A record quiet start to the 2010 Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:42 PM GMT on August 12, 2010

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The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have re-organized this morning, and the storm is pounding Southeast Louisiana with heavy rains. Radar imagery out of New Orleans shows that the remains of TD 5 have have formed some respectable low-level spiral bands that have brought heavy rains in excess of five inches in some areas. However, with the circulation center now moving over land, not much further development can occur.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five's remains.

Why so quiet in the Atlantic?
The Tropical Atlantic is quiet, and there are no threat areas to discuss today. The Invest 93 system we were tracking has been destroyed by dry air and wind shear. There are a couple of long-range threats suggested by some of the models--the GFS model predicts a tropical depression could form off the coast of Mississippi six days from now, and the NOGAPS model thinks something could get going in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche seven days from now. Neither of these possibilities are worthy of concern at present. Overall, it's been a surprisingly quiet August, considering the pre-season predictions of a hyperactive season. According the National Hurricane Center, this hurricane season has been exactly average so far. There have been three named storms and one hurricane as of August 12. The average date of formation of the third named storm is August 13. One hurricane typically forms by August 10. One reason for this year's inactivity may be an unusual number of upper-level low pressure systems that have paraded across the tropical Atlantic. These lows, also called Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) lows, tend to bring high wind shear that inhibits tropical cyclone formation. The other major factor appears to be that vertical instability has been unusually low in the Atlantic over the past month. Instability is measured as the difference in temperature between the surface and the top of the troposphere (the highest altitude that thunderstorm tops can penetrate to.) If the surface is very warm and the top of the troposphere is cold, an unstable atmosphere results, which helps to enhance thunderstorm updrafts and promote hurricane development. Since SSTs in the Atlantic are at record highs, enhancing instability, something else must be going on. Dry air can act to reduce instability, and it appears that an unusually dry atmosphere over the Atlantic this month is responsible for the lack of instability.


Figure 2. Vertical instability (in °C) over the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right) in 2010. Normal instability is the black line, and this year's instability levels are in blue. The atmosphere became much more stable than normal in both regions at the end of July. This lack of instability also extends to the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean between Europe and North America, as well as the Western Pacific east of the Philippines, and the South Indian Ocean. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

A record quiet start to the 2010 tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere
What is really odd about this year, though, is the lack of tropical cyclone activity across the entire Northern Hemisphere. Usually, if one ocean basin is experiencing a quiet season, one of the other ocean basins is going bonkers. That is not the case this year. Over in the Eastern Pacific, there have been five named storms and two hurricanes. The average is seven named storms and four hurricanes for this point in the season. This year's quiet season is not too surprising, since there is a moderate La Niña event underway, and La Niña conditions usually supresses Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. But over in the Western Pacific, which usually generates more tropical cyclones than any ocean basin on Earth, it has been a near-record quiet season. Just four named storms have occurred in the West Pacific this year, and the average for this date is eleven. Only one typhoon season has had fewer named storms this late in the season--1998, with just three. The total number of named storms in the Northern Hemisphere thus far this year is fifteen, which is the fewest since reliable records began in 1948. Second place belongs to 1983 and 1957, with eighteen named storms. According to an email I received from NOAA hurricane researcher Gabe Vecchi, the lack of tropical cyclones so far this year in the Northern Hemisphere is between a 1-in-80 and 1-in-100 year event.

So, what is causing this quiet tropical cyclone season? One possibility is that since Northern Hemisphere land areas have heated up to record temperatures this summer, this has created strong rising motion over the continents. This rising motion must be compensated by strong sinking motion over the adjacent oceans in order to conserve mass. Sinking air causes drying and an increase in stability. Another possibility is that the unusual jet stream configuration that is responsible for the Russia heat wave and record flooding in Pakistan is also bringing dry, stable air to the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone breeding grounds. It is also possible that climate change is causing the reduction in tropical cyclone activity, for a variety of complex reasons. Computer simulations of a future warmer climate generally show a reduction in global number of tropical cyclones (though the strongest storms get stronger), and it is possible we are seeing a preview of that future climate. Or, this year's quietness may simply be natural variability. It will be interesting to see when the Russian heat wave breaks if vertical instability over the Atlantic increases back to normal levels. Current forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models project the Russian heat wave to break late next week.

Moscow's air remains clear; coolest temperatures in two weeks
Moscow's winds remained favorable for keeping smoke away from the city today, and temperatures "cooled" to at Moscow's Domodedovo airport to 33°C (91°F)--the lowest maximum temperature since a high of 32°C (90°F) was recorded on July 30. Moscow's airport has reached a maximum temperature of 30°C (86°F) or higher for 35 consecutive days now (at Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string is 30 days.) Moscow's average high temperature for August 12 is 20°C (68°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average so far this August--a truly extraordinary anomaly for a country so famous for its notorious cold weather. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 33°C (86 - 91°F) Thursday through Monday. This is still 23°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will begin to attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia beginning on Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1688. Patrap
Quoting superpete:
Good morning Patrap,BahaAre you dried out on N.O. yet?


Some..but trouble is coming from the Nwest this am. Some got 4-5 inches in a few Hours yesterday and the BAdly drained areas arent too Happy bout it.

They say we need a Billion to repair the Underground drainage from K,,and 40 mil a year to maintain.

Da new Mayor is gonna have a PC today on dat.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Looks like I may finally get some rain.Local weather says it should be in Wilmer Ala.in a few.I am just North of there.
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Good morning Patrap,Baha
Quoting Patrap:
morn' superpete
Are you dried out on N.O. yet?
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1683. Patrap
1681. LAlurker


Love Ft. Morgan,,well save for Robertsdale Police,..LOL

Did work on two Beach Homes on Piers after Georges in 98.

Dem Blue Angels scared the doo-doo outta me one morn..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Things are nice and quiet my friends :)Let's hope it stays that way .
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
Morning Pat,
I'm tired of watching x-regen-xTD5 from the LA side, getting ready to drive through the teeth of the storm and watch it from the L.A. side from Ft. Morgan - see if it comes back around.
1680. FLdewey
Nary a wind report in Nawlins yesterday...

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Negative NAO.
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1678. Patrap
morn' superpete
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1676. Patrap
Quoting poknsnok:



why



Allows the Movement under her,towards the East coast ,or Higher strike areas.

And they have a nasty habit of building back and turning Storms toward Land.

And theres da Humor part..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Good morning Patrap,Baha
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Quoting IKE:
Jeff9641....the GFS weakens the ATL high on days 11-12.

Here's day 11.....



Here's day 12.....



Yep, I see that hits the weakness and fishy it is. Let's keep the fishy's coming! Very quite Atlantic basin this year. 6 years ago on Friday 13th I dealt with Charley and as a reult no power for 11 days afterward then came Frances, and then Jeanne. Charley was the worst by far though as UCF were I went to school took a major beating from Charley and so did OIA as a couple hangers were destroyed by 110 mph winds.
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Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


oh I hear ya, 3 am big time boomers almost rolled me out of bed, and it poured rained. Local met said Biloxi got 2 inches while Pascagoula is almost at 4 inches. Funny, Tommy Richards said the former TD5 will curve around to Mobile....hummmmmmm

does anyone have any models to support this?
sometimes I wonder about Tommy, and I have a small rain gauge that is overflowing at 2 inches ...
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Quoting Patrap:
A weak high is NEVER good,specially in the Atlantic in August



why
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1671. Patrap
..Its Friday Im in love..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting StormW:


Thanks for the post, nrt!.
Go figure, hey?


It is the climatological time of year for the Tropical Atlantic to start up. Shear at a minimum, instability and moisture increasing.


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1668. Patrap
A weak high is NEVER good,specially in the Atlantic in August
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1667. IKE
Jeff9641....the GFS weakens the ATL high on days 11-12.

Here's day 11.....



Here's day 12.....

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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Yeah, and you can have that little residual swirl cause it has kept me awake most of the night booming and pouring and booming some more...gonna need to take a boat out to deliver the mail in today...Been sitting over us all night here in Ocean Springs just south of I-10


oh I hear ya, 3 am big time boomers almost rolled me out of bed, and it poured rained. Local met said Biloxi got 2 inches while Pascagoula is almost at 4 inches. Funny, Tommy Richards said the former TD5 will curve around to Mobile....hummmmmmm

does anyone have any models to support this?
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Nothing much going on...



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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1664. Patrap
US Marines arrive to help Pakistan flood efforts as Zardari finally arrives

A shipload of US Marines and helicopters arrived to boost relief efforts in flooded Pakistan, as President Asif Ali Zardari made his first visit to victims.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Any models still showing exTD5 coming back out into the gom?


I believe all the models show this. The only thing is they all show this going back into the Gulf in different areas. Most likely entrance seems to be Applachie Bay.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Nominations for Legends of the Wunderground are now closed. Our nominations are as follows:

1. Katrina 2005 "StormTop said it would hit NOLA"
2. Rita 2005 "I tried to evacuate"
3. Wilma 2005 "the definitive pinhole eye"
4. Chris 2006 "Sheared again… Naturally"
5. Ernesto 2006 "yes it is; no it's not"
6. Dean 2007 "is that cat 5 landfall????"
7. Felix 2007 "graupel in the guts"
8. Humberto 2007? "Talk about explosive cyclogenesis"
9. Karen 2007 "never say die"
10. Dolly 2008 "no closed low"
11. Fay 2008 "Florida vacation"
12. Gustav 2008 "I can fake u out"
13. Ike 2008 aka "Ike Jr."; "Beeline for South Florida! ... NOT"
14. Portlight 2008 formation "We are the Blog"
15. Marco 2008 "World's Smallest 'cane or Largest Tornado"

These are currently listed in chronological order.

I'll figure out how to do the voting thing in a few [need coffee]. I figure voting from 8 a.m. EDT to 8 p.m. CDT? Do I need to keep the poll open later? lol


I'm too much of a noob to know what's legend. Although I have heard of most of those. Lol.

I was saddened by Katrina.
I did evac from Rita.
I was still on "vacation" during Wilma.
The only weather I remember from 2006 was going fishing on my dad's birthday, Jan.5th and it was hot.
I learned about Dean and Felix after the fact.
And I am grateful that all I got was Humberto and that whole WHAT THE....was that!??
Got Some of Dolly's rain bands up here.
Fay was my first. :) To track that is. My iniation into WU.
Gustav did fake me out! I ran but he missed me.
Ah Ike. He wasn't in a hurry to get anywhere, the big lumbering beast! Made my house oceanfront property for a couple days.
I do remember Marco.
And Portlight is great. Just hope they never need to come back here. :)
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1661. beell
Gravity wave from collapsing t-storms over the Yucatan visible on the wv loop this morning-if you look quick). Caused a flare-up in the BOC (circle). Enhanced lift from the wave also showing up at the peak of the wave (other circle).

SSD WV Loop

Photobucket
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1660. Patrap





'Global Weirding': Extreme Climate Events Dominate The Summer


A heatwave in Russia is sparking wildfires that are driving residents from Moscow and devastating the country's wheat crop. A fifth of Pakistan is underwater and millions are deluged by floods in Asia. Another heatwave is torturing Mexico and the East Coast of the United States. An incomprehensibly large chunk of ice has broken off a glacier in Greenland, the most significant climate event there in 50 years.

Most scientists caution that no single event can be tied specifically to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. But climate-change deniers quickly point to the first snowfall in winter as evidence against global warming. If that's the standard, the extreme climate events all across the globe must say something about whether climate change is already upon us. Indeed, the regularity of the events is beginning to undermine the descriptor "extreme". Extreme is the new normal.

"We're setting climate records at a record-setting pace," David Orr, a professor of environmental studies and politics at Oberlin College, told HuffPost. "More hottest hots, driest dries, wettest wets, windiest wind conditions. So it's all part of a pattern. If you ask is this evidence of climate destabilization, the only scientific answer you can give is: It is consistent with what we can expect." Orr is the author of "Down to the Wire: Confronting Climate Collapse" and five other books on politics and the environment.

The Pentagon announced in a report earlier this year that new patterns in the weather "may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world." And a new report from the National Wildlife Federation explores the unsettling implications of continued warming: climate models indicate that if nothing is done -- and nothing is being done -- extreme fluctuations will only become more common. The warning is timely, if the steady rise of international weather-related disasters is any indication.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting StormW:


That is the steering layers forecast out to 144 hours. What it's saying is..."forget about fish".

You can see it better here:

PSU


I see that StormW but why are the models showing this a fish. Based on steering I see a IKE to Frances type track. Any thoughts?
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1658. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Any models still showing exTD5 coming back out into the gom?


Several of them do....ECMWF...GFS...CMC...NOGAPS.
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1657. Patrap
Getting the Boy to Jesuit to Start his Junior Year.
Why a Friday,..I havent a clue.

Good morn' to yas
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Any models still showing exTD5 coming back out into the gom?
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G'morning Pat, how are you?
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
Yeah, that little risidual swirl that used to be TD-5 is approaching Mobile. It better hurry up and move through because I need to fire up the smoker in a few hours.
Yeah, and you can have that little residual swirl cause it has kept me awake most of the night booming and pouring and booming some more...gonna need to take a boat out to deliver the mail in today...Been sitting over us all night here in Ocean Springs just south of I-10
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1652. IKE
I just looked at all of the basins in the northern hemisphere...on this website and the Navy invest site...and there's nothing beyond the invest that just went inland in the east-PAC, on the planet! On August 13th.
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HPC Preliminary Caribbean Discussion

Excerpt:

ON THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ATLANTIC...MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT 250/500 HPA
LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AZORES...PAVING THE WAY FOR A BROAD/DEEP
TUTT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO RETROGRESS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS LIKELY TO EBB...THUS MAKING IT MORE CONDUCIVE
TO CYCLONE FORMATION. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS RESPONDING TO THIS
SCENARIO...AS THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW RISK OF CYCLONES
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING...THE RISK OF FORMATION
IS WHAT COUNTS.
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1650. Patrap
Good Friday da 13th

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
There is an area of interest north of Panama where there is deep persistent convection.
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1648. IKE
I'd look for the last week of August(from the 23rd on), until things may pick up to where someone is threatened by a significant system(hurricane), if then.
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1647. P451
Quoting weatherblog:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA

And, remember this is August 13th.


Absolutely.

Things will eventually pop. Even if we have just one week of prime atmospheric conditions.... LOOK OUT. The fuel is there waiting to be tapped.

"It only takes one."
"Remember Andrew."

These are valid cliches to be thrown around given the fuel out there.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 131133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA

And, remember this is August 13th.
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1645. P451
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Erika! That's the one. Gave us night owls quite a show. Lol. But I'm glad she couldn't hang on long enough to get too bad.


Her problem was mid level shear. If she didn't have that mid level shear she would have been an absolute monster given how she kept on not just clinging to life but generated constant impressive convective bursts.

That storm wanted to kill.
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1644. IKE
Snooze-fest continues....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
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1643. P451
Quoting BahaHurican:
Nominations for Legends of the Wunderground are now closed. Our nominations are as follows:

1. Katrina 2005 "StormTop said it would hit NOLA"
2. Rita 2005 "I tried to evacuate"
3. Wilma 2005 "the definitive pinhole eye"
4. Chris 2006 "Sheared again… Naturally"
5. Ernesto 2006 "yes it is; no it's not"
6. Dean 2007 "is that cat 5 landfall????"
7. Felix 2007 "graupel in the guts"
8. Humberto 2007? "Talk about explosive cyclogenesis"
9. Karen 2007 "never say die"
10. Dolly 2008 "no closed low"
11. Fay 2008 "Florida vacation"
12. Gustav 2008 "I can fake u out"
13. Ike 2008 aka "Ike Jr."; "Beeline for South Florida! ... NOT"
14. Portlight 2008 formation "We are the Blog"
15. Marco 2008 "World's Smallest 'cane or Largest Tornado"

These are currently listed in chronological order.

I'll figure out how to do the voting thing in a few [need coffee]. I figure voting from 8 a.m. EDT to 8 p.m. CDT? Do I need to keep the poll open later? lol


Karen is a legend on here.

StormTop also predicted a hurricane for south Texas that would tighten up to a Cat 2 when it reached land and would hit S.Padre Island... when almost nobody thought possible.

Dude's a legend. Perhaps in his own mind....but well he called that one. I think it was two years ago.

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Quoting Cotillion:


Erika?

or Ana? Both did roughly the same sorta thing.


Erika! That's the one. Gave us night owls quite a show. Lol. But I'm glad she couldn't hang on long enough to get too bad.
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1641. IKE
Another one bites the dust in the east-PAC. This one had an 80% chance of developing just yesterday....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
LIKELY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
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1640. P451
Good Morning, Kids.

A little loop of our blue marble this AM: Water Vapor Imagery.

Thanks to StormW who posted the link to this site a year or so ago. LINK



Looking at this image...I can't help but mutter to myself... Is this December?

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Mobile Radar

Link
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1638. b4dirt
Storm is that a bermuda high forming?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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