A record quiet start to the 2010 Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:42 PM GMT on August 12, 2010

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The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have re-organized this morning, and the storm is pounding Southeast Louisiana with heavy rains. Radar imagery out of New Orleans shows that the remains of TD 5 have have formed some respectable low-level spiral bands that have brought heavy rains in excess of five inches in some areas. However, with the circulation center now moving over land, not much further development can occur.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five's remains.

Why so quiet in the Atlantic?
The Tropical Atlantic is quiet, and there are no threat areas to discuss today. The Invest 93 system we were tracking has been destroyed by dry air and wind shear. There are a couple of long-range threats suggested by some of the models--the GFS model predicts a tropical depression could form off the coast of Mississippi six days from now, and the NOGAPS model thinks something could get going in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche seven days from now. Neither of these possibilities are worthy of concern at present. Overall, it's been a surprisingly quiet August, considering the pre-season predictions of a hyperactive season. According the National Hurricane Center, this hurricane season has been exactly average so far. There have been three named storms and one hurricane as of August 12. The average date of formation of the third named storm is August 13. One hurricane typically forms by August 10. One reason for this year's inactivity may be an unusual number of upper-level low pressure systems that have paraded across the tropical Atlantic. These lows, also called Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) lows, tend to bring high wind shear that inhibits tropical cyclone formation. The other major factor appears to be that vertical instability has been unusually low in the Atlantic over the past month. Instability is measured as the difference in temperature between the surface and the top of the troposphere (the highest altitude that thunderstorm tops can penetrate to.) If the surface is very warm and the top of the troposphere is cold, an unstable atmosphere results, which helps to enhance thunderstorm updrafts and promote hurricane development. Since SSTs in the Atlantic are at record highs, enhancing instability, something else must be going on. Dry air can act to reduce instability, and it appears that an unusually dry atmosphere over the Atlantic this month is responsible for the lack of instability.


Figure 2. Vertical instability (in °C) over the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right) in 2010. Normal instability is the black line, and this year's instability levels are in blue. The atmosphere became much more stable than normal in both regions at the end of July. This lack of instability also extends to the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean between Europe and North America, as well as the Western Pacific east of the Philippines, and the South Indian Ocean. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

A record quiet start to the 2010 tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere
What is really odd about this year, though, is the lack of tropical cyclone activity across the entire Northern Hemisphere. Usually, if one ocean basin is experiencing a quiet season, one of the other ocean basins is going bonkers. That is not the case this year. Over in the Eastern Pacific, there have been five named storms and two hurricanes. The average is seven named storms and four hurricanes for this point in the season. This year's quiet season is not too surprising, since there is a moderate La Niña event underway, and La Niña conditions usually supresses Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. But over in the Western Pacific, which usually generates more tropical cyclones than any ocean basin on Earth, it has been a near-record quiet season. Just four named storms have occurred in the West Pacific this year, and the average for this date is eleven. Only one typhoon season has had fewer named storms this late in the season--1998, with just three. The total number of named storms in the Northern Hemisphere thus far this year is fifteen, which is the fewest since reliable records began in 1948. Second place belongs to 1983 and 1957, with eighteen named storms. According to an email I received from NOAA hurricane researcher Gabe Vecchi, the lack of tropical cyclones so far this year in the Northern Hemisphere is between a 1-in-80 and 1-in-100 year event.

So, what is causing this quiet tropical cyclone season? One possibility is that since Northern Hemisphere land areas have heated up to record temperatures this summer, this has created strong rising motion over the continents. This rising motion must be compensated by strong sinking motion over the adjacent oceans in order to conserve mass. Sinking air causes drying and an increase in stability. Another possibility is that the unusual jet stream configuration that is responsible for the Russia heat wave and record flooding in Pakistan is also bringing dry, stable air to the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone breeding grounds. It is also possible that climate change is causing the reduction in tropical cyclone activity, for a variety of complex reasons. Computer simulations of a future warmer climate generally show a reduction in global number of tropical cyclones (though the strongest storms get stronger), and it is possible we are seeing a preview of that future climate. Or, this year's quietness may simply be natural variability. It will be interesting to see when the Russian heat wave breaks if vertical instability over the Atlantic increases back to normal levels. Current forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models project the Russian heat wave to break late next week.

Moscow's air remains clear; coolest temperatures in two weeks
Moscow's winds remained favorable for keeping smoke away from the city today, and temperatures "cooled" to at Moscow's Domodedovo airport to 33°C (91°F)--the lowest maximum temperature since a high of 32°C (90°F) was recorded on July 30. Moscow's airport has reached a maximum temperature of 30°C (86°F) or higher for 35 consecutive days now (at Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string is 30 days.) Moscow's average high temperature for August 12 is 20°C (68°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average so far this August--a truly extraordinary anomaly for a country so famous for its notorious cold weather. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 33°C (86 - 91°F) Thursday through Monday. This is still 23°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will begin to attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia beginning on Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:


It's Obama's fault the season is in snooze mode.
Vote for the president who keeps hurricanes off shore.... would lose the Wundervote, right? .... Right....

[Sorry, too much old school Bill Cosby.... lol]
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Do not quite understand where Dr Masters is coming from. In the post Katrina days, the implications relative to global warming were that it was possible that global warming could be responsible for the increased hurricane activity although on several occasions he stated that there was no proof of such a relationship and that natural variability could account for the increased activity. In today's blog he states "Computer simulations of a future warmer climate generally show a reduction in global number of tropical cyclones (though the strongest storms get stronger), and it is possible we are seeing a preview of that future climate. Or, this year's quietness may simply be natural variability."

The problem with models is that they show you what you want to see - for good reason. Unless you understand and mathematically define EVERY variable that is associated with climate, or whatever it is that you are modeling, you do not have a model that can predict. At best, it can be directionally correct some, most, a few times. Look at the models used for predicting the path of a huricane. Some models show the exact opposite of what other models show and in general are all over the map. The differences between these models demonstrate that not all is understood about the nature of a hurricane. The conical shape shown for the path is a statistical best fit of all the "good" models. Another observation - if the models can be so different while a hurrican is in progress, why should one take a model's suggestion as to what hurricains will do several years out into the future. I will wait for a better understanding, better models, before making judgement as to future weather.

Dr. Frank Stuchal
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TS Chris from 2006.

That's what you call being sheared and somehow managed to get loadsa blog comments.
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Quoting ElConando:


Last time I ever freaked out over a 5 day forecast. I know far better now. Just be prepared and you'll be fine.
No, but who really BELIEVED the models when they started turning Ike SW??? I was dead sure we were going to get a serious blow all the way up the Bahamian chain from IKE... I mean reamed a new one... We've got a NW passage and a NE passage... after Ike we would have had a Centre Passage.... lol

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Since things are relatively slow, what about a "Legends of the Wunderblog" runoff? Nominate the three or five top tropical events that typify Wunderblog history or lore. The main requirement would be that the event has to have happened since the blog happened, and it has to have entered the "history" or collective memory of the blog as a notable event.

I nominate

1)Hurricane [in the post season] Karen of 2007
2)Wilma
3)?? still thinking.... maybe Felix?

Anybody else has suggestions?


I nominate karen - its still funny. Running around with her skirts up.
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This season reminds me of 19 68.... or was it ...72 or maybe .....81. Oh heck, I forget.
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PsychicMaria was on the money......and I just got back from a ride to Walgreens on the bike, had a view from the middle of the "stadium" albeit lower and not very ominous that was TD5.
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826. unf97
Quoting BahaHurican:
What about Fay? That was legendary, man...


Oh my god yes. Fay caused such a mess with flooding over Florida. This goes without saying. here at my home in Jacksonville, I received a total of over 14 inches within 36 hours. Of course, that pales in the 2 feet the Melbourne area received from T.S. Fay
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Quoting IKE:
Nice afternoon here in the Florida panhandle...only 80.2 outside. Picked up .15 of an inch of rain today.

Signed,

The blogger that only posts models that show nothing.



You talking about Ike right?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dunno, was hard to beat the insanity that happened on here when this forecast track was out.


INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.1N 54.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 58.7W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.3N 61.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 23.8N 63.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 68.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 75.5W 115 KT



Last time I ever freaked out over a 5 day forecast. I know far better now. Just be prepared and you'll be fine.
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The real reason the Hurricane season hasn't taken off yet - Hurricanes are formed offshore and then come onshore, so the Secretary of the Interior has issued a Moratorium on formation of hurricanes for 6 months beginning June 1. If you have any complaints about the lack of storms, please forward them to the Administration.
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821. IKE
Nice afternoon here in the Florida panhandle...only 80.2 outside. Picked up .15 of an inch of rain today.

Signed,

The blogger that only posts models that show nothing.

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Quoting BreadandCircuses:


Cloud seeding by Weather Modification Inc., paid for by insurance companies, helped to reduce the severity of storms in Canada:

Link








Do they also make use of the infamous "tunnels"?
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LOL Ike is the nighmare where u are sleeping, u know it's supposed to go south, right, and hit Cuba, but NOOOOO.... it keeps following that darned NHC centre line.....

LOL

I got Ike on there already.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dunno, was hard to beat the insanity that happened on here when this forecast track was out.


INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.1N 54.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 58.7W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.3N 61.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 23.8N 63.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 68.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 75.5W 115 KT



I vividly remember that day on this blog lol. The blog went crazy
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Quoting BahaHurican:
What about Fay? That was legendary, man...


No kidding her presence was felt in Miami when she was all the way in the Panhandle!
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Quoting Patrap:
Well,,time to get Game prepped here as Kickoff is a lil over a Hour away.


Ssssplsssh,..sip,

Ahhh..

Later

I'll be watchin'
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Quoting BahaHurican:
What about Fay? That was legendary, man...


Dunno, was hard to beat the insanity that happened on here when this forecast track was out.


INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.1N 54.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 58.7W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.3N 61.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 23.8N 63.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 68.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 75.5W 115 KT

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Is there compulsory night school in the US tonight or something?
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Quoting Patrap:
Well,,time to get Game prepped here as Kickoff is a lil over a Hour away.


Ssssplsssh,..sip,

Ahhh..

Later



Enjoy your Fresca Pat.
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Well,,time to get Game prepped here as Kickoff is a lil over a Hour away.


Ssssplsssh,..sip,

Ahhh..

Later

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
I see Abbott and Costello are at it again. All we need now is Amy.
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What about Fay? That was legendary, man...
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Quoting Patrap:


Wash the truck,,that usually brings it here.
Can't do that it'll fall apart.
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#20. and we forgot the ... I have __ (fill in the #) people blocked. Why can't every blogger be as good as me... no one has me blocked...everyone loves me...
yes sarcasm flag wayyyyyyy on.
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Quoting msgambler:
Pat, I need some rain


Wash the truck,,that usually brings it here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
Quoting Walshy:



Isabel
Marco

Hmm.... wasn't Isabel in 2003, before the blog started? and Marco was '08, right?
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Pat, I need some rain
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Quoting StormW:


Is that a pinhole eye?


can you post those sweet shots you have of the African coast> The one that looks west to east..
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Quoting FLdewey:

You people? *snicker*

Welcome aboard... I'm assuming you're new?


maybe, maybe not

I might have an alternate identity lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Since things are relatively slow, what about a "Legends of the Wunderblog" runoff? Nominate the three or five top tropical events that typify Wunderblog history or lore. The main requirement would be that the event has to have happened since the blog happened, and it has to have entered the "history" or collective memory of the blog as a notable event.

I nominate

1)Hurricane [in the post season] Karen of 2007
2)Wilma
3)?? still thinking.... maybe Felix?

Anybody else has suggestions?


1) Ike, when it was predicted to hit SFL as a Category 4/5 Hurricane.
2) Dean when it hit category 5.
3) Gustav when it was predict to hit Louisiana as a Category 4 and become a Category 5 in the Gulf.
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Quoting FLdewey:

Good God I hope not... can imagine the runoff from a Jersey Storm.


Now that's funny. I am from Jersey and fully concur. The toxic waste would melt the Greenland Ice Cap in three days!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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