Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:

+10



thanks
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Quoting HurricaneDanielle:
Where does it take it?




why not you look at the mode runs and you find out
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Quoting btwntx08:

then why is it close to coming off the coast already


Rob...PGI28L is not a problem. PGI30L is the one the models all develop. This one doesn't come off until tomorrow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why is everyone making a big deal out of the SAL..the first wave is going to sacrifice itself to the SAL and not to mention ALL of the Global models develop this system so most likely something will likely come out of this AFrican wave that will emerge in about 3 days
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1871. pottery
Quoting StormW:


That's a good question.

Here's a good article:
ITCZ

AH!! You Da Man, Storm!
Thank you for that.
So I interpret that to mean that the 'gaps' are considered 'fronts' in this instance.
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1867. xcool



12z ECMW
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1866. xcool



nice image...

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Quoting btwntx08:

but that aint the system the models develop miami mention this one is going to sal and need to survive its self


The one that will sacrifice itself is PGI28L. PGI30L is new, its the one we need to watch closely.
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Oh ok i guess everyone left. how are ya?
sheri


I'm good, Sheri...and you?
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Quoting HurricaneDanielle:
let see what the ECm shows, ^_^.


In about an hour.
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Quoting txsweetpea:


How can you tell what size system this is going over la into texas and then north?


That appears to be the late TD05, making it's questionable re-emergence over the GOM and moving west...this track is doubtable
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Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC...


12Z NOGAPS...


Thanks Ike...hope your having a great weekend...had a pretty strong storm pass through this morning...looks like more to come tonight/tomorrow...take care.

v/r

Jon
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
wow....



you do NOT need too keep posting that one time olny is good
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1847. xcool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM TD5 CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL IN EAST-
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EXTENDING WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CIRCULATION WILL
KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP THROUGH THE DAY (VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY). THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS DIDN`T
INDICATE MUCH OF ANY RECENT NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
LOW...MAINLY A SLOW EAST DRIFT TOWARD THE GA/AL STATE LINE. THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS POSITION AND TREND AND SHOW
IT BEGINNING TO TRACK SOUTH BACK TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE POP/QPF/SKY GRID CONFIGURATION BASED ON THESE LATEST
TRENDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK.

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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I see, the blog went blank for a few there. I guess nothing going on in the tropics so everyone is enjoying there weekend, it's raining here.
sheri

It was raining here but I thought I would send it towards you and share the rain.... LOL
and as for EX TD5 I think we are in for more wind and Rain by Monday night and Tuesday....

Taco :o)
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Quoting JRRP:
WOW
Link


How can you tell what size system this is going over la into texas and then north?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

the one behind it


No, its PGI30L
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Quoting taco2me61:

Not all Of us Beautiful :o)

just lurking :o)
Taco :o)


I see, the blog went blank for a few there. I guess nothing going on in the tropics so everyone is enjoying there weekend, it's raining here.
sheri
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Taz don't acknowledge him at all. No one has.

so what do u think about td5
sheri



its not a TD any more
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Quoting Tazmanian:
JFV plzs this go a way


Taz don't acknowledge him at all. No one has.

so what do u think about td5
sheri
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Oh ok i guess everyone left. how are ya?
sheri

Not all Of us Beautiful :o)

just lurking :o)
Taco :o)
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1838. IKE
12Z CMC...


12Z NOGAPS...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1836. Ossqss
Good (related to this blog) read from Pielke if interested.

Heat Wave In Russia – Is It From Global Warming?

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Quoting Floodman:


It's the Navy site; they have a security certificate issue, but it doesn't eefect you...just some screwed up paperwork on thier end


yah - who has time for paperwork these days, LOL!

They are so short staffed over there recently it is amazing that we get all the data that we do!
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Quoting Floodman:


It's the Navy site; they have a security certificate issue, but it doesn't eefect you...just some screwed up paperwork on thier end


Oh ok i guess everyone left. how are ya?
sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


when you click the link it says untrusted site. can you still go on it or is something wrong with it.
sheri


It's the Navy site; they have a security certificate issue, but it doesn't eefect you...just some screwed up paperwork on thier end
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:

yes
'

/Thank you both.
sheri
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1827. JRRP
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


when you click the link it says untrusted site. can you still go on it or is something wrong with it.
sheri

yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1826. Michfan
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


when you click the link it says untrusted site. can you still go on it or is something wrong with it.
sheri


Typical govt site certificate. Its perfectly safe. Just click ok to continue on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:
WOW
Link


when you click the link it says untrusted site. can you still go on it or is something wrong with it.
sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.