Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

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Ex-TD5..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
JUST A QUICK POLL
WILL TD5 REDEVELOP
A. YES
B. NO
B
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
GFS at 84 hours keeps the vorticity over land on this run....another one...96L?, coming off Africa.



Its over land, but close enough to where it can draw moisture from the GOMEX
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32501
Mobile NWS..
Outlook

There is agreement among several extended range weather models of
taking a weak low pressure system over the deep south and looping
it back to the west later in the weekend.

The low is forecast to emerge back over the water...off the
Northwest Florida Coast...later in the day Sunday. Then moving
westward...skirting the Northern Gulf Coast Monday.

The weather will remain unsettled with the potential of numerous
showers/tstms...mainly closer to the main low pressure system with
scattered coverages on its periphery. At this time...the low is not
forecast to regenerate into a tropical system...but will be closely
monitored. stay tuned for later updates.


Seas are forecast to range between 3 and 5 feet. /10
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
721. IKE
GFS at 84 hours keeps the vorticity of TD5 over land on this run....another one...96L?, coming off Africa.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
719. IKE
Quoting weatherman12345:
JUST A QUICK POLL
WILL TD5 REDEVELOP
A. YES
B. NO


Probably a safer bet would be no. It could happen, but...from reading area discussions I would say the odds are 1 in 3 that it will.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
JUST A QUICK POLL
WILL TD5 REDEVELOP
A. YES
B. NO


Seeing as there isn't a C. 'Maybe', and the very strong model support for regeneration in the Gulf I'm going to grudgingly say 'Yes'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
It was gusts over 160 mph. Hurricane Charley, when I was living in Port Charlotte in 2004. Strangely, today is the 6 year anniversary of Charley, and it is the dreaded Friday the 13th!!!! And this is post# 666!!! Enough already!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
JUST A QUICK POLL
WILL TD5 REDEVELOP
A. YES
B. NO
Yes . The Gulf has that hot water, and Ex 5 is ravenous.:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
JUST A QUICK POLL
WILL TD5 REDEVELOP
A. YES
B. NO


A
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32501
713. IKE
Aug. 13th with no invests on the planet. That's amazing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
711. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Fri 13 Aug 2010 22:01:02Z

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic


East Pacific



Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


that's beautiful! XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
710. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Fri 13 Aug 2010 22:01:02Z

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic


East Pacific



Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


Really adding em up isn't it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Fri 13 Aug 2010 22:01:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:


oh my

. .
0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
705. IKE
New Orleans....MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF TD 5...WILL MOVE LITTLE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS OF UP TO 4 FEET...AS
WELL AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RE-DEVELOP NEAR
THE FLA PANHANDLE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST ALONG THE COAST
AND COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF FOLLOW SIMILAR PATHS IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM
WEST...HOWEVER THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE ON THE STRENGTH AT
THIS TIME SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR WINDS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thank you, ike
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:
Okay, now I'm gone, I promise!

Nooo! Don't gooooo!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I guess I stand corrected!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
It was gusts over 160 mph. Hurricane Charley, when I was living in Port Charlotte in 2004. Strangely, today is the 6 year anniversary of Charley, and it is the dreaded Friday the 13th!!!! And this is post# 666!!! Enough already!


ROFL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay, now I'm gone, I promise!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
699. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
would someone be so kind as to post an MJO graph for me? Doesn't matter which one. Thank you.

(the one with the circle in the middle)


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
would someone be so kind as to post an MJO graph for me? Doesn't matter which one. Thank you.

(the one with the circle in the middle)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MILLERTIME1:
The stongets wind speed was from an EF5 tornado that struck OKC on May 3rd 1999. The wind speed was 318 mph.


That's the problem with a limited scale like that...seems that one should have been an EF6 or something with wind speeds in that range...

"The tornado then crossed the Canadian River, passing into far southern Oklahoma City. As it passed over Bridge Creek, around 6:54 p.m., a Doppler On Wheels (DOW: Wurman et al. 1997, Wurman 2001) mobile Doppler weather radar detected winds of 301 mph (484 km/h), ±20 mph inside the tornado at a height of 32 m AGL (Wurman et al. 2007) (The old record was a 257-268 mph wind measurement from a Doppler weather radar near Red Rock, Oklahoma, as reported in a formal publication by Bluestein et al. (1993)). These winds, however, occurred above the ground, and winds at the surface may not have been quite this intense."

These were not surface winds and they were not measured mechanically but by extrapolation using Doppler radar...the Olivia windspeed is thus the record
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
696. xcool
tkeith .you find outtt
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The stongets wind speed was from an EF5 tornado that struck OKC on May 3rd 1999. The wind speed was 318 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
would someone be so kind as to post an MJO graph for me? Doesn't matter which one. Thank you.

(the one with the circle in the middle)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
It was gusts over 160 mph. Hurricane Charley, when I was living in Port Charlotte in 2004. Strangely, today is the 6 year anniversary of Charley, and it is the dreaded Friday the 13th!!!! And this is post# 666!!! Enough already!


Okay, poked my head back in for a sec...hydrus, you are very frightening individual...you should have made a wish with all that hanging on that post!

LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
tkeith.oh yeah
you not gonna give me a hint?

:)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
339 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
REMNANTS OF TD5 SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH OVER THE REGION FROM MS TO
CENTRAL AL...THEN BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE TRACKING
SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THEN WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST COME NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
NOTED IN TODAY`S RUN BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE
REMAINS THE SAME. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS
REMNANTS OF TD5 DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. IF THIS VERIFIES...THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE WETTER THAN CURRENT PREDICTIONS. FOR
NOW...WE WILL STICK WITH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/NAM TRACK OF
TD5...BUT TONE DOWN THE WIND MAGNITUDES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS IT
BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THE PWS IN THE 2-2.5 INCHES WITH MID-LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES AROUND 340K THROUGH THIS TIME...WHICH BOTH ARE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. WE DID HAVE TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE GUIDANCE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT CONSIDERING THE ENHANCED CLOUD/SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED.
does that mean the ECMWF has it going towards Tallahassee and not back in the water?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
688. IKE 4:36 PM CDT on August 13, 2010

gonna rain here all week next week it looks like...

Unless I lost something in the translation :)

Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
Quoting Floodman:
Quoting gordydunnot:
Flood there using unleavened bread. Nice band earlier, sad to say it either a indictment of how much good music there was back then or my musical ignorance.



Amen to that...there's modern stuff I like, but man, in the 60s and 70s there was always someone new whose stuff was killer...
FLOOD!! Please check out my post # 666....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
688. IKE
From Mobile,AL....

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
INTERESTING PATTERN SETTING UP. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF AND SREF OF SENDING THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST AL ON SUN ON A LOOPING PATTERN...SOUTHWEST...THEN
WEST...SKIRTING THE AL/WRN FL COASTLINE ON MONDAY. THE CANADIAN
GEM...ALTHOUGH ALSO SHOWING A WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE LOW IS MUCH
SLOWER/FARTHEST EAST OF THE OTHER THREE AND MUCH DEEPER WITH ITS LOW
SOLUTION...MOVING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS AL/MS BORDER BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS COMES IN SECOND WITH A DEEPENING LOW MOVING
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY WED AFTN. WILL DISCOUNT THE
GEM. THE NATIONAL CENTERS SUGGEST THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH ITS
LOW AND WILL MAINTAIN A WWRD MOVING...BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE
TROF/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY...AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL ZONE POKING DOWN INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY LATE NEXT
WEEK. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD...CALLING FOR A LIKELY
CHANCE=>NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA SUN AND MON IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SW-WWRD MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THERE. WILL STAY WITH MID/HIGH RANGE CHANCE OF
DAYTIME POPS FOR TUE THROUGH FRI WITH LOWER CHANCES EACH NIGHT. NO
CHANGE MADE TO TEMPERATURES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Well that Caribbean disturbance could be a 10 percenter. But yeah I don't expect anything before Monday.


Neither, apparently, does the NHC:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
NNNN


And with that I am out of here...I've done about as much damage as I can for one day

Play nice, kids!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, Wilma had 175mph winds with 215mph gusts just by the advisory.

So, say 190.. could be looking at 230, at least. That's already EF5 tornado speed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N84W WITH A RIDGE TO
25N97W. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO ALONG 26N SAT...AND TO
27N SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. THE WEAK REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE PERSISTS IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SHIFTING INTO
S ALABAMA SUN...MOVING INTO FL PANHANDLE MON. THE LOW FINALLY
SHIFTS W INTO SE LOUISIANA MON THROUGH TUE INTO WED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


Sounds like more rain to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
684. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
339 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
REMNANTS OF TD5 SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH OVER THE REGION FROM MS TO
CENTRAL AL...THEN BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE TRACKING
SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THEN WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST COME NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
NOTED IN TODAY`S RUN BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE
REMAINS THE SAME. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS
REMNANTS OF TD5 DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. IF THIS VERIFIES...THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE WETTER THAN CURRENT PREDICTIONS. FOR
NOW...WE WILL STICK WITH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/NAM TRACK OF
TD5...BUT TONE DOWN THE WIND MAGNITUDES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS IT
BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THE PWS IN THE 2-2.5 INCHES WITH MID-LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES AROUND 340K THROUGH THIS TIME...WHICH BOTH ARE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. WE DID HAVE TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE GUIDANCE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT CONSIDERING THE ENHANCED CLOUD/SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
E C FL pounding continues for the 7th straight day. The sky is extremely black to the west of me and it's a coming my way.

be careful..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
681. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N84W WITH A RIDGE TO
25N97W. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO ALONG 26N SAT...AND TO
27N SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. THE WEAK REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE PERSISTS IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SHIFTING INTO
S ALABAMA SUN...MOVING INTO FL PANHANDLE MON. THE LOW FINALLY
SHIFTS W INTO SE LOUISIANA MON THROUGH TUE INTO WED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BDAwx:


In Bermuda:
Fabian sustained winds of 120mph gusts to 165mph
Florence sustained winds of 80mph gusts to 115mph
Do you mean 1988 Florence? I was enjoying the swells from her in Venice,Fl back then. A couple of days after that, I was at T.V. 20 tracking Gilbert with a Met named Jim Farrell. Another amazing monster...
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Quoting NHCstevehayward:

okay, i didn't know that, why do you think they would such a thing?


Corporations...they have stuff archived that no one has any idea about. I'd almost imagine someone was looking through their archived weather data and said "OMG!? 253mph? Got to get that out!" and they released it...I don't think was willful (though I could very well be wrong)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
678. xcool


oh my
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting gordydunnot:
Flood there using unleavened bread. Nice band earlier, sad to say it either a indictment of how much good music there was back then or my musical ignorance.

Quoting tkeith:
the music was just that much better...RIP Lowell George


Amen to that...there's modern stuff I like, but man, in the 60s and 70s there was always someone new whose stuff was killer...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
675. xcool
tkeith.oh yeah
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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