Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

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Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:




I can see what hes talking about but I don't think they go hand in hand all the time.
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Hey guys, i've been lurking the blogs for about 4 years now, learned alot, and also heard a lot of bs. Buy hey, with the good comes the bad right? I've taken my experience, and created a small amateur hurricane website called South Florida Hurricane Center, a friend and i have really put a lot of hours and effort into making that website, so i hope you check it out. Thanks to all of you over the years for sharing your insights, and thoughts about the tropics. I've grown from a clueless citizen to a pretty knowledgeable individual when it comes to the tropics thanks to this blog.
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This seems like it is setting up to be The Year of the Upper Level Lows:0
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623. Jax82
One thing is for sure. We'll have Danielle by the end of September ;)
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Quoting angiest:


Unfortunately it is right between two NWS WSR-88D installations (Tampa and Key West) instead of near one...


No, that's the local long range Doppler used by the NBC affiliate, not one of the NWS stations. It's more accurate than the looking at the Tampa or Key West ones for our area, that's for sure. But if there were a spin "just off the coast", you'd see it on there.
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DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY this been going on all year long with depressions and with invests... we are going to have this year 25 invests and ten depressions only two hurricanes only six tropical storms
Member Since: August 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 451
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Quoting RainyEyes:
I am in the cape as well...we have seen several bands this morning (SE CC) it IS sunny here atm, but clouds are in the distance rolling in again.


I'm in the N Cape, close to Pine Island. I see those darker clouds too.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well hello everyone!
Seems td5 and 93L dont want to do much as of now since both look worse than yesterday.
The only one that looks better is the wave east of the islands.


But not much going on on the surface.


Your kidding right?

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617. JLPR2
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


We have half of a surface circulation present.


If we get the other half then we have something. XD
But as of now just a wind shift.
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TD5....Poof!
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Where is Stennis Space Center? I can't remember. TIA
Sheri


Mississippi/Louisiana line near I-10.
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Every storm dosent wind up in the great GOM believe or not, You are right that patterns can change which can be expected but thats not what it's setting up to be, the point was SE coast getting hit by a storm, not the GOM.

I don't think you understood the video the video. He showed that in years where that pattern set up that both the SE Coast and regions in the Northern Gulf Coast in that pattern.
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612. srada
Quoting Levi32:


It was a big storm like Srada pointed out, but a Cat 2 at landfall, not a major.



It was the biggest evacuation ever for a hurricane..4 states I believe because of the uncertainty of landfall..thats why you cant take these storms projected paths for certain..they have a "mind" of their own
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Where is Stennis Space Center? I can't remember. TIA
Sheri


SW Mississippi. Hancock County....
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well hello everyone!
Seems td5 and 93L dont want to do much as of now since both look worse than yesterday.
The only one that looks better is the wave east of the islands.


But not much going on on the surface.


We have half of a surface circulation present.
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Quoting RainyEyes:
Link


That is the local radar for ft myers


Unfortunately it is right between two NWS WSR-88D installations (Tampa and Key West) instead of near one...
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I am in the cape as well...we have seen several bands this morning (SE CC) it IS sunny here atm, but clouds are in the distance rolling in again.
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606. JLPR2
Well hello everyone!
Seems td5 and 93L dont want to do much as of now since both look worse than yesterday.
The only one that looks better is the wave east of the islands.


But not much going on on the surface.
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Quoting btwntx08:
ummm no polls please


There is nothing wrong with polls, I do them all the time. Just skip over it if you dont like it, Rob.
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Quoting efallon28:


I live in Ft. Myers, been watching radar all day, and I really don't see what you're talking about. The clouds have been dissipating and it's gotten much sunnier here in the last 2 hours. The storms offshore are consistantly moving N to NE. I'll keep looking though.


I'm on the Cape and we have gotten band after band all day. No clearing here.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
QUICK POLL
5PM UPDATE TD5
A.30 MPH TD
B.35 MPH TD
C.40 MPH TS
D. DISSIPATED


60% A

40% D
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ummm no polls please
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting Tropicaddict:
Well Stennis Space Center doesn't think TD 5 will be much of anything. They just released an email saying they'll be open for business and winds speeds of 30 – 40 mph can be expected. Winds could begin impacting the coast this evening and spread inland after midnight tonight and persisting through Friday August 13, 2010. Potential for rains of 3 to 8 inches during this event.

Local coastal flooding is expected at about 3 to 5 feet above normal
tides.


Where is Stennis Space Center? I can't remember. TIA
Sheri
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600. xcool
D
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Quoting StormChaser81:
Dont think the center has relocated the NHC is portraying the right position, there just a chunk of energy there off west FL coast.

Levi explains it real good in his tropical tidbit or what ever its called.

It's just a huge broad low pressure system now.

If you look on long range radar out of Tampa you can see the whole moisture fetch moving in one direction.


You got it right lol.
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4 to 5" of rain S of Daytona by radar est. It also looks as if the Orlando area could see similar rainfall totals as the ECSB is moving in and will collide with storms coming up from the south.
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Quoting stillwaiting:



what about floyd 99


It was a big storm like Srada pointed out, but a Cat 2 at landfall, not a major.

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Quoting NASA101:


Agreed - the details of the exact landfall is not important right now - as this thing could easily wind up in the Gulf depending on the patterns in 2 weeks time....


Every storm dosent wind up in the great GOM believe or not, You are right that patterns can change which can be expected but thats not what it's setting up to be, the point was SE coast getting hit by a storm, not the GOM.
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Quoting stillwaiting:



what about floyd 99

it had weakened before it hit east coast
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Link

Radar imagery of where the MLC is, and where a new low level circulation could be developing?
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Link


That is the local radar for ft myers
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Quoting Grecojdw:


I noticed that too. Maybe one of the more knowledgeable ones on this site could analyze this possibility.


I live in Ft. Myers, been watching radar all day, and I really don't see what you're talking about. The clouds have been dissipating and it's gotten much sunnier here in the last 2 hours. The storms offshore are consistantly moving N to NE. I'll keep looking though.
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Dont think the center has relocated the NHC is portraying the right position, there just a chunk of energy there off west FL coast.

Levi explains it real good in his tropical tidbit or what ever its called.

It's just a huge broad low pressure system now.

If you look on long range radar out of Tampa you can see the whole moisture fetch moving in one direction.
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The flooding death toll in China, including those from the recent landslide, has reached 2,570. Link
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Is it typical to have this many invests that do not develop into much? Are they just identifying invests earlier and where they may not have in the past?
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The wave I am watching is near 10-15W.
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586. xcool

I would start wondering why things cannot get going.


too many ULL 2010
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Quoting Levi32:


Well exact repeats never happen but if you look at where we are going with the climate cycle with the PDO and AMO, it's the same as where we were in the 1950s, and thus we must be concerned that the same kind of pattern can yield the same kind of results. That's why you hear Joe Bastardi always pounding away at the New England hurricane idea because it happened in the '50s and could happen again soon. The east coast was slammed in the 1950s and they're overdue for some big ones. Way overdue. A major hurricane hasn't hit the eastern seaboard north of Florida since Fran of 1996.



what about floyd 99
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Not looking good at all (or looking good, depending on your view point) for TD5. Very broad, and disorganized. Hopefully it will bring rain to those who need it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24456
Quoting angiest:


What radar site is near there?


I'm not sure. I don't live in SouthFl. Does anybody from there no of a site for the local radar in that region?
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And by the PDO in 1946/47, I mean going cold like it has now, not going warm (i.e. not a warm period from 46 to 08).

Just to clarify.

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581. srada
Quoting NASA101:


Let's just wait until "THAT" wave is around 40W - it's currently around 15 degs EAST, before people in the Carolinas start stocking up on essentials!! LOL


sorry but Im already stocked up..dont want to be the one in the grocery store at the last minute trying to buy the last loaf of bread because I was still waiting on "THAT" wave..just keeping it real here..
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Recon is flying TD5 now. Looks like the got the center now around 27.99N 87.49W based on wind shifts.
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Quoting fallinstorms:
i haven't been banend yet because i speak the truth

If u speak the truth then yesterday u wanted TD5 to hit texas and said that it wasnt going to hit Louisania?? How's that speaking the truth.. LOL
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Quoting NASA101:


Agreed - the details of the exact landfall is not important right now - as this thing could easily wind up in the Gulf depending on the patterns in 2 weeks time....


And assuming it even develops. The models could easily drop the storm altogether, but the overall pattern tells us to be on the lookout for development regardless. The fact that storms are showing up on ensemble means only reinforces that concern.
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Yes, history repeating itself exactly in meteorology is a rarity, then usually due to mere coincidence.

But, thanks for your answers. Interesting years ahead, methinks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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