


* AT 1216 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
EAST OF OSYKA MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR WARENTON AND MOUNT HERMON
LOUISIANA. RADAR ESTIMATED 4 TO 6 RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN THE AREA
FROM 9AM UNTIL NOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 200PM..
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
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Quoting ElConando:


Includes Mets from the NWS and all umbrella organizations such as the NHC for those who are unaware of what he means.
I have a friend that works for the NWS in Texas and he told me the same thing Conan...They can privately give you their personal opinion but not publicly is what I'm told.
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936

Clouds Can Communicate, Scientists Say.
Link
I wonder what they have to say about this blog.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


200 for security and 100 for two big dogs, 500 for weapons and I think you might make it a little while.



It isn't that bad compared to living in other Central American countries.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Federal meteorologists aren't permitted to post on any civilian meteorology sites.



That just sounds crazy, I don't understand why they wouldn't be able to. I'm not being a smarty pants by asking this just wondering.
sheri
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quite true MississippiWx
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Quoting ElConando:


Includes Mets from the NWS and all umbrella organizations such as the NHC for those who are unaware of what he means.
Oh, well then...
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Quoting donna1960ruled:
My wife just e-mailed a Yahoo article on how Belize is the best place in the world to retire to....300/month for seaside accomodations, 50./ month health insurance, etc. Does anyone remember Hurricane Hattie?
Belize gets flattenned like clockwork every 10 or 20 years.
Hattie was bad. On Halloween I believe,or the day before.
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new face hello steve
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TD5 does not currently have the ULL problems it had a few days ago on the way in; feel really bad for LA right now with the flooding issues....This will probably not dissipate anytime soon and I see no real impediment to reorganization at the moment if it is able to drift back over the Gulf; plenty of moisture, no ULL interference, and low sheer in the short term.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Federal meteorologists aren't permitted to post on any civilian meteorology sites.


Includes Mets from the NWS and all umbrella organizations such as the NHC for those who are unaware of what he means.
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Quoting donna1960ruled:
My wife just e-mailed a Yahoo article on how Belize is the best place in the world to retire to....300/month for seaside accomodations, 50./ month health insurance, etc. Does anyone remember Hurricane Hattie?
Belize gets flattenned like clockwork every 10 or 20 years.


200 for security and 100 for two big dogs, 500 for weapons and I think you might make it a little while.

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Tazmanian 05L has been back from yesterday well more like last night but yeah your late
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The SW Caribbean system should be watched over the next day or two. The NAM is the only model I've seen developing the system, but I can see why it would considering the system has an upper-level anticyclone over it and should head in a more north-westerly direction to stay over water longer.

Just a side note, the NAM nailed TD5 36 hours out. It had TD5 opening up into a trof and moving to around the Panhandle before drifting west along the coast. Just saying...It's something to watch during our lull.
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275. JRRP
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.