Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

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Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Not a fan of watts, but the klotzbach article was fine.


The fact that he posts there can't mean Watts' site is as bad as you claim lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
Quoting IKE:


It's almost to the point of looking at the last 10 days of August for a chance of something significant, affecting anyone, in the Atlantic.

I know I'll get hammered from the blogger in Brownsville over what I'm saying, but I don't see much the next 7-10 days.


You Cool with me Bro........I actually have considered the past several weeks pretty active (including one hurricane) in spite of a few false starts most recently....I am NOT looking forward to when Mother Nature "throws the switch" in the Central Atlantic whether that be in a few weeks or in earnest in September.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8826
Quoting SeniorPoppy:


The conditions might be coming together but it does not mean that a well-above average season "in reality" will occur.
This is a moot argument at this point in time. Both sides have stated cases; now only time can be the judge of who is right. Might as well let it rest right there.

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466. fallinstorms

Just dont send this info to WikiLeaks...
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Quoting Patrap:
A Roast Beef Po-boy,dressed,with xtra-gravy automatically demands 2 Root beers and 11 Napkins,..no, make dat 12 now.


lol
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Looks highly unlikely now that TD5 will become Danielle, I expect a downgrade to a trough of low pressure at 5 or 11 pm, maybe later. I saw pointed out that the GFS is developing a tropical wave next week at about 108 hours out earlier so thats something we will have to watch as time goes on. what I also found interesting is what levi pointed out in his video (great video btw Levi) that some models such as the GFS is showing TD5 looping around and re-emerging into the Gulf under a ridge and strengthens it over very warm SSTs. That's also something we will have to watch in the next 7 to 8 days. I also see the CMC is trying to show a system developing off another trough split at 100 hours or so, but I take it with a grain of salt until more models come on board. Overall, things look pretty quiet over the next several days but we will have to watch those 3 areas.
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Quoting dolphin13:


Excellent job, Levi! Thanks for your input:)


Thanks :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
Oh my, I really need to adjust my tinfoil hat before coming here.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
thanks Mossyhead, I had read early someone was talking about a poss loopdeloop, but wasn't expecting it to be in the forecast...if you look at the forecast for Pcola on wunderground it only has ts warning until friday..so I wasn't expecting it.
Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
Quoting Levi32:


Probably more rain, but unless this winds up in a hurry near the coast it shouldn't be too bad really, just another rainstorm. I still don't see it getting past a low-end TS at best.

agreed.. i'm watching this very closely and keeping up with all the input, since my expecting wife is in Lafayette for a conference. she experienced an earthquake in Ottawa on her last trip, and i don't want her to go through a tropical cyclone on this one!! we're minnesotan and typically experience neither. i also agree with the Fujiwara effect statement some posts back Levi. i'm seeing less chance for a relocating center vs. just winding up on itself slowly.

so thanks for everyone's posting on this, and i hope to continue to report good news to her.
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Quoting reedzone:


Get the popcorn/soda out, here comes the RIPS! ;)


yeah, from the NHC, such downcasters...
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Quoting Levi32:


Probably more rain, but unless this winds up in a hurry near the coast it shouldn't be too bad really, just another rainstorm. I still don't see it getting past a low-end TS at best.


Or could just be a disturbance as the NHC puts it. We'll see what happens, looking at the last few frames, it's *trying* to get organized, the bands to the southeast, convection turning more towards the COC on the Gulf Coast.. From what I can see that is.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting fallinstorms:
they are probley seeding the storms
I knew it!
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Thought the latest run of the CMC was interesting, shows a fish trough split in 102 hours. ECMWF also shows something similar, but keeps it attached to the front.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23611
450. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
421. IKE 1:38 PM EDT on August 11, 2010

NHC not buying the relocation theory....Basically a naked disorganized low south of Pensacola, moving 12 MPH, (and about to be donwgraded) with "lots" of displaced convection hugging the coast of Florida........LOL


It's almost to the point of looking at the last 10 days of August for a chance of something significant, affecting anyone, in the Atlantic.

I know I'll get hammered from the blogger in Brownsville over what I'm saying, but I don't see much the next 7-10 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting mossyhead:
The storm will be slowing down and maybe stalling out.
Thanks Mossyhead, that does make more sense - I didn't think of that.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
Quoting BahaHurican:
Reading Klotzbach's take on the so-called "slow season" thus far, and I have to admit he uses a methodical and straightforward approach that impresses me positively.


Yes. Hopefully some will see that it is to early to judge the season. What you think you see is not necessarily what you are going to get!
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 11th, with Video


Excellent job, Levi! Thanks for your input:)
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Quoting BobinTampa:


the only place TD5 gets any love is on this blog.


Ike gives storms "tough love", not entirely downcasting, but love in a tough way... Tough Love :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting Levi32:


Probably more rain, but unless this winds up in a hurry near the coast it shouldn't be too bad really, just another rainstorm. I still don't see it getting past a low-end TS at best.


Ok....I was at least hoping for a day of from work! lol
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Quoting IKE:
I think TD5 has 3 hours of life left with the NHC and it's over. That's what appears likely reading their latest advisory.


i agree with you and i have to say the way people were treating you yesterday really was awful and undeserved
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Quoting Patrap:
So we'll at least get more than the nothing we got with Bonnie


Well at least her reputation will stay in good standing.



Hahaha, true!
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Quoting Tropicaddict:


Oh, ok. So we'll at least get more than the nothing we got with Bonnie. I live in SW MS.


Probably more rain, but unless this winds up in a hurry near the coast it shouldn't be too bad really, just another rainstorm. I still don't see it getting past a low-end TS at best.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
Quoting FLdewey:


No I was not... I've never seen you freak out when you were wrong, and I haven't seen you wishing for a storm. We may butt heads once in a while but I don't have it out for you. I offend all types.

DestinJeff on the other hand...


Oh ok.. Sorry man, carry on :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting IKE:
I think TD5 has 3 hours of life left with the NHC and it's over. That's what appears likely reading their latest advisory.


the only place TD5 gets any love is on this blog.
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421. IKE 1:38 PM EDT on August 11, 2010

NHC not buying the relocation theory....Basically a naked disorganized low south of Pensacola, moving 12 MPH, (and about to be donwgraded) with "lots" of displaced convection hugging the coast of Florida........LOL
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8826
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Well I must say that is a little odd. What's up with that? Do you think they just made a mistake?
The storm will be slowing down and maybe stalling out.
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So we'll at least get more than the nothing we got with Bonnie


Well at least her reputation will stay in good standing.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/WALTON
NNNN





why is 93L down to 50% when it actually has convection now?
I don't know! But that is really crazy. It looks really impressive and they downgrade it to 50%. Will someone give the NHC some common sense pills?? Please!!
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Quoting Jebekarue:
gbreezegirl, i was wondering that myself, it could very well be a goof so I checked for Mobile and found the same thing

TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND
UPPER MOBILE.

Thanks for answering me - seems like maybe they are covering in case this thing does make the loop de loop!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
A Roast Beef Po-boy,dressed,with xtra-gravy automatically demands 2 Root beers and 11 Napkins,..no, make dat 12 now.
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh ya, closed circulation just realllllly broad. It's nowhere near as pathetic as Bonnie was.


Oh, ok. So we'll at least get more than the nothing we got with Bonnie. I live in SW MS.
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.."come with me,..my Love"..


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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