Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3075 - 3025

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3074. Gearsts
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1017
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3072. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Makes me a little nervous that same guy predicting less active season. Lol

August 13, 2010
As we enter the heart of hurricane season, it's dead quiet out there


Link


That reads like an honest..straight-forward synopsis of what was called for..what has happened up til now...and what could happen the remainder of the season.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Been reading about the long range models. I found an interesting article along those lines. And I didn't even read the GW part. But the first part reminds me of...Famous Last Words. :) Houston Chronical Link


sciguy
| Hurricane Central
SciGuy
A science blog with Eric Berger

September 04, 2008
Why Ike's less likely to visit the Gulf.


Hurricane Ike remains an incredibly dangerous cyclone this morning with 145 mph winds, although the storm should encounter some wind shear in a day or two and weaken moderately.

However, by the time it reaches the vicinity of the Bahamas in five days' time and approaches Florida, it should re-strengthen to near category 4 status.

The latest models, shown below, portray three potential scenarios for Ike, two of which are disastrous for the United States.



The scenarios include:

1. South Florida strike: I spoke with a hurricane scientist I know in Miami yesterday and he was quite concerned about this possibility. The models certainly support this, and the heat potential of the waters near the Bahamas and Florida is quite high enough to support a major hurricane.

2. Re-Curve into the Atlantic: The GFS model has been advertising this solution for a couple of days now. The Bahamas would still likely get hammered, but the mainland United States would be spared. This scenario is most consistent with the climatology outlined below.

3. Northeast U.S. Coast: As bad as a strike on Miami would be, a strike on New York is worse. (How do you evacuate 4 million people from New York?). A major hurricane striking New York remains a low threat, high consequence scenario, even with Ike. But the climatology below suggests its possible, and some models have been hinting at such a scenario.

The official forecast track allows for all of the possibilities above.

What about the Gulf of Mexico? It's still entirely possible Ike could reach the Gulf, but such an eventuality seems historically unlikely at this time. Between 1900 and 2006, 95 storms have passed within 150 nautical miles of its present location.

Of the 95 storms, only seven have struck the United States. Just one, Hurricane Four of the 1901 Atlantic season, reached the Gulf of Mexico. It hit Grand Isle, Louisiana on Aug. 14, producing levee breaches which flooded New Orleans.





Great post! A perfect reminder for everyone, especially the model worshipers, of how little we know and how unpredictable the weather still is. Hurricane season is no time to be smug with your science. By the way, I'm finishing up reading "Issac's Storm" by Eric Larson. It's a very good account of the great 1900 storm that hit Galveston. I highly recommend it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


It's over land now. Tracking the remains of TD5 over SW Georgia.


That thing just won't go away will it....

Off topic, but I wish they's hurry up and open the Gulf waters for commercial fishing, shrimping and oystering. I'm ready to make some gumbo without paying 100 bucks for imported junk. The waters off D. Island are as clean as a whistle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gearsts:
Olga in 07


Had to look that one up. I did not remember it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Makes me a little nervous that same guy predicting less active season. Lol

August 13, 2010
As we enter the heart of hurricane season, it's dead quiet out there


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3067. Vero1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3066. WxLogic
Areas to watch:



In red we have of course ex-TD5.

In yellow we have a persistent 500MB pocket of higher vorticity E of FL (just like ex-TD5 used to be) and under almost the same atmospheric conditions. There's a potential for brief organization with this disturbance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3065. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:
20% on 1 will probably be a fish....hope so anyway.


It's over land now. Tracking the remains of TD5 over SW Georgia.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
20% on 1 will probably be a fish....hope so anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3063. IKE
ATL ocean....20% on 1.
East PAC.....20% on 1.
Cent PAC.....near 0% on 1.
West PAC.....nothing.
Indian Ocean.nothing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3062. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
18N19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
13W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N53W TO 13N51W TO 8N46W MOVING W 20
KT. WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS
AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO WEST AFRICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 15N-16N
BETWEEN 50W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
9N-10N BETWEEN 75W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
ALONG 92W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 89W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 9N30W 9N50W 10N61W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh...wow...that's not good. Thanks for the info. Hopefully the steering patterns will change and it will go out to sea. Or maybe not form at all.

Living here in Mobile, we have had our share of storms/hurricanes. Though I find them incredibly fascinating and somewhat awe inspiring....I like my air conditioning too much to want one to come this way! (Among other reasons like property damage and loss of life of course...) ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Been reading about the long range models. I found an interesting article along those lines. And I didn't even read the GW part. But the first part reminds me of...Famous Last Words. :) Houston Chronical Link


sciguy
| Hurricane Central
SciGuy
A science blog with Eric Berger

September 04, 2008
Why Ike's less likely to visit the Gulf.


Hurricane Ike remains an incredibly dangerous cyclone this morning with 145 mph winds, although the storm should encounter some wind shear in a day or two and weaken moderately.

However, by the time it reaches the vicinity of the Bahamas in five days' time and approaches Florida, it should re-strengthen to near category 4 status.

The latest models, shown below, portray three potential scenarios for Ike, two of which are disastrous for the United States.



The scenarios include:

1. South Florida strike: I spoke with a hurricane scientist I know in Miami yesterday and he was quite concerned about this possibility. The models certainly support this, and the heat potential of the waters near the Bahamas and Florida is quite high enough to support a major hurricane.

2. Re-Curve into the Atlantic: The GFS model has been advertising this solution for a couple of days now. The Bahamas would still likely get hammered, but the mainland United States would be spared. This scenario is most consistent with the climatology outlined below.

3. Northeast U.S. Coast: As bad as a strike on Miami would be, a strike on New York is worse. (How do you evacuate 4 million people from New York?). A major hurricane striking New York remains a low threat, high consequence scenario, even with Ike. But the climatology below suggests its possible, and some models have been hinting at such a scenario.

The official forecast track allows for all of the possibilities above.

What about the Gulf of Mexico? It's still entirely possible Ike could reach the Gulf, but such an eventuality seems historically unlikely at this time. Between 1900 and 2006, 95 storms have passed within 150 nautical miles of its present location.

Of the 95 storms, only seven have struck the United States. Just one, Hurricane Four of the 1901 Atlantic season, reached the Gulf of Mexico. It hit Grand Isle, Louisiana on Aug. 14, producing levee breaches which flooded New Orleans.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3057. Gearsts
Quoting heretolearninPR:
Storms I have been through

1996 Hurricane Bertha
1996 Hurricane Hortense
1998 Hurricane Georges
2004 Tropical storm Jeanne

Not too many. I moved to Puerto Rico in 1996 and thought that was a typical year. We have been blessed since Georges, although Jeanne knocked out water and power for a week. It was a very strong tropical storm when it hit us.
Olga in 07
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1017
Not so hot there:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nearly 6hours late, but...
exTD5 has turned from heading north and east, and most recently has been heading due south.
- Date - - Time - - - - Location
14Aug 06amUTC - 32.5N86.5W
14Aug 12pmUTC - 32.8N85.8W
14Aug 06pmUTC - 33.0N85.5W
15Aug 12amUTC - 32.8N85.5W
15Aug 06amGMT - 32.5N85.5W

Copy&paste 32.5N86.5W-32.8N85.8W, 32.5N86.5W, 32.8N85.8W-33.0N85.5W, 33.0N85.5W-32.8N85.5W, 32.8N85.5W-32.5N85.5W, msy, apf into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I wouldn't be so sure about that.


Good Morning! What are your thoughts? East coast? GOM? (Hope not!) :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3052. pottery
Quoting msphar:
Good Morning Pottery, I see that next wave is about to reach the islands bringing some squally weather your way. It will reach the Northern islands a bit later according to Chris Parket - Monday night into Tuesday. So you shall have some rain to go with your unseasonably cool air. Perhaps it will snow ?

LOL
We could also hope for a week of hot-sun. Snow would be interesting though, and the way 2010 is going I would not be surprised at anything!
We did have hail some years ago, so why not snow?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storms I have been through

1996 Hurricane Bertha
1996 Hurricane Hortense
1998 Hurricane Georges
2004 Tropical storm Jeanne

Not too many. I moved to Puerto Rico in 1996 and thought that was a typical year. We have been blessed since Georges, although Jeanne knocked out water and power for a week. It was a very strong tropical storm when it hit us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3049. msphar
Good Morning Pottery, I see that next wave is about to reach the islands bringing some squally weather your way. It will reach the Northern islands a bit later according to Chris Parket - Monday night into Tuesday. So you shall have some rain to go with your unseasonably cool air. Perhaps it will snow ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The winds you reference are at 900mb, which is about 3000 feet, not surface.


either way it will probably be a TS if winds at 3000 ft are at 50 knts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


That shows this becoming a 50knt storm... I think we will see Danielle out of this and then Earl out of the potential GFS storm


The winds you reference are at 900mb, which is about 3000 feet, not surface.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mobile, AL here....partly cloudy right now and humid of course...lol...had some good downpours yesterday...hope that if TD5 does reform it is quick and small with no damage or flooding...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06Z HWRF 05L Surface is bottom right hand corner





That shows this becoming a 50knt storm... I think we will see Danielle out of this and then Earl out of the potential GFS storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3042. IKE
The Atlantic Basin Remains Quiet For Now

Aug 15, 2010 7:34 AM

The remains of Tropical Depression 5 will help to enhance the thunderstorm activity across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the Deep South over the next couple of days. Due to the storm's slow motion, heavy rainfall and flash flooding are a concern across parts of this area. A lack of upper-level support will keep the remnants from moving a great distance making flooding a concern. The heaviest rainfall is expected during the afternoon and evening, across the southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. By early next week, the system may actually loop south back toward the central Gulf Coast, with a very slight chance for regeneration.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, there are no other areas of concern with potential to develop tropically over the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Donald Pillittere
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3041. pottery
Hello, and Good Morning.
The Temp bottomed out at 73F here this morning...
This is 'freezing' for August, and most unusual.
Bright sky and birdies singing.
Real nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
06Z HWRF 05L Surface is bottom right hand corner





Edit: Add surface wind speeds

HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -89.20 LAT: 29.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -90.10 LAT: 30.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -90.70 LAT: 30.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is pretty impressive to see remnants of TD5 with 20% chance of becoming TD5 again considering it is & has been on land for several days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The model run shown on Tropical Atlantic show ex-TD5 moving north, south and west,,,,,anyone have any real idea,or is it too early???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3037. Gearsts
href="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/wave/00/index_sw3_m_loop.shtml" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1017
3036. IKE
LOL...I posted that before reading it...SW Georgia???...if it's moving south that would come out in Apalachee Bay. South of Tallahassee,FL. Maybe it would have more time over water? Than again...NHC only gives a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3035. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND
COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MONDAY WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting aquak9:
hi homeless.

i consider ya'll my friends, and that makes everyone beautiful in my eyes.

ok, yeah I felt like CW was too aggressive w/the low in the gulf, but I gotta do a wait-n-see on the eastern atlantic situation.


He might be right, a tropical cyclone sitting over 31C waters and a low shear environment is never a good thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3033. msphar
From 17W where the next wave lies to the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico where my boat is moored is roughly 49 degrees. That distance converts to a little more than 8 days in travel time for the wave. Much can happen in that time. It will be fun to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Floater on 05L


Morning Storm. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3031. aquak9
AAUURRGHH sporteguy you got me!!


shame on you!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
For the people posting their storm experiences: What are your criteria for determining which storms you've been through? Tropical storm winds? Damage? Proximity to center?



Mine was where I lived at what time cause I don't remmber 90% of them. Although I know I was here. Getting old is a marvelous thing. :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3029. aquak9
g'morning Seenya Cheef.

Freak91- probably damage. That's what people fear the most, that's what gets carved into the memory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3028. aquak9
hi homeless.

i consider ya'll my friends, and that makes everyone beautiful in my eyes.

ok, yeah I felt like CW was too aggressive w/the low in the gulf, but I gotta do a wait-n-see on the eastern atlantic situation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mornin' all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For the people posting their storm experiences: What are your criteria for determining which storms you've been through? Tropical storm winds? Damage? Proximity to center?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3075 - 3025

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.