Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

Share this Blog
1
+

Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 577 - 527

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Yes, history repeating itself exactly in meteorology is a rarity, then usually due to mere coincidence.

But, thanks for your answers. Interesting years ahead, methinks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grecojdw:


I noticed that too. Maybe one of the more knowledgeable ones on this site could analyze this possibility.


What radar site is near there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Exactly. And that's the thing with the ensembles showing the hurricane approaching the SE coast. Specifics can't be believed, but the model is trying to get a point across and we can't ignore it. The pattern is ripe for such a thing to occur and to see it on a 2-week ensemble mean is really quite amazing.


Agreed - the details of the exact landfall is not important right now - as this thing could easily wind up in the Gulf depending on the patterns in 2 weeks time....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting srada:


Floyd 1999 hit NC..even though it hit as a strong Cat 2, it was projected at landfall as a 4..I know a Category 2 might not be considered a major but it did a lot of damage..yes the east coast is way overdue


Along those lines, the upper Texas coast (roughly from Freeport to Sabine Pass) still hasn't taken a direct hit from a major since Alicia, since Ike wasn't technically a major... (I fully expect at some point they will eventually reclassify him).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
A new center of relocation appears to be taking place about just west of Fort Myers, FL seen on their radar. Thoughts?


I noticed that too. Maybe one of the more knowledgeable ones on this site could analyze this possibility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Agreed...and Cotillion, as Bastardi has pointed out, in which I agree 100% DO NOT pay attention to the details of the model (i.e. the strength of systems popping up, or lack thereof...we have to pay attention to all of the "signals" that are here, and forecast to be in place).


Exactly. And that's the thing with the ensembles showing the hurricane approaching the SE coast. Specifics can't be believed, but the model is trying to get a point across and we can't ignore it. The pattern is ripe for such a thing to occur and to see it on a 2-week ensemble mean is really quite amazing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thank you aspectre
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
I don't know! But that is really crazy. It looks really impressive and they downgrade it to 50%. Will someone give the NHC some common sense pills?? Please!!
Don;t worry about the NHC, they know what they are doing and are just fine...I think a lot of the people on this blog need some common sense pills, as you put it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting srada:
Levi, that was a great analysis..a storm for the carolinas? Scary thought..I appreciate how you spell out everything that even the most unknowledgeable person as myself could understand the weather..You are doing a great job!!


Let's just wait until "THAT" wave is around 40W - it's currently around 15 degs EAST, before people in the Carolinas start stocking up on essentials!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Well exact repeats never happen but if you look at where we are going with the climate cycle with the PDO and AMO, it's the same as where we were in the 1950s, and thus we must be concerned that the same kind of pattern can yield the same kind of results. That's why you hear Joe Bastardi always pounding away at the New England hurricane idea because it happened in the '50s and could happen again soon. The east coast was slammed in the 1950s and they're overdue for some big ones. Way overdue. A major hurricane hasn't hit the eastern seaboard north of Florida since Fran of 1996.
Hmmmm..... u r right on that... everthing, no matter how big in the ATL, had wound down to cat 1/2 by the time it hit the coast....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
I think TD5 is starting to look more organized, notice the bands on the northern side becoming more evident and not squished as earlier today. Nice symmetrical, broad look.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
563. srada
Quoting Levi32:


Well exact repeats never happen but if you look at where we are going with the climate cycle with the PDO and AMO, it's the same as where we were in the 1950s, and thus we must be concerned that the same kind of pattern can yield the same kind of results. That's why you hear Joe Bastardi always pounding away at the New England hurricane idea because it happened in the '50s and could happen again soon. The east coast was slammed in the 1950s and they're overdue for some big ones. Way overdue. A major hurricane hasn't hit the eastern seaboard north of Florida since Fran of 1996.


Floyd 1999 hit NC..even though it hit as a strong Cat 2, it was projected at landfall as a 4..I know a Category 2 might not be considered a major but it did a lot of damage..yes the east coast is way overdue
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting srada:
Levi, that was a great analysis..a storm for the carolinas? Scary thought..I appreciate how you spell out everything that even the most unknowledgeable person as myself could understand the weather..You are doing a great job!!


Thanks! I'm glad you liked it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was sure hoping to get a bit of rain here in Houston out of TD5 but it looks like we will have to wait... and burn.. and wait.. Im going to visit the 94 degree pool... Still cooler than the ambient temp outside..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Instead of removing his comments,just ban him.
***poof***
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
surface llc is about 50 miles ssw of panama city!!!,moving wnw link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay, because someone asked, I'm volunteering my theory concerning the lack of hurricanes so far.

1. Solar minimum DOES play a role in tropical storm development as it is now proven that the depth of the atmosphere shrinks from 400 miles to around 280. This is bound to generate some sort of effect. Heat has less distance to travel to escape our atmosphere, so is heat transferring out faster and more efficiently from the upper atmospher right now?
2. The cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has started. Temps from Canada to N. Mexico along the coast have been abnormally low. Solar Minimums which occur during Cool PDO cycles have repeatedly demonstrated very low hurricane counts.
3. The repeated presence of dry air. If we were receiving the normal amount of energy from the sun would this be happening? Are we seeing a pattern of air currents which drags more dry air over tropical regions?

Offsetting my observations are the high SSTs in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic. Are we seeing a lack of cloud formation (due to Solar Minimum effects) which leads to more sunlight reaching the surface of the water? Cooler, dryer, clearer air suppressing clouds, but warmer surface water temps?

These are just observations/questions of mine. We have not witnessed a Solar Minimum during a cool PDO phase in the modern satellite era. The last time the PDO switched was in 1978/1979! Will the next 30 years be an entirely new ballgame as far as forecasting goes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well Stennis Space Center doesn't think TD 5 will be much of anything. They just released an email saying they'll be open for business and winds speeds of 30 – 40 mph can be expected. Winds could begin impacting the coast this evening and spread inland after midnight tonight and persisting through Friday August 13, 2010. Potential for rains of 3 to 8 inches during this event.

Local coastal flooding is expected at about 3 to 5 feet above normal
tides.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
555. srada
Levi, that was a great analysis..a storm for the carolinas? Scary thought..I appreciate how you spell out everything that even the most unknowledgeable person as myself could understand the weather..You are doing a great job!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A new center of relocation appears to be taking place about just west of Fort Myers, FL seen on their radar. Thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
quoted from post4
Since this storm crossed Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, 94L had been headed toward Havana,Cuba then Freeport,Texas, turned into TropicalDepressionFive while heading toward IntracoastalCity,Louisiana, then headed toward PortArthur,Texas, Destin,Florida and Galveston,Texas.
After TD5 had headed toward Waveland,Mississippi then IntracoastalCity (again)...
- Time and Date - - Location
11pmEDT 10Aug - 26.2N84.2W
02amEDT 11Aug - 26.3N84.5W
05amEDT 11Aug - 26.8N85.1W
07amCDT 11Aug - 27.1N85.8W
10amCDT 11Aug - 27.8N86.8W
...TD5 has been heading toward NewOrleans,Louisiana
Copy&paste 26.0N84.1W-26.2N84.2W, 26.2N84.2W-26.3N84.5W, 26.3N84.5W-26.8N85.1W, 26.8N85.1W-27.1N85.8W, 27.1N85.8W-27.8N86.8W, 30.3n89.5w, 29.6n92.1w, 27.8N86.8W-29.7n89.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
50 SaintPatrick "Where do you get this information from?"

The locations of Invests are usually from WeatherUnderground's Tropical front page link (as Coordinates under the storm name).
This time the NHC got coy with its data, and this site didn't receive Invest updates for 18hours.
So I turned to www.tropicalatlantic.com (linked as Location above) which apparently receives it's data more directly from the USNavy's ATCF (AtlanticTropicalCycloneForecast) rather than filtered through the NationalHurricaneCenter.

Then I place the last two location coordinates into the GreatCircleMapper (linked to above) to obtain a heading. And a map on the screen that I can eyeball get a feel for about where the storm would be heading for landfall IF it were to continue traveling in the same direction (which it won't).

I then enter airport into GoogleMaps searchengine, and locate the airport nearest the spot I eyeballed. I then either use GoogleMaps' "more info" to find the airport code, or Wikipedia to find the coordinates to the nearest city, which I link with the last storm coordinate to obtain a general heading.

Usually that guesstimated landfall heading doesn't match the storm heading close enough to exactly for my purpose of locating a landfall point.
Then it's just tinkering with the (usually the tenths of a degree) digits of the airport or city coordinate until the heading between the last storm coordinate and the landfall coordinate matches the heading between the storm's last two coordinates.

After typing up the first landfall location report, the rest is just a matter of redoing the process for the latest two storm coordinates, then adding the result to a minorly edited copy&paste of my previous report.
(I copy&paste my last report over the previous report into Notepad for reproduction&editing later; as well as keep a copy of the storm's path coordinates)
eg 94LthenTD5 26.2N82.3W-26.2N82.6W-25.7N82.7W-25.4N82.7W-25.5N83.0W-25.8N83.7W-
26.0N84.1W-26.2N84.2W-26.3N84.5W-26.8N85.1W-27.1N85.8W-27.8N86.8W-28.0N87.0W

As for why, somebody'll hafta ask for that diatribe. For now, let's say that:
I believe that folks have a marvelous ability to perceive patterns, and that
the NHC habitually acts as if "more facts will just confuse people".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Krycek1984:
I know that there has been a lot of analysis concerning a very active season and conditions that are ripe for tropical development. I have enjoyed all of the blogs, especially StormW's, describing why this is.

To play devil's advocate, are there any conditions in place that could hinder tropical development this season? I see a lot of "groupthink" and there must be data supporting a somewhat quiet, or even "average", season.
I had hoped to ask a similar qtn in the hurricanehaven show on Tuesday, but got back too late. I think one obvious factor is the TUTT and associated ULLs. I remember Drak a couple years ago pointing out that basically nothing happens in the ATL if that TUTT is set up right. I also remember seeing a graph / chart of some kind that illustrated why the optimum storm formation period was between 15 Aug and 15 Oct. There's info out there, but digging it up is the challenge.

Quoting sammywammybamy:



Agreed.

I Wonder How the high will set up.
uh.... let's not go there....

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morn HJ!
Nice site!

Thanks Doug. A little behind on WU...work and web design require lots of time. UGH!
Hey, HJ. re-Link, pls....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting StormW:


It's possible for a short stall, however it looks like it could just slow, before starting to curve. It may be trying to get better organized, as if you saw Levi's Tidbit, water vapor loop imagery indicates the deep layer ridge to the north, is now becoming oriented, with the flow now more out of the SE-NW, and should be providing a diffluent flow over the depression.

WATER VAPOR LOOP
thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6880
Quoting Cotillion:
Levi.. Storm..

As the 1950s was mentioned (one of more interesting hurricane decades) due to the cold PDO (as that the previous one started around 46/47, I think) and 500mb anomalies.

Not only did that decade love to take hurricanes into land, it also loved to spin up majors. The seasons weren't not necessarily majorly hot on numbers (though pre-satellite era can somewhat skew that), but the hurricanes were generally big and nasty.

As the AMO will likely wind down by 2025 or so, do you think a historical repeat of that decade could well be on the cards?

(Imagining this blog with a 1950 repeat. Yeesh.)


Well exact repeats never happen but if you look at where we are going with the climate cycle with the PDO and AMO, it's the same as where we were in the 1950s, and thus we must be concerned that the same kind of pattern can yield the same kind of results. That's why you hear Joe Bastardi always pounding away at the New England hurricane idea because it happened in the '50s and could happen again soon. The east coast was slammed in the 1950s and they're overdue for some big ones. Way overdue. A major hurricane hasn't hit the eastern seaboard north of Florida since Fran of 1996.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


LOL, yup just hunting for mischief. Still waiting for the real start of the season and when it comes I don't want it taking people by surprise.


Levi, do you think TD 5 will become Danielle?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its going to be difficult to defuse all that heat content in the GOM, Carribean, & the rest of the Atlantic back to normal levels this winter without having any efficient storms to equalize it, either way... If this season doesnt meet par. The potential fuel for next season could even be higher.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



ScienceDaily: Your source for the latest research news and science breakthroughs -- updated daily

Stratospheric Water Vapor Is a Global Warming Wild Card


ScienceDaily (Feb. 1, 2010) %u2014 A 10 percent drop in water vapor ten miles above Earth's surface has had a big impact on global warming, say researchers in a study published online January 28 in the journal Science. The findings might help explain why global surface temperatures have not risen as fast in the last ten years as they did in the 1980s and 1990s.


Observations from satellites and balloons show that stratospheric water vapor has had its ups and downs lately, increasing in the 1980s and 1990s, and then dropping after 2000. The authors show that these changes occurred precisely in a narrow altitude region of the stratosphere where they would have the biggest effects on climate.

Water vapor is a highly variable gas and has long been recognized as an important player in the cocktail of greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide, methane, halocarbons, nitrous oxide, and others -- that affect climate.

"Current climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface. But this is different -- it's a thin wedge of the upper atmosphere that packs a wallop from one decade to the next in a way we didn't expect," says Susan Solomon, NOAA senior scientist and first author of the study.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Levi.. Storm..

As the 1950s was mentioned (one of more interesting hurricane decades) due to the cold PDO (as that the previous one started around 46/47, I think) and 500mb anomalies.

Not only did that decade love to take hurricanes into land, it also loved to spin up majors. The seasons weren't not necessarily majorly hot on numbers (though pre-satellite era can somewhat skew that), but the hurricanes were generally big and nasty.

As the AMO will likely wind down by 2025 or so, do you think a historical repeat of that decade could well be on the cards?

(Imagining this blog with a 1950 repeat. Yeesh.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Just finished watching your video!

What are ya trying to do? Scare folks son?

(Just Kidding). Glad you showed the 500mb positive anomaly. Same thing you and I have been showing and talking about on here over the past week or two. We get that, and cooling over the central plains and/or eastward in combination with the MJO and the following...well...



LOL, yup just hunting for mischief. Still waiting for the real start of the season and when it comes I don't want it taking people by surprise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW, Are still seeing a possible stall with TD5. Also on the current Satt, it looks to be organizing a little, or are my eyes playing tricks on me again?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6880
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Maybe this will be the kick the season needed.

Hopefully this season never gets kicked. Bad possibilities...
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Question for any who care to take a stab.

What's the area just east of the Bahama's. I know there is a tropical wave in the area but I don't see this area mentioned anywhere? Looks as if a weak area of LP is forming?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
536. poknsnok

fallinstorms is a visionary...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fallinstorms:
everything is ripping!!!

ULL Are too strong this year

and its too dry

global warming is causing all this dry dust

too dry for a hurricane to form


you are the first one to mention the increased temps in the northern hemisphere actually drying out the atmosphere and limiting formation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morn HJ!
Nice site!

Thanks Doug. A little behind on WU...work and web design require lots of time. UGH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, u should watch Levi's video if u haven't yet. It will give u the heebie jeebies...


Hmmmm... you are just full of "sharing" today. I watched it and will try to share back with you anything I see in this area.... heh heh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


That was a good find, thanks for sharing!
Just passing on the good stuff from earlier this a.m.

Table 1: La Niña years since 1950 along with the date of 2nd hurricane formation and the seasonal ACE accumulated in each year.
Year ASO Nino 3.4 2nd Hurricane Formation Date Seasonal ACE
1995 -0.66 1-Aug 227
1970 -1.04 2-Aug 40
1956 -0.63 10-Aug 54
1955 -1.39 12-Aug 199
1971 -0.63 15-Aug 97
1973 -1.2 20-Aug 48
1950 -0.75 20-Aug 243
1999 -1.01 22-Aug 177
1998 -1.17 25-Aug 182
1954 -0.98 27-Aug 113
1975 -1.34 30-Aug 76
1974 -0.53 31-Aug 68
2007 -0.92 2-Sep 74
1964 -0.86 3-Sep 170
1961 -0.52 3-Sep 205
1988 -1.55 9-Sep 103


Source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/10/klotzbach-on-atlantic-hurricane-season-analysis/

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Oh where oh where can my Danielle be. Somewhere between Tampa and Texas to me. She got to get one eye for us to see.Please oh please don't take her mr. Ull from me. I wish I good sing it but it would only make it worse.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Maybe this will be the kick the season needed.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Watts is a phony meteorologist who flunked out of Purdue his sophomore year and claimed for years to be AMS certified when he wasn't. And Watts does allow imaginary cyber creations to post. So there is nothing reputable about Anthony Watts.


Eh, Klotzbach is a big and respected name, and he posts there. That means something. Anyway, thanks for the article Baha...was nice to see his take on things.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
525. Levi32 1:15 PM CDT on August 11, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Levi.


Storm.

LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 577 - 527

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
52 °F
Overcast