Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

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Have a feeling the next MJO forecast chart from the GFS will show all green for the Atlantic basin...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Tazmanian:
beer for evere one am buying
Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
beer for evere one am buying
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2771. SLU
WOW. This is one of the nastiest runs of the GFS so far.
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2770. xcool


cmc 00z .huh hurricane
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Quoting MississippiWx:


? I think you left off the contraction part of that word.


you're right I did lol

its late
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by time all the storms are done we may not have a blog lol



it will be overe lodeed
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


not sure about that but you can be sure as heck he would post that GFS lol


? I think you left off the contraction part of that word.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
hope everyone is behaving now ;)

anyway, I think we might be finally getting a little break from the heat here in indiana! :P
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Ha...The GFS shows 4 named systems in 16 days on the 00z run.

Ike probably just rolled over in his sleep.


not sure about that but you can be sure as heck he wouldn't post that GFS lol
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Quoting aspectre:
2697 Kristina40 "I can't find any current tracks for ex TD 5 so any info on it is appreciated."

exTD5 appears to have turned from heading north and east, and toward heading due south.
- Date - - Time - - - - Location
14Aug 12amUTC - 32.0N87.3W
14Aug 06amUTC - 32.5N86.5W
14Aug 12pmUTC - 32.8N85.8W
14Aug 06pmUTC - 33.0N85.5W
15Aug 12amUTC - 32.8N85.5W

Copy&paste 32.0N87.3W, 32.5N86.5W, 32.8N85.8W, 33.0N85.5W-32.8N85.5W, msy, apf into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.


Awesome, thanks! I thought it had made a turn. I'm just tracking wind and pressure. My animals are starting to act crazy so I figure the low pressure is close.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Haven't seen a conus landfall for two days. Close to the carolina's, but no landfall. If you have something different i would like to see it.


there was a JAX/Georgia landfall yesterday. It has since then reversed to out to sea. Keep in mind though, both scenarios are very possible.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
2760. Levi32
Quoting JRRP:
creo que el GFS esta usando esteroides


No creo :P
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2758. xcool
haha
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2757. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ha...The GFS shows 4 named systems in 16 days on the 00z run.

Ike probably just rolled over in his sleep.


ROFL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2697 Kristina40 "I can't find any current tracks for ex TD 5 so any info on it is appreciated."

exTD5 appears to have turned from heading north and east, and toward heading due south.
- Date - - Time - - - - Location
14Aug 12amUTC - 32.0N87.3W
14Aug 06amUTC - 32.5N86.5W
14Aug 12pmUTC - 32.8N85.8W
14Aug 06pmUTC - 33.0N85.5W
15Aug 12amUTC - 32.8N85.5W

Copy&paste 32.0N87.3W, 32.5N86.5W, 32.8N85.8W, 33.0N85.5W-32.8N85.5W, msy, apf into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2754. xcool
people about act crazy in here ooh boy
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2753. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ha...The GFS shows 4 named systems in 16 days on the 00z run.

Ike probably just rolled over in his sleep.


LOL
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
2752. will45
the iditt wont have that handle very long prob be HurricaneEarl next
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Have some long days ahead of us.

Best get some rest.

Im out.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
2750. GetReal
that GFS forecasted system at 384 hours in the southern Caribbean has me concerned for my scheduled vacation!!! On that time table it would be possibly be in the GOM, as a major hurricane, just as I am scheduled to visit Levi in Alaska!!! Shucks....

I just knew that this was going to happen!
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Good night everyone!
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2746. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
x
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Hey guys i see the models are showing a lot of activity in the not to distant future
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Ha...The GFS shows 4 named systems in 16 days on the 00z run.

Ike probably just rolled over in his sleep.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2743. xcool
Stormchaser2007 LMAO
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Quoting HurricaneDanielle:


WHERE?


2739
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting btwntx08:
1 of 3 systems the gfs shows is a recurve other 2 watch out


Do you happen to have a link that I can see please?
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and move on.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
384 hours:

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I think JFV just found his new background image.


ROFL
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I think JFV just found his new background image.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
2733. Levi32
Now this one could hit the US on the model:

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i think where gooing to have cat 5 evere where
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2731. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

A sign of things to come?


Wouldn't surprise me. It's about time for the season to really get going.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
At 384 there's a hurricane east of the South East coast heading WNW or NW and a Hurricane in the southern Caribbean heading W.
3 bad hurricanes on the 00z run. Not good, not good at all.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Cyclone train starting.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
At 384 there's a hurricane east of the South East coast heading WNW or NW and a Hurricane in the southern Caribbean heading W.

A sign of things to come?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
At 384 there's a hurricane east of the South East coast heading WNW or NW and a Hurricane in the southern Caribbean heading W.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually, it has alternated from a US landfall to a fish storm. If the ECMWF's track verifies.. she'll be heading much more west.



Everyone i looking at the big one.....there is also a smaller scale one that models are also showing in the Caribbean. That just might be a GOM bound system.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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