Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3025 - 2975

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

For the people posting their storm experiences: What are your criteria for determining which storms you've been through? Tropical storm winds? Damage? Proximity to center?

Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
3024. WxLogic
Tropics should start "heating" up by Tuesday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I'll take a look now.

I haven't read what he's calling for on XTD5, from anywhere else.

Maybe he's right.


It also getting hard to ignore the sign Link of the Eastern Atlantic forming some named systems with the ECMWF and GFS in strong agreement, after TD 5 if there are any major impact on land it is going to come from the East.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Were you there for Andrew?


i was
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning Aqua. Although at this moment I don't fit into either good looking category. Lol. I read Crown Weather's forecast. I hope he's being over aggressive. But I remember Humberto vividly so strengthening just off shore and quickly wouldn't surprise me at all. One thing I do agree with is any tropical anything coming ashore anywhere near the TX/LA border will come in at night. We wouldn't know what to do if we could see one as well as hear it. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3020. IKE
I'll say this much...a lot of these models have been way too aggressive on invests and storms up til now. That includes the GFS...CMC...NOGAPS...SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...GFDL.

The ECMWF has been the other way in 2010, hardly showing anything w/Bonnie or Colin.

I can't speak for the UKMET because I haven't seen enough runs to form an opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3019. msphar
Good morning folks, quite a pulse of dry air/dust has preceeded this next wave just off Africa. I see it close to the Cape Verdes islands and NWS indicates its movement will be a bit southerly towards the ITCZ. This may give it moisture to combat that surrounding desiccated air it will encounter. The wave preceding it has been choked off so far as it approaches the islands. It will be a long road, from 17W to the islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3018. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3017. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
hey Ike- didja read CrownWeather this morning? Do you think he's being a little too aggressive?


I'll take a look now.

I haven't read what he's calling for on XTD5, from anywhere else.

Maybe he's right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3016. aquak9
hey Ike- didja read CrownWeather this morning? Do you think he's being a little too aggressive?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3015. aquak9
Good morning handsome men and gorgeous women. I hope all are well this Sunday morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A SURFACE
LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY. A KEY FACTOR
DETERMINING THE LEVEL OF INTENSIFICATION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
THE LOW MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF...OR IF IT WILL HUG THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HUGGING THE COAST. WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES... BUT CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVING INLAND ON WED OVER LA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF.

THE MARINE FORECAST SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IT COULD CHANGE SHOULD THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO DETERMINE WHAT EFFECTS OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3013. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
I agree Ike, I think our insurance policies i.e. SAL, ULL's have expired. We're at the mercy of the positions of the Highs now to protect the CONUS and the Islands.


I've started focusing on systems heading toward the GOM. Major type systems. I'm still rooting for no one to be greatly impacted...not to sound self-centered.

Latest GFS takes the eastern ATL low/storm, slightly further south and west from the previous run, but still turns it around 60W...north of the islands...

204 hours...



288 hours...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Looks how far north the lows are coming off Africa. That's the longitude of the Cape Verdes. Seems like the models may be correct IF this low develops tropically, in having it head toward the open North Atlantic...



lol Ike, not all of them, there should be some long track storms this year that MAY make it all the way. It seems like the first storm may head out to sea, then the second one heads further west, which is part of a daily pattern from years past.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
mornin homeless


Morning. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well its nice at least the neighboring NWS talk about it.

CONCERNING THE RAIN FORECAST...THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE UPPER
HIGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL INTERACT. LIKED THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION
TO THAT OF THE GFS IN KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW MORE OVER LAND OR
THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE UPPER LOW MAY GET OFFSHORE BUT ALL MODELS HAVE IT
LOOPING WESTWARD BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHEAST...A BIT MADDENING
WHEN IT COMES TO IMPACTS AS SE TX COULD GO FROM LITTLE RAIN TO
VERY GOOD COVERAGE. DECIDED TO STAY WITH A CONSERVATIVE AND
CONSENSUS APPROACH...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS JUST STILL
TOO EARLY TO GO WHOLE HOG WITH ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER TWO DEGREES OR MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER OR RAIN COVERAGE OCCURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3009. surfmom
Quoting tkeith:
I agree Ike, I think our insurance policies i.e. SAL, ULL's have expired. We're at the mercy of the positions of the Highs now to protect the CONUS and the Islands.

hummmmmmm - there's the gristly bone to go w/the coffee this morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3008. tkeith
mornin homeless
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
3007. tkeith
Time for me to get ready for a round of "pasture pool"... Keep em honest in here Ike :)

Mornin Surf!
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
3006. tkeith
I agree Ike, I think our insurance policies i.e. SAL, ULL's have expired. We're at the mercy of the positions of the Highs now to protect the CONUS and the Islands.
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
3005. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
527 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...
THE MODELS REMAIN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW
OVER ALABAMA MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATER TODAY AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE VERTICALLY
STACKED FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH AN UPPER HIGH
CENTER JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE LARGER SCALE
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING SUCH THAT THE COL OR
WEAKNESS WILL TAKE THE LOW WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST ON TUESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION OF
COURSE...IS WILL THIS LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS INDICATING A
LOW/20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS OF 100 AM CDT THIS MORNING. I AM EXPECTING TO SEE
THIS CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT GET HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...THE CLUSTER OF TRACKS OVER WATER
GIVE THE LOW PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTH GULF
OF MEXICO TO ATTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE GFS REMAINS THE
STRONGEST MODEL SHOWING TROPICAL STORM/GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND 50
KNOTS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN
ADVERTISING FAIRLY WEAK SOLUTIONS...IS NOW SHOWING A PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW THAT COULD EASILY SUPPORT
35 KNOTS OF WIND. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE RAISED THE
WINDS IN THE GRIDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED AGAIN
LATER TODAY. REFER TO THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST...AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THIS IS
VERY TROUBLESOME GIVEN MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE
LAST WEEK OR SO OF RAINS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TIDES UP TO AT LEAST 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOW NEARS THE COAST...BUT THAT COULD END UP BEING
HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDAL RANGES WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIOD WITH RANGES INCREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET. A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED. 22/TD

.LONG TERM...
THE LOW MAY STALL TO OUR WEST...SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN LOUISIANA OR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY MVFR VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AROUND SUNRISE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID-MORNING. VCTS
MENTIONED IN ALL TERMINALS...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AROUND SUNSET AS CIRCULATION AROUND ALABAMA LOW
SWINGS A VORT LOBE THROUGH THE AREA. 35
&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT BACK SOUTH INTO COASTAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION LATER TODAY.

GOING INTO MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING...EXACT MOVEMENT...AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW THAT THE MODELS SHOW MOVING WEST BACK TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR TRACK AND TIMING...HAVE TEMPERED WINDS
CONSIDERABLY FOR NOW. EVEN SO...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRICT GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE STORM FORCE WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT A WEAKER SOLUTION SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE AT
THIS TIME. A GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR LATER PACKAGES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3004. surfmom
Good Morning, Never to old to experience a first, although I'm only 4 years into being a weather geek-- yellow circle over land - is this a first in weather history?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
527 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW...THE REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...REMAINS
SITUATED NEAR MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. THIS IS A BIT NORTH OF WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A VERY MOIST/
MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR LOUISIANA TO
ALABAMA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER/PWATS/ AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE BREADTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...MINUS A LARGE WATER BODY AT THE
SURFACE OF COURSE.


LMAO!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3002. IKE
Looks how far north the lows are coming off Africa. That's the longitude of the Cape Verdes. Seems like the models may be correct IF this low develops tropically, in having it head toward the open North Atlantic...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3001. tkeith
It seems shear aint gonna be a problem for it

Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
3000. tkeith
Quoting IKE:
Precip headed toward me from the north is approaching the Florida state line and weakening. I notice the latest GFS keeps the heavier precipitation with the wiggle mainly offshore until the low reaches western Louisiana.

If I had to guess...maybe this makes it to a TD. I would say the odds of it being named...based off looking at models and what I've read, is about 1 in 3.
we're good on rain here. I'm sure western La. to Houston area could use it more than us.

Probably clip the relief well area though.
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
2999. IKE
Precip headed toward me from the north is approaching the Florida state line and weakening. I notice the latest GFS keeps the heavier precipitation with the wiggle mainly offshore until the low reaches western Louisiana.

If I had to guess...maybe this makes it to a TD. I would say the odds of it being named...based off looking at models and what I've read, is about 1 in 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2998. tkeith
Quoting IKE:
Spurious....Wiggle....Dew Point5......
perfect...lol
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
2997. IKE
Spurious....Wiggle....Dew Point5......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2996. tkeith
...THE WIGGLE
CURRENTLY INLAND



so that's what you call an inland ex-TD remnant low...I kinda liked the "debris" description too.
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
2995. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
451 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING WE NOTE A UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PARKED OVER LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WITH A
SOUTHBOUND SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND WE EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THIS FORCING MECHANISM SLOWLY
MIGRATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH SOME MOVING SLOW ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MODERATED A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE BY
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM STORMS...WITH MID 90S NORTHWEST AND UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. BY TONIGHT WE EXPECT MOST
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY INLAND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. /05

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BY MONDAY SUNRISE...THE WIGGLE
CURRENTLY INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS HAS MEANDERED SOUTH TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MONDAY SUNRISE ACCORDING TO
THE GUIDANCE. THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN TAKING THIS FEATURE WEST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FROM THERE...GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH THE GFS
TAKING THIS SYSTEM INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND MISS...WHILST THE NAM
IS A BIT FARTHER WEST AND LATER TAKING IT INLAND. 00Z ECMWF TAKES
THIS FEATURE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND INTO THE EXTENDED... BEFORE TAKING IT INLAND OVER TX.

HAVE A FEELING THE DOOM AND GLOOM GFS IS OVERBLOWN WITH RESPECT TO
STRENGTH...AND A BIT TO FAR EAST...SO HAVE WENT WITH CONCENSUS AND
TAKING THE UPPER SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER WEST.
HAVE A FEELING THAT POPS
OVER THE PART OF THE CWA OPPOSITE THE SYSTEM CENTER IS A BIT OVERDONE
ATTM...WHICH TRANSLATES TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH MONDAY...NORTHEAST AND
EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT WITH
THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK...AND PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP WITH THE
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONCENSUS...ONE THING IS PRETTY CERTAIN WITH THE
CURRENT PACKAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...MONDAY...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...TRANSITIONING TO THE COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THIS HEAVIER RAIN...A SMALL CHANCE OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED EXISTS...BUT AM
LEAVING THIS TO THE DAY SHIFT TO FLESH OUT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)WITH CONCENSUS TAKING THE
UPPER SYSTEM INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TX TUESDAY...CONTINUING THIS TREND
WILL TAKE THIS SYSTEM INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY
ON...EVEN CONCENSUS IS HARD TO PICK OUT...WITH GUIDANCE ADVERTISING
THIS SYSTEM TAKING OFF ANYWHERES FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN KEEPS THE SYSTEM MEANDERING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE LA COAST INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING IT TO SE TX BY FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED...WENT WITH CLIMO AS A START...WITH SOME TWEAKING FROM THERE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS TODAY
(A BIT STRONGER OFFSHORE WHERE WE HAVE SCEC HEADLINES GOING). A
WEAK/BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ALABAMA TODAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST AND DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT MOVING THIS LOW TO NEAR THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING IT. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS THE MOST ROBUST STRENGTHENING THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST
AND WEAKER WITH THE LOW.
WE COMPROMISED THIS MORNING USING THE GFS
POSITIONS FOR THE LOW BUT CAPPED THE WINDS AT 25 KNOTS FOR NOW. WE
WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY TOMORROW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES AND TURNS MORE EASTERLY AT 25
KTS. REMAIN ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. /05
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've been hit by a lot in just the past few years.

1999 - Hurricane Irene
2004 - Hurricane Frances
2004 - Hurricane Jeanne
2005 - Hurricane Katrina
2005 - Hurricane Rita
2005 - Hurricane Wilma
2006 - Hurricane Ernesto
2008 - Tropical Storm Fay
2010 - Tropical Storm Bonnie

And, probably a bunch of TD's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, Sounds like possible flooding in areas will be are greatest concern with this one.


Right. That will be its main legacy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2992. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Probably not as slow as it has been, but it will still move rather slowly.
Thanks, Sounds like possible flooding in areas will be are greatest concern with this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Its probably because the low is still tracking S and the models will move with it.


Oh ok. This will be interesting to see if it does redevelop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Is XTD5 going to be a slow mover over land once it makes landfall a second time?


Probably not as slow as it has been, but it will still move rather slowly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
2983- Debris--Soo trashy--Should have known coming from Lower Alabama---LOL-- I lived here for 30 years so I can say that!LOL


Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2988. scott39
Quoting homelesswanderer:


They don't even go into the gulf.
Its probably because the low is still tracking S and the models will move with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2987. scott39
2983- Debris--Soo trashy--Should have known coming from Lower Alabama---LOL-- I lived here for 30 years so I can say that!LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
www.tropicalatlantic.com is pretty cool. Its tracking the Low over SE Alabama.


They don't even go into the gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol. At least it'll be cool.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2984. scott39
www.tropicalatlantic.com is pretty cool. Its tracking the Low over SE Alabama.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lake Charles are hard to impress.

A RATHER INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT IS PROG STARTING ON MONDAY AS
THE DEBRIS FROM TD5 MOVES BACK INTO THE GULF OFF SHORE OF PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA. WITH GULF WATERS REMAINING VERY WARM THIS WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW AGAIN. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
TO THE WEST AND THIS WILL BRING THE REGION SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL HAPPEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICKUP ON TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL COME CLOUDS WHICH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 90S ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR 90.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this storm develops in the Gulf I'd surely put more trust into these models. Sure, intensity forecasting is still bad, but I remember that models were predicting this a few days ago and people thought it was crazy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FXUS62 KTAE 150801
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. UNFORTUNATELY
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MAX
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS ENERGY WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO FEED OFF AN ATMOSPHERE THAT
REMAINS VERY MOIST. THE KTLH 15/00Z SOUNDING PROFILE ONCE AGAIN HAD
A PWAT VALUE OVER 2.4" OR AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS THE FIRST SIGNS THAT
FALL IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW HAS DUG A
AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
LOW IS EVER SO SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL FOCUS
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE IS FORCING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
STREAMING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
THESE TWO AREA TO BLOSSOM FURTHER IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO AND
BEYOND SUNRISE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...AND WILL BE HELD TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TODAY...PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN EMPHASIS OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA. CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY IN ANY ONE LOCATION...
BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND. ALREADY STARTING OUT THE
DAY WITH DECENT COVERAGE ON REGIONAL RADARS...AND THIS POINT IN THE
DIRECTION OF THINGS TO COME. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
OF 70-75% OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. MAV POPS ARE ACTUALLY
EVEN HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. POPS DROP DOWN TO THE CHANCE
40-50% CATEGORY TOWARD CROSS CITY...WHERE INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW
WILL BE MINIMIZED. BOTTOM LINE...ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
INCLUDE PLANS FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON BASICALLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH IT RAINS. HAVE GONE WITH
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 90...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE WETTER SPOTS ARE HELD IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

TONIGHT...PATTERN STARTS GETTING A BIT MORE INTERESTING. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO DRIFT OFFSHORE OF THE
PANHANDLE...AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW WILL TRY TO GET A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES. INTO THE WESTERN FL BIG BEND...
INCLUDING THE TALLAHASSEE AREA...CURRENT GRIDS ARE SHOWING HIGH END
CHANCE POPS (50-55%) FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW
THIS LOW ORGANIZES...A FAVORABLE FLOW INTO APALACHEE BAY FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE. IN THIS EVENT...RAIN
CHANCES...AND CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE HIGHER.
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY...BUT FOR NOW THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED RAIN BANDS IS FROM GULF COUNTY WESTWARD. NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR...POPS DROP TO 30-40% FOR A SCATTERING OF LEFTOVER
SHOWERS.

MONDAY...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. MOST ORGANIZED RAINFALL AND HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE FL PANHANDLE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS ENERGY...AND WILL BE KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS (70-80%) IN THE GRIDS. FORECAST WILL TREND TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE COAST. HAVE GONE WITH A GFS/SREF MEAN BLEND FOR LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTH AND TIMING (WIND SPEED/DIRECTION) ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THIS BLEND INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST.

TUESDAY...WITH THE LOW NOW WELL TO OUR WEST AND GIVING UP INFLUENCE
ON OUR REGION...WILL TREND THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MID AUGUST. FORECAST WILL SHOW 40-50% RAIN CHANCES FOR MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S THROUGH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
IN THE WAKE OF REMNANT TD5 LOW...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK. GFS
AN OUTLIER IN SHIFTING WHAT EVOLVES OUT OF TD5 ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS WEEK. THIS COULD KEEP FEED OF GREATER MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER WWD AND DISSIPATES INVOF THE
NWRN GULF COAST REGION. REGARDLESS...REGION WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S EACH DAY.
APPEARS MID WEEK WILL SEE A LOWER POPS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND THEN OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT TAKES UP A
POSITION OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AND MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
DEPENDING ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW...A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR
EVEN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA
TOWARD LOUISIANA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS SETTLING
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH WEAK LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO SAG SWD ALONG THE SERN AL/SWRN GA
BORDER REGION AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY... WILL MAINTAIN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM FCST ACROSS THE REGION.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BECOME PREVALENT AT MOST SITES BY THE AFTERNOON
AS AFTERNOON HEATING BOOSTS DESTABILIZATION ...ALTHOUGH EARLIER
ARRIVAL AND MORE PERSISTENT MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND
KECP. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL BUT KECP THIS EVENING AS
THE WEAK LOW CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE FL PAHANDLE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST/WET CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT... WITH
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS DIMINISHING IN WAKE OF CURRENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 91 77 92 76 94 / 70 50 60 20 40
PANAMA CITY 90 78 90 79 92 / 70 70 70 50 40
DOTHAN 90 76 92 75 94 / 70 50 60 20 40
ALBANY 91 77 93 76 94 / 70 40 50 20 40
VALDOSTA 91 76 93 74 93 / 70 40 50 20 50
CROSS CITY 92 77 93 74 94 / 40 40 40 20 50
APALACHICOLA 91 80 90 81 92 / 70 70 70 50 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...EVANS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2980. IKE
Looking at the TPC forecast for the GOM, for now...they get the winds up to 20 knots, as the highest...along the northern GOM through Thursday...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2979. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


That it would. Looks like I might be getting a tropical storm in a few days.
Is XTD5 going to be a slow mover over land once it makes landfall a second time?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2978. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2977. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E CENTRAL
GULF W ALONG 26N...THEN NW AND INTO SE TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON AS ELONGATED LOW PRES ACROSS THE SE GULF
STATES SINKS S TO THE N GULF COASTS LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
THEN SHIFT SLOWLY SW TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY TUE
MORNING AND THEN TURN NW AND INLAND ACROSS SW LOUISIANA TUE
EVENING AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW PRES
SYSTEM TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT MOVES
OVER WATER...AND PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

.........................................


MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
430 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.TODAY THROUGH MON...N OF 27N SW TO W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT BUILDING
3 TO 5 FT. S OF 27N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N PART.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N OF 26N S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT SEAS 3
TO 5 FT. S OF 26N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
ISOLATED TSTMS FAR N WATERS.
.WED AND THU...SE TO S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2976. scott39
The SAL looks to be growing off Africa from 10N to 50W. Wouldnt this impede developement of waves coming off Africa?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
That would allow time for developing.


That it would. Looks like I might be getting a tropical storm in a few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3025 - 2975

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
31 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron