Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting beell:


Didja notice the "Possible Tropical Cyclone" in the GOM?
Yeah, that's one of the two possibles... After looking at what OPC has drawn for tomorrow, I'm buying that weird westward turn for x-TD5 a little more than before. Thing is, it won't be quite TD-5 anymore; it'll be the "frontalized" version... lol
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Patrap, is the center of the mess that was TD 5 on the MS/AL border?
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Quoting beell:


LOL, nrt. I know you posted this link a day or so back. Forgot to save it for this very common FAQ. Done, and thanks!

xTD 5 looks very straight forward as far as retaining its name. No uncertainty regarding another disturbance.


Link to the whole plan. Lots of good info in there.
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2470. K8eCane
pretty boring in here...which is always good...back to facebook
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Dead Air.. How does one learn about HAM radio operations and such? And what could someone expect to spend in intial costs to get started? Just curious.
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Sorry folks, I almost quoted and had to go back and delete...

2455. katrinakat5 9:47 PM EDT on August 14, 2010

So you are saying only eight more storms between now and Nov 30??? Fascinating....

You know, some of the bloggers actually would be happy if you were right. Unfortunately, we don't have much faith in what you say - unless you can show us on what you are basing your predictions. What is causing you to believe that current conditions will continue throughout the rest of the season?
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2467. beell
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, this is what Tuesday is supposed to look like.



I'm seeing 2 potential AOIs by then, and really not liking that high setup, since it brings whatever west possibly into the Caribbean and if not possibly towards the SE US coast.

Hmmm. I'm tninking if we get another coloured circle tomorrow I can still hold on to my 15 Aug. deadline... lol


Didja notice the "Possible Tropical Cyclone" in the GOM?
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2466. Halyn
Patrap .. "The Greatest Generation is a term well bestowed on them,,all."

You are so right, Pat! As a member of the next generation .. one of the things I grew up knowing was that my Dad loved us enough to put his life on the line for us. It made a difference .. :)
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This doesn't look very good.
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2464. msphar
Alls quiet on the Eastern front! We've got Peace in our time. and thank goodness for that.
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2463. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Ya gotta bring up the difficult one. From what I have read there was a lot of internal debate at NHC on that, whether it should have remained 10 or not. I was just quoting the official policy in the National Hurricane Operations Plan, Chapter 3.


LOL, nrt. I know you posted this link a day or so back. Forgot to save it for this very common FAQ. Done, and thanks!

xTD 5 looks very straight forward as far as retaining its name. No uncertainty regarding another disturbance.
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Quoting Relix:


Why are storms hitting the Central American any good? It really irks me when US people talk about a storm not hitting their mainland but hitting in other places where loss of life will be worse. From what I've read here over the years some do expect storms to pass over the islands to weaken the storms so USA doesn't get the full brunt of the impact. Guys.. people do live outside the USA.

Sorry, just had to rant that. It's been bothering me for a very good while. The comment is not aimed at you Baha, it's just something spontaneous.
Some have said that whatever this person forecasts, it's the OPPOSITE that happens. So does that mean EVERY major storm that forms will make landfall in the US????

I get ur drift and agree with you.
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2460. Patrap



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2457. K8eCane
in case yall havent drummed up a cane yet, here i am
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That stupid frontal boundary in the Atlintic has pretty much shut the whole season down for now.
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Quoting W4JWM:
- Jim -

James W. Menefee, Jr. P.A.

The Origin of - "KISS"

"The supreme goal of all theory is to
make the irreducible basic elements as
simple and as few as possible without
having to surrender the adequate
representation of a single datum of
experience." ..... Albert Einstein
Hey there, and welcome to the blog. This sounds pretty interesting, though I am not certain how many of our bloggers are familiar enough with ham radio to be of much use to you. However, I'd make two suggestions:

1) WunderMail to Dr. Masters about your ideas. You should see a link for that on the right hand side of the blog, near the top. He prolly knows more about what setting up a project like this involves than the rest of us, but may not see your post in the midst of all the others.

2)You might want to contact CaicosRetiredSailor, who I am certain would be very interested indeed in your project. You can find him by looking at member blogs at the top of this page.

Good luck!
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2453. Relix
Quoting BahaHurican:
One can always hope, yes? Unfortunately I've seen highs like this produce storms that end up crossing the US coastline.... mainly because they don't stay solid enough to drive storms into Central America, and they don't give quickly enough to force a recurve over the sea.

We'll have to see what happens.


Why are storms hitting the Central American any good? It really irks me when US people talk about a storm not hitting their mainland but hitting in other places where loss of life will be worse. From what I've read here over the years some do expect storms to pass over the islands to weaken the storms so USA doesn't get the full brunt of the impact. Guys.. people do live outside the USA.

Sorry, just had to rant that. It's been bothering me for a very good while. The comment is not aimed at you Baha, it's just something spontaneous.
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Quoting beell:


In contrast, we had TD 10 in August of 2005. That one dissapated also. Remnants merged with a tropical wave and organized. It got a new name. TD 12. Then it got another name. The "K" storm that year.


Ya gotta bring up the difficult one. From what I have read there was a lot of internal debate at NHC on that, whether it should have remained 10 or not. I was just quoting the official policy in the National Hurricane Operations Plan, Chapter 3.
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2451. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


big picture
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting beell:


In contrast, we had TD 10 in August of 2005. That one dissapated also. Remnants merged with a tropical wave and organized. It got a new name. TD 12. Then it got another name. The "K" storm that year.


goosebumps...
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2449. xcool
beell .yep 100% true.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2448. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


As long as it is identified as a remnant of TD5 it would still be TD5 if it regenerates.


In contrast, we had TD 10 in August of 2005. That one dissapated also. Remnants merged with a tropical wave and organized. It got a new name. TD 12. Then it got another name. The "K" storm that year.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I went out on the beach at midnight with my 13 yo daughter... We sat out there for an hour or so shooting and hoping.. I saw a few but they are so faint and the light pollution is to high... Maybe on top of a mountain or something I would have better luck...


I remember as a kid (many many decades ago) lying on the beach and watching the August meteor shower (never knew what it was called or why it was happening) but now I know not only why but exactly WHEN, yet I cant catch a single shooting star these days! Man I have so many wishes ready to go! Back then I had to think about it!
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From the Day 3 Forecast from HPC:

CENTRAL GULF COAST....THE MID TROP DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MAKE
SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS. A SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKELY TO FORM IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. HEAVY PRECIP IS INDICATED OVER SOUTHERN
MS AND ESPECIALLY LA.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2445. Halyn
Quoting msgambler:
Please don't quote him. I have him on ignore.
I'm with you, gambler .. I have taz on ignore .. and I get tired of seeing his childishness being quoted .. leaving the only option of ignorning the ones who quote him .. and I hate to do that as some of them I enjoy.
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Quoting katrinakat5:
i really think the way the high is set up the us will be spared in 2010...
One can always hope, yes? Unfortunately I've seen highs like this produce storms that end up crossing the US coastline.... mainly because they don't stay solid enough to drive storms into Central America, and they don't give quickly enough to force a recurve over the sea.

We'll have to see what happens.
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Quoting RMM34667:


Thanks for the response. I try to get the young ones involved in my hobby and love when THEY ask the difficult questions. And I wanted to ask you the other night. Since you photograph lightening, did you try to get any of the meteor shower? I would think the dynamics where the same. You are trying to capture something before it even happens.


I went out on the beach at midnight with my 13 yo daughter... We sat out there for an hour or so shooting and hoping.. I saw a few but they are so faint and the light pollution is to high... Maybe on top of a mountain or something I would have better luck...
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Well, this is what Tuesday is supposed to look like.



I'm seeing 2 potential AOIs by then, and really not liking that high setup, since it brings whatever west possibly into the Caribbean and if not possibly towards the SE US coast.

Hmmm. I'm tninking if we get another coloured circle tomorrow I can still hold on to my 15 Aug. deadline... lol
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Quoting RMM34667:


OK I did the check NHC and read back at least 200 comments. But I am so lost here on the West Central Coast of Florida. IS TD5 coming back where it started? and if it does (conversation I had with my 9 year old nephew today) does it Stay TD5 or become TD6?

The answer is probably back there after 200 comments. But if I red them all then I'd never catch up!


As long as it is identified as a remnant of TD5 it would still be TD5 if it regenerates.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I think it would become a new TD since it was never named and (I believe) became a non-tropical system.... But I never thought (bad example here but) they would have renamed Ivan, Ivan again... So I dont know what the NHC will do in this case


Thanks for the response. I try to get the young ones involved in my hobby and love when THEY ask the difficult questions. And I wanted to ask you the other night. Since you photograph lightening, did you try to get any of the meteor shower? I would think the dynamics where the same. You are trying to capture something before it even happens.
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2438. palmpt
Quoting W4JWM:
Test


Back to you test...
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2435. W4JWM
Test
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Quoting sebastianflorida:
Feel like I am in a dark alley and someones going to jump out around the corner and say boo or something


BOO!
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Quoting katrinakat5:
i really think the way the high is set up the us will be spared in 2010...


Well, I'm not so sure. We've had 5 systems this year, 4 of which have been in the GOMEX. Tell you anything?
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Quoting RMM34667:


OK I did the check NHC and read back at least 200 comments. But I am so lost here on the West Central Coast of Florida. IS TD5 coming back where it started? and if it does (conversation I had with my 9 year old nephew today) does it Stay TD5 or become TD6?

The answer is probably back there after 200 comments. But if I red them all then I'd never catch up!


I think it would become a new TD since it was never named and (I believe) became a non-tropical system.... But I never thought (bad example here but) they would have renamed Ivan, Ivan again... So I dont know what the NHC will do in this case
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2431. W4JWM
After years of listening to a radio anomaly during a Hurricane, and after a long conversation with other colleagues, I have a bone with a lot of meat on it to throw out to professional MET's in the research biz.

To qualify myself, my name is Jim and I am an FCC licensed Professional R.F. (Radio Frequency) Systems Engineer located in Jacksonville, Fl.. As a hobby, I am also a licensed Extra Class Amateur Radio Operator since 1970. Over the years I have noticed an anomaly during Hurricanes on H.F. radio frequencies between 2 - 6 Mhz. of a "fluttering" on radio signals in regional areas of Hurricanes. This flutter sounds very much like listening to a Aeronautical Mobile flutter. For those of you who have never heard that, the faster the aircraft flies, the faster the rate of the flutter in the transmission. It resembles H.F. Aurora propagation.

In short, the anomaly is heard when a major tropical weather system is in or around HF radio stations. Prior to increasing a storms strength, the flutter dramatically increases in the rate of flutter 8-24 hours prior to the intensification of a hurricane. Inversely it has been noted that the same effect occurs in the reduction of the rate of flutter 6-8 hours prior to a decrease of intensification.

I can say with some confidence that the flutter effect is created by a combination of polarization shifts of the H.F. radio wave and also creating a Doppler shift effect. H.F. propagation is what I refer to as "soft", meaning it doesn't take a lot to create radio propagation changes within a 100-250 mile radius on the H.F. bands (3.5 Mhz.+/-). One intense lightening strike can ionize the lower portion of the D layer and absorb any RF energy in that band. A Northeaster without T-storm activity will increase the noise floor on that band 20-25 dBm and create a localized radio dead zone in the 75 meter bandwidth along the coast. However if there is a fair amount of T-storm activity, the noise floor stays low. The Space Shuttle launch will ionize areas below the D layer and in the D layer creating a radio absorption dead area.

So what does that have to do with the anomaly observed? My guess is that particles such as moisture, dust, and even wind increase in density which increases the amount of the static electromagnetic fields surrounding those individual particle. Because the particles move so rapidly and the dynamics of the density are so unstable the static electromagnetic fields of energy then creates an ionization field and becomes a refractive field at those radio frequencies, tumbling and churning in the rapid atmospheric of dynamic changes - shifting in polarization and creating a Doppler shift. Unlike a slow moving T-storm, this energy doesn't have the ability to peak, setup and discharge in the form of a lightening strike fast enough. While I don't live in the Midwest, it would also seem placeable that the same effect could occur in the creation of a Tornado on a smaller localized scale....

Several other noteworthy items are also seen. Because of a lack of qualitative information many things are unknown. We know that the anomaly is their, but important questions still remain. Between the transmitting station and receiving station, which station is the one that is located in the area of the radio anomaly? Is the receiving station or is the transmitting station below the effected ionized area or between it? Does this give any measure to the forecasting of storms intensity since it is heard as much as a day in advance? Etc, Etc. Like I said I am not a MET, but I do understand and have researched radio anomaly.

The best way to study this would to enlist the aid of licensed amateur radio operators through their national organisation the ARRL. It MUST be a not-for-profit research venture by a recognized entity such as a university, NOAH, NASA, NHC, etc. The stations would provide the date/time, their location, the location of the station being monitored, location of the center of the storm, rate of fade/fluter over a 5 second period, radio frequency. Because Hams have a network which covers the world, 25+ of their own satellites, stations both maritime, mobile, portable and stationary - this information can be collected and assembled even in a spread sheet form. All the Hams would ask in return would be some PR of their hobby and research collection efforts.

If you or someone you know would be interested interested in this project, I can assist in coordination of the field assets "hams" for the project. If you are qualified please feel free to contact me w4jwm@arrl.net .


- Jim -

James W. Menefee, Jr. P.A.

The Origin of - "KISS"

"The supreme goal of all theory is to
make the irreducible basic elements as
simple and as few as possible without
having to surrender the adequate
representation of a single datum of
experience." ..... Albert Einstein
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2430. Patrap


Buoys place in the Gulf of Mexico are vital to hurricane tracking as they provide key information as the storm moves.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


??? Wrong! The 0Z Euro was similar last night. Too early to say fish storm. It may be a fish or it maybe a US hit. Lots of ridging going on 8 to 10 days from now.


i agree at this point is 50/50. we have to wait, it is too early to call for a posible track of the two storms that GFS is developing.But for sure this blog will be fun this upcoming weeks CV season is finaly about to kick off.
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Feel like I am in a dark alley and someones going to jump out around the corner and say boo or something
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Looks like it will end up where it started... West coast of Fl.. LOL crazy year eh???


OK I did the check NHC and read back at least 200 comments. But I am so lost here on the West Central Coast of Florida. IS TD5 coming back where it started? and if it does (conversation I had with my 9 year old nephew today) does it Stay TD5 or become TD6?

The answer is probably back there after 200 comments. But if I red them all then I'd never catch up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.