Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

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1605. It has 36+ hours over land and only a little over 30 over water to develop. I doubt in that situation it would become anything named however it could be grave nuisance to a fairly drenched LA.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
1624. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ALONG 26N WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUE...THEN
WEAKEN AND SHIFT N TO NEAR 29N WED AND THU. A WEAK LOW INLAND
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK S TO NEAR MOBILE
ALABAMA SUN NIGHT...THEN DRIFT W TO SW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND NE TEXAS TUE AND WED.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO INLAND HONDURAS
WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE FROM 17N70W TO NE COLOMBIA IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH NEAR 80W BY SUN EVENING...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THEN PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THU. THE WAVE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1623. SLU
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning everyone!!! Afternoon to some....


Now this is creepy.... The old farmers almanac is in line with the GFS 16 day for a landfall hurricane in Florida.... Sure hope this is wrong!!!!

AUGUST 2010: temperature 81° (avg.); precipitation 5.5" (2" below avg.);
Aug 1-6: Scattered t-storms, seasonable;
Aug 7-14: Scattered t-storms, hot;
Aug 15-20: Sunny, seasonable;
Aug 21-26: Scattered t-storms, hot;
Aug 27-30: Scattered t-storms, cooler;
Aug 31: Possible hurricane.

SEPTEMBER 2010: temperature 80° (avg.); precipitation 10" (3" above avg.);
Sep 1-2: Possible hurricane;
Sep 3-5: Sunny, seasonable;
Sep 6-10: Scattered t-storms, cool;
Sep 11-16: Scattered t-storms, warm;
Sep 17-23: Heavy t-storms, seasonable;
Sep 24-27: Sunny, warm;
Sep 28-30: T-storms, warm.




Now that's scary
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1622. tkeith
Quoting GetReal:
It will be interesting to see how far it drifts back out into the open waters of the N. GOM... UL conditions will be better for development the second time around, and it will be a slow mover....
I may have to buy a goat for my lawn by the end of next week...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning everyone!!! Afternoon to some....


Now this is creepy.... The old farmers almanac is in line with the GFS 16 day for a landfall hurricane in Florida.... Sure hope this is wrong!!!!

AUGUST 2010: temperature 81° (avg.); precipitation 5.5" (2" below avg.);
Aug 1-6: Scattered t-storms, seasonable;
Aug 7-14: Scattered t-storms, hot;
Aug 15-20: Sunny, seasonable;
Aug 21-26: Scattered t-storms, hot;
Aug 27-30: Scattered t-storms, cooler;
Aug 31: Possible hurricane.

SEPTEMBER 2010: temperature 80° (avg.); precipitation 10" (3" above avg.);
Sep 1-2: Possible hurricane;
Sep 3-5: Sunny, seasonable;
Sep 6-10: Scattered t-storms, cool;
Sep 11-16: Scattered t-storms, warm;
Sep 17-23: Heavy t-storms, seasonable;
Sep 24-27: Sunny, warm;
Sep 28-30: T-storms, warm.



Two hurricanes and a strong wave over Africa, that's one of the scariest models I've seen this month.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1620. GetReal
It will be interesting to see how far it drifts back out into the open waters of the N. GOM... UL conditions will be better for development the second time around, and it will be a slow mover....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mcluvincane:


Um... that's doesn't look good at all. Holy crap!


Just interesting... Not trying to cause any drama at all... Just think it is interesting when things start to line up... Now lets see if any of this stuff holds up.. I do remember Levi a couple a days ago talking about this set up...
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
DestinJeff must be sleeping in..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
1617. pottery
Quoting StormW:


WOW!
Never seen the ITCZ that "zonal" before.

Where the 'gaps' are...
how do we detirmine what is ITCZ and what is not ?
I thought the ITCZ was a continuous 'line', all the time.
The convergence zone. Is there no convergence there ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1616. Patrap
Quoting tkeith:
1605. StormW 10:24 AM CDT on August 14, 2010

It's pretty evident via Sat images it's started the loop de loop...

BTW...nice Sat link Pat, I didn't have that.


The NEXSAt Imagery is way cool for the detailed look and I like the Long Loop too.

Def one to bookmark,,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning everyone!!! Afternoon to some....


Now this is creepy.... The old farmers almanac is in line with the GFS 16 day for a landfall hurricane in Florida.... Sure hope this is wrong!!!!

AUGUST 2010: temperature 81° (avg.); precipitation 5.5" (2" below avg.);
Aug 1-6: Scattered t-storms, seasonable;
Aug 7-14: Scattered t-storms, hot;
Aug 15-20: Sunny, seasonable;
Aug 21-26: Scattered t-storms, hot;
Aug 27-30: Scattered t-storms, cooler;
Aug 31: Possible hurricane.

SEPTEMBER 2010: temperature 80° (avg.); precipitation 10" (3" above avg.);
Sep 1-2: Possible hurricane;
Sep 3-5: Sunny, seasonable;
Sep 6-10: Scattered t-storms, cool;
Sep 11-16: Scattered t-storms, warm;
Sep 17-23: Heavy t-storms, seasonable;
Sep 24-27: Sunny, warm;
Sep 28-30: T-storms, warm.




Um... that's doesn't look good at all. Holy crap!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning, everyone.
Member Since: August 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 102
1612. tkeith
Quoting HurricaneDanielle:
hi keith.
mornin...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
1610. tkeith
1605. StormW 10:24 AM CDT on August 14, 2010

It's pretty evident via Sat images it's started the loop de loop...

BTW...nice Sat link Pat, I didn't have that.
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
1609. GetReal
Pat it appears to me, on that loop(NexSat), that xTD5 has already begun to slowly drift towards the SE. I am surprised at how well defined the structure has remained intact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1608. Patrap
Expect to see the Atlantic, crank up...?

Well,,it does every year after Aug 15th Historically.

Am I seer?

U betcha.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Has there ever been a case where a low reemerged over water, such as former TD5 is forecast to, and became anything of significance? I remember Ivan reemerged but remained weak.


I think it became a 60mph TS which isn't exactly something to laugh about.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Morning everyone!!! Afternoon to some....


Now this is creepy.... The old farmers almanac is in line with the GFS 16 day for a landfall hurricane in Florida.... Sure hope this is wrong!!!!

AUGUST 2010: temperature 81° (avg.); precipitation 5.5" (2" below avg.);
Aug 1-6: Scattered t-storms, seasonable;
Aug 7-14: Scattered t-storms, hot;
Aug 15-20: Sunny, seasonable;
Aug 21-26: Scattered t-storms, hot;
Aug 27-30: Scattered t-storms, cooler;
Aug 31: Possible hurricane.

SEPTEMBER 2010: temperature 80° (avg.); precipitation 10" (3" above avg.);
Sep 1-2: Possible hurricane;
Sep 3-5: Sunny, seasonable;
Sep 6-10: Scattered t-storms, cool;
Sep 11-16: Scattered t-storms, warm;
Sep 17-23: Heavy t-storms, seasonable;
Sep 24-27: Sunny, warm;
Sep 28-30: T-storms, warm.


Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
1603. barbamz
TD5: Really interesting system, changing like a chameleon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1602. SLU
Looks like the blob affecting Barbados with heavy showers, thunderstorms and 35 - 40mph wind gusts is associated with a surface trough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Taking Michael to the Children's Museum in Charleston today, but for those of you keeping an eye on the area of the SC coast...This looks like the best buoy for now. According to the GFS the area will drift S and then back N over the next few days.



Were going to the Naval Aviation Museum at Penscola NAS tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1600. tkeith
1595. wunderkidcayman

Which Island you on wunderkid?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
1599. pottery
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HPC provides Caribbean Precipitation Forecasts.

Many thanks for that.
Had not seen it before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1598. Patrap
NEXSAT SE USA Animated loop with DEWPOINT-5 Circulation
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Taking Michael to the Children's Museum in Charleston today, but for those of you keeping an eye on the area off the SC coast...This looks like the best buoy for now. According to the GFS the area will drift S and then back N over the next few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1. scott39 I am not a kid I only have kid in my username just to make me feel younger that is all

2. scott39 I am not saying that all of the storms that come off of there will come into the Caribbean I am just saying that I feel that this one is more likely now if you look at the model runs you can see the storm shifting further and further south and west

3. the new surface maps are out





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1594. IKE
13-7-4 JFV...that's been my numbers for 6 months.

Right now it's at 3-1-0. That would leave 10-6-4 if I'm correct.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1592. Patrap
NEXSAT SE USA Dewpoint-5 Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting KBH:
does noaa provide info on itcz activity such as expected rainfall levels, flood alerts etc? Looks of lots of activity in that zone for a the next few days - flooding seems to be likely for the C'bean island in the near future


HPC provides Caribbean Precipitation Forecasts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1590. pottery
Quoting HurricaneDanielle:
your ready for the cape Verde seeds, pottery? here they come

Ready??
I hoisted a 6' x 6' shower-curtain (of the Approved design) up on a 40' bamboo pole over my house. Like a flag.
I'm going to be fine.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1589. Patrap
Admin Notice:

Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Go away Janiel.. sheesh.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
1587. barbamz
What's the colour of the Atlantic's hurricane pathway right now?

I just stumbled over this (don't know whether it can be taken serious):

Ocean's Color Affects Hurricane Paths
ScienceDaily (Aug. 13, 2010) —
A change in the color of ocean waters could have a drastic effect on the prevalence of hurricanes, new research indicates. In a simulation of such a change in one region of the North Pacific, the study finds that hurricane formation decreases by 70 percent. That would be a big drop for a region that accounts for more than half the world's reported hurricane-force winds.
More: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100813121916.htm

Greetings from Germany to ole TD5 ...
(Probably we are going to get hammered by rain from Italy tomorrow. Things are difficult to forecast, our weather service says).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Ex-TD5's on the move southward.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
1584. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
1565. Patrap 10:08 AM CDT on August 14, 2010

I dont trust my eyes Pat. But from that loop it seemed the remnant Low is either stationary or beginning the SE turn some have been forecating.

I cant tell...


You can see the spin on satellite.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1583. Patrap
328
fxus64 klix 140850
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
350 am CDT Sat Aug 14 2010


Synopsis...
center of remnants of dew point 5 appear to be between Meridian and
Tuscaloosa this morning. Scattered showers have developed over the
coastal waters and near the coast. Cell movement is to the
northeast at 15 kts...so threat of flash flooding appears to be
minimal in the short term.
&&


Short term...
remnants/upper low will gradually rotate back toward the area
around the east end of the Texas upper ridge...reaching the coast
again near Pensacola Sunday night and moving westward back across
the area Monday and Tuesday. Still seeing significant model
differences in details...especially in wind fields. GFS appears to
have feedback issues...with one effect producing 45 knots winds over
coastal waters...even while surface low remains over land.
European model (ecmwf)/NAM solutions are weaker and generally trended toward these
solutions.


Airmass remains extremely moist and diurnal development of
convection will continue...with 12 hour areal coverage around
50-60 percent next several days. Cell movement today should
prevent widespread heavy rain amounts...so will get rid of Flash Flood
Watch. Expect one may be needed again around Monday or Tuesday as
low returns. Will mention locally heavy rain in daytime periods in
forecast. Temperatures will be much closer to normal due to the
additional clouds and precipitation. 35
&&


Long term...
all models move system west into western Louisiana and Texas
Wednesday...as Florida ridge builds westward toward end of week.
This will allow some drying across the area at the end of the
week...with some warming of temperatures. Probability of precipitation will remain in the
chance daytime range...slight chance at night. 35
&&


Aviation...
very low IFR conditions in fog and stratus will continue through at
least 11z around kmcb...with mainly MVFR conditions elsewhere due to
light br. Prevailing visibilities will improve after 13-14z with mainly VFR
weather expected the remainder of the day. There will be numerous
shra/tsra...some with mainly brief periods of IFR/MVFR...starting in
coastal areas this morning...and gradually spreading inland this
afternoon. 22/dew point
&&


Marine...
west to southwest winds near 15 knots were reported at many of the
marine observations offshore...and these winds are likely to
continue this morning before settling down to 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon. Seas near 3 feet may approach 4 feet in some of the
eastern waters today. An area of weak low pressure over south
central Alabama is expected to drift back south into the southwest
Alabama and western Florida Panhandle region on Sunday.


Going into Monday through the middle of next week...the details of
the forecast will depend on the timing...exact movement...and
strength of the surface low that the models show moving west back
towards the Mississippi and southeast Louisiana coasts on Monday
into Tuesday morning. Have gone close to the GFS for timing...but
closer to the NAM regarding strength. The GFS continues to show
winds near to exceeding gale force...and have backed off
significantly with maximum winds closer to 20 knots late Sunday
night through Tuesday. Even if sustained winds do not get
stronger...it is likely there will be numerous gusts over 30 knots
from scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Conditions will improve by
Wednesday into Thursday as the low pulls away to the west and
northwest. 22/dew point
&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 90 75 93 76 / 50 20 40 30
btr 92 78 94 78 / 50 20 40 30
asd 89 78 91 79 / 60 20 60 30
msy 91 79 91 80 / 60 20 50 30
gpt 89 78 90 78 / 60 30 60 30
pql 89 78 90 78 / 60 30 70 30


&&


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&


$$
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
1581. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Dead giveaway.

^_^
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
1580. unf97
Looks like a rather nice MCC has developed off the coast of Georgetown, SC. Impressive storm tops shown there on IR imagery.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1579. KBH
point well taken,shall have to let the experts know of that
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1578. Patrap
Quoting tkeith:
1565. Patrap 10:08 AM CDT on August 14, 2010

I dont trust my eyes Pat. But from that loop it seemed the remnant Low is either stationary or beginning the SE turn some have been forecating.

I cant tell...



Shhhssshh.


Were keeping dat on the ,er..low fer now.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Morning stoopid...Yep, those storms were nasty yesterday. Some of the best lightening I've seen in a while. I should have gone out and taken some pictures. All that lightening is actually what made me look at the coastal waters this morning to see if anything looked like it might start spinning up. Seems I remember storms like that before Gaston formed...Then there was an almost system that produced that same kind of lightening a few years ago that thelmores and I were talking about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1575. tkeith
1565. Patrap 10:08 AM CDT on August 14, 2010

I dont trust my eyes Pat. But from that loop it seemed the remnant Low is either stationary or beginning the SE turn some have been forecating.

I cant tell...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937

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