Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

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Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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427. Patrap
5:41 PM GMT on August 11, 2010


.."come with me,..my Love"..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
426. Levi32
5:41 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting NASA101:
Levi:

The CIMSS Predict site has a PGI27L just south of Cape Verde (12N-20W) and has it moving West till about 45W - Currently, I see no convection/rotation whatsoever to warrant a designation..!? Do you see something different!


Ya it's a weak pouch but you can kind of see it on TPW imagery. It's also evident as a kink in the 650mb flow analysis:



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
425. scottsvb
5:41 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Um.. I know your not talking about me reedzone about being always correct. I'm wrong @ times. I'm human.. we all make mistakes. Just you get upset when some Mets or Peeps that have weather knowledge tell you whats happening and where its going.. and you flip out all the time. I guess I'm on ignore from him so it dont matter. I know he was banned before on another site for outrageous dreamcasts and yelling at others for going against his dreams.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1600
424. IKE
5:41 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
I think TD5 has 3 hours of life left with the NHC and it's over. That's what appears likely reading their latest advisory.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
422. reedzone
5:39 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting IKE:
...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...
1:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 11
Location: 28.0°N 87.0°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb


Get the popcorn/soda out, here comes the RIPS! ;)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
421. IKE
5:38 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
100 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 87.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
LOSING ORGANIZATION AND COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
87.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DEPRESSION REACHES THE
COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY IN GUSTS...COULD REACH
THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
420. reedzone
5:38 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:



Torrential rainfall in Daytona Beach just came from there and it's raining so hard there you can hardly see the car in front of you. It also looks as if an outflow boundary and ECSB is going to meet over Seminole and Orange Counties producing some very high rain totals.


It was raining hard earlier with gusts of 20 mph. It's back to nice and sunny, humid Florida now :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
419. Thundercloud01221991
5:38 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/WALTON
NNNN





why is 93L down to 50% when it actually has convection now?
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
418. IKE
5:38 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...
1:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 11
Location: 28.0°N 87.0°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
417. FranAteMyRoof96
5:38 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
back in the atlantic, 93L appears to be splitting into two separate spinny bits, one at 25.7n 50.5w heading NE and one at 22.7n 57.5w heading WSW. 0.0

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
416. DaytonaBeachWatcher
5:38 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:



Torrential rainfall in Daytona Beach just came from there and it's raining so hard there you can hardly see the car in front of you. It also looks as if an outflow boundary and ECSB is going to meet over Seminole and Orange Counties producing some very high rain totals.


it musta stopped, no rain here in daytona now, but it has been on and off this a.m.

BTW on another note, this blog gets funnier and funnier, i just love it.
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
414. TexasHurricane
5:38 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
I guess we will see by the end of August and into September, but storms seem to be having a hard time getting themselves together (besides Alex)....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
413. psuweathernewbie
5:38 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Conditions are much more favorable for TD5, then Bonnie ever had, right Levi. Wave near 10W over Africa has a vigorous low level circulation.
412. Patrap
5:37 PM GMT on August 11, 2010






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
411. CaicosRetiredSailor
5:37 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Hello Baha

Just got home, and I see the blob which I thought you were keeping that way has slipped down here and is dripping on me.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
410. Jebekarue
5:37 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
gbreezegirl, i was wondering that myself, it could very well be a goof so I checked for Mobile and found the same thing

TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND
UPPER MOBILE.

Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
408. Levi32
5:36 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting Tropicaddict:
Levi, Do you think TD5 is in fact still a TD?


Oh ya, closed circulation just realllllly broad. It's nowhere near as pathetic as Bonnie was.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
407. NASA101
5:36 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Levi:

The CIMSS Predict site has a PGI27L just south of Cape Verde (12N-20W) and has it moving West till about 45W - Currently, I see no convection/rotation whatsoever to warrant a designation..!? Do you see something different!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
406. BahaHurican
5:36 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Reading Klotzbach's take on the so-called "slow season" thus far, and I have to admit he uses a methodical and straightforward approach that impresses me positively.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21194
405. StormHype
5:35 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Scottsvb says things with so much confidence, then bashes those who disagree with him. Please don't quote him, there's a reason why he's on ignore. An arrogant MET!


FWIW, I don't see the center reforming unexpectedly east either. It's a large disorganized system, with the biggest blobs of convection and squalls off to the east of the center which is typical of such a system. Coastal Sarasota FL has been seeing some rather nasty squalls off and on all day.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1200
404. Tropicaddict
5:35 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Levi, Do you think TD5 is in fact still a TD?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
403. psuweathernewbie
5:35 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Wave near the Bahamas is from a leftover surface trough that was present over the central Caribbean 3 days ago. It could develop over the next few days, but has a long way to go. If convection persists then we could see gradual development.

I don't think the next invest would be 96L, it would be 95L.
402. Levi32
5:34 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 11th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
Quoting Jebekarue:
quick question I just read this on the NHC site for Pensacola...was wondering why we are under TS warning until 9pm Monday tia

FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
ROSA.
Well I must say that is a little odd. What's up with that? Do you think they just made a mistake?
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh and what do you think this season will amount too? Also, what's you degree in btw? Just curious.


No use arguing with a certified MET, because he's always right, never wrong. If you go against him, he'll rip you apart. He has a degree, unfortunately his attitude is not MET type.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Nice little cluster of showers heading towards central Bahamas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Never really got the point of the constant bashing of Ike, reedzone, MH09, ect for downcasting/wischasting. Really, if they are wrong they're wrong. Not like anyone's a deity on here.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
392. unf97
AOI east of the southern Windward Islands is beginning to appear more healthy on satellite imagery. This area may have a decent chance to develop in the next few days if it can avoid the shear axis assoociated with that huge ULL which has given 93L fits.

Also today, I noticed a flare-up in the Bahamas which developed today. Not concerned about that much, unless the convection stays persistent in that area. Just something to monitor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
quick question I just read this on the NHC site for Pensacola...was wondering why we are under TS warning until 9pm Monday tia

FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
ROSA.
Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
Quoting ElConando:
336. It could be something down the line but I find it hilarious that Levi is talking about development from something currently over Sudan.


I know lol. There's not all that much to look forward to in the next week and when that happens I go way down the line looking for mischief. Seriously though, these ensemble means usually don't show this stuff and now it's not just the GFS. The pattern is one that we should be on the lookout for with or without a wave over Sudan lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
Wave over Africa nearing 10W and 10-20N is showing signs that Africa is ready to produce a few Cape Verde Hurricanes in the future. NAO is going negative, MJO is currently in the COD, but should enter phase 2, and wind shear has greatly diminished west of this wave, with a possible upper level anticyclone over the wave. This is the one to watch.
Quoting tkeith:
278. Floodman 11:55 AM CDT on August 11, 2010

Whistling past the Graveyard

Hey Flood, tell that dude to put PanhandleChuck back where he found him!


Screamin' Jay? He looks like that too now...LOL
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387. SLU
*sigh*

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Quoting SeaMule:
if the LLC is indeed, reforming..and I believe it is....look for the following.

Poor steering currents and lack of initiative for any progress of our little aggravator in the gulf...will mean more time. time for what?

cat 3 in da gulf within 36 hours..imho


I would not go that far; while the heat and lack of any real movement is there, lots of ULL traffic in the region at the moment that would hinder significant development IMHO....Conditions are not that favorable in the upper levels to support a major hurricane....Just my opinion.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8715
Me thinks tho dost protest too much.
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
382. huber
Is there any model support for the area of storms forming over the Bahamas?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
At least he's consistent... gotta look at the positives.


I'm putting you on ignore now, you continue to bash me instead of actually discussing Tropical weather. It;s immature, sorry but I'm not like JFV in any way. I don't wish for a storm to hit.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
336. It could be something down the line but I find it hilarious that Levi is talking about development from something currently over Sudan.
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379. IKE
Latest NOGAPS through 180 hours...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
378. 7544
looks like a blob trying to get going by the bammas with low shear could somthing try to form in that area

looks the the wave est of the islands wants to be 96l first how soon ? tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Check out this loop. Doesn't it appear that the low level flow around the large convective mass W of Fort Myers and Tampa seems to have slowed down as if a main center is trying to form in that area? Maybe its just the differing speed of the images coming across. The center is still incredibly elongated, but I think it's slowly becoming more focused there as the latest 850mb vorticity charts from CIMSS depict.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.